Trump and Juncker sign commercial armistice to everyone's surprise

In detail, the Americans and the Europeans are committed to setting up a working group for more transatlantic free trade. "We have agreed to work towards the goal of zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies on non-automotive industrial goods" Trump said in reading the joint European statement.

Meanwhile, the threat of taxing up to 25% imports into the United States of European automobiles is suspended while the two parties will work to end the war of steel and steel. aluminum even if the duties imposed by Washington and the reprisals decided by Brussels are not suspended. Europeans are also committing themselves to buying more natural gas and American soybeans. The two economic groups will also work for a reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Trump played it at the "North Korean"

What are the lessons to be learned from the case? First, the Europeans got the main thing: the immediate threat of customs duties on the automobile is postponed. "We have agreed that no additional rights will be decided while we negotiate" badured Mr. Juncker after the meeting. The communique does not set a deadline for negotiations, which satisfies the Europeans.

The successive ultimatums launched by the Americans on steel and aluminum put them in a syringe and led, ultimately, to the imposition of rights. The car is excluded from the zero tariff goal, which means that Europe does not capitulate in advance on the subject.

Why did Donald Trump move? The explanation, always easier ex post seems largely internal.

The grumbling goes up to the American car manufacturers but also to the most protectionist industrialists and old darlings of the tenant of the White House, such the maker of Harley Davidson motorcycles or Whirlpool washing machine maker who announced this week of poor results due to the trade war. Republicans are also increasingly on their way to mid-term elections, especially in Midwestern farmland, hit by Chinese and Mexican retaliation for soybeans and pork. As a result, Donald Trump had to announce Tuesday, 12 billion dollars (10.2 billion euros) of aid to farmers, who have not convinced, elected officials believe that the best way to correct the effects of wars is not to bail out its victims but to stop these wars.

Add to this the ever-shifting influence games in the White House: the highly protectionist commercial adviser Peter Navarro was absent on Monday and he is the economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, former Reagan team and free trade who seems to have had the ear of the president. The former TV commentator had prepared Tuesday night a draft communiqué with the teams of Mr. Juncker. Result: Donald Trump, rather than playing "Iranian" played it in the "North Korean", and he made a spectacular turnaround.

The Europeans gave him some symbolic pledges: the "zero tariff" objective was a long-standing challenge by Mr Trump to the EU. The purchase of soybeans, the price of which drops and which is not subject to import duties in Europe, may offer an outlet for "farmers" hit by Chinese counter-sanctions – ] "I thank you for that, Jean-Claude" Mr. Trump said; the acquisition of liquefied natural gas, which will please the oil friends of the tenant of the White House and goes in the direction of a less geostrategic nesting between the EU – in particular Germany, via the pipeline through the Baltic Northstream – and Russia.

Unity on the backs of the Chinese

In the negotiations, the Americans contradicted each other in front of Mr. Trump and the dumbfounded European delegation. The hardest – trade representative Robert Lighthizer, or even treasure secretary Steve Mnuchin – would have wanted to include agricultural products in the zero tariff goal. Mr. Juncker said he did not have a mandate from the Twenty-Eight and he suggested that in this case, the Europeans would demand the end of "Buy American Act", sacred cow to United States, which protects the country's companies in awarding public contracts.

Finally, the unit was rebuilt on the backs of the Chinese. The reform of the WTO implies, according to the words of the statement read by Donald Trump, of "deal with the problem of unfair trade practices, including the theft of intellectual property, the forced transfer of technology, industrial subsidies, distortions created by state-owned enterprises and overcapacity ". Thus, Washington and Brussels are now block, according to Mr. Trump: "The United States and the EU together account for more than 850 million citizens and account for half of the world's GDP [produit intérieur brut] . In other words, together we make up more than 50% of the trade. If we team up, we can make our planet better, safer and more prosperous.

Two questions remain. Firstly the reaction within the EU to this negotiation with Trump's America at less than one year of the European elections.

Mr. Juncker believes that this is not a revival of the transatlantic free trade treaty, strongly contested by public opinion, including French and German. He believes that he does not need a negotiating mandate and that it will be requested, if necessary, from the EU Member States, once the working group, chaired by EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will have reached the end of his work – "in a few months" hopes Juncker

Second interrogation, will Donald Trump do with the EU what it did in the spring with China: announce an armistice in the trade war and set off again to attack after being criticized by its public opinion and its own advisers? But for now, Europeans have little better option than to trust him. They hope to have finished negotiations by invectives and tweets interposed. The answer will come quickly.