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Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden shake hands as they appear on the scene for the third major democratic debate of the presidential campaign season of 2020.
Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images
Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, who hold distinct benefits, have split from the overcrowded Democratic presidential field, reveals a new poll NBC News / Wall Street Journal.
In the survey conducted after the third debate in the Democratic Party debate series, the former vice president registers 31%, against 25% for the Massachusetts senator. At 14%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is ahead of Warren by a double-digit margin, while 15 other candidates receive support of 7% or less.
Biden strengthens his advantage over dominance among three groups of primary Democratic voters. He commands 49% of African Americans, 46% of seniors and 42% of moderate and conservative Democrats.
But after months of steady progress, Warren has tremendous strengths. She is Biden's head for nearly two-on-one among Liberals and Democrats under the age of 35, as well as among whites, and has a double-digit advantage among those seeking a large-scale change in the post-Trump era. This latter group represents a majority of the Democratic electorate.
In addition, Warren is now an obvious enthusiasm. In total, 70 percent of Democratic primary voters say they are enthusiastic or confident about his candidacy, more than for Biden or Sanders.
As a result, 45% of Democratic primary voters call Warren first or second choice. That compares to 41% for Biden, 29% for Sanders, 19% for South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and 14% for California Senator Kamala Harris.
"Warren becoming a widely acceptable choice is a very significant development in a multi-candidate field," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, who leads the NBC / WSJ poll with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. The telephone survey of 506 voters of the Democratic primary, conducted from September 13 to 16, has an error margin of 4.36 percentage points.
Hart cautioned against assuming that the form of the race had hardened. Earlier struggles for nominations, including Barack Obama's battle against Hillary Clinton in 2008 and that of John Kerry against Howard Dean and others four years earlier, have shown a propensity for last-minute developments.
"We are in September," said the veteran pollster.
What is clear to this day is that the largest number of Democrats overwhelmed has little to show for the first nine months of 2019. Aside from Biden and Warren, only Sanders has always had a large and dedicated clientele.
"The race does not expand," McInturff observed.
The riding of Sanders remains concentrated among Democrats under 35 years old. He gets 33% of the vote, against 25% for Warren.
The so-called Socialist Democrat also receives 19% of the liberal primary voters, the same share that Biden receives, while Warren commands 36%. Now competitive in all areas, it ranks first or second among all subgroups.
After his lively debate earlier this year, Harris retreated. After receiving 13% in July, she now gets 5%; the proportion of Democratic primary voters enthusiastic or comfortable with his candidacy rose from 52% in March to 48%.
Buttigieg, the main fundraiser among applicants in the second quarter of 2019, remains at a 7% support. Like Harris, 49% of primary voters say they are enthusiastic or comfortable with his candidacy.
Among the others, the maverick entrepreneur Andrew Yang has reached 4%. This surpasses Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar with 2%.
Seven others – former representatives Beto O'Rourke and John Delaney, current representative Tulsi Gabbard, executive billionaire Tom Steyer, Senator Michael Bennet, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and the former Obama's government member Julian Castro – only draw 1%.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock and Representative Tim Ryan do not even register.
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