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Joe Biden enters the list of the first Democratic presidential candidates in the latest ABC News / Washington Post poll, but with a decided bias for older voters who might define the party contest as a generational confrontation.
In an open-ended question, 17% of Democrats and Independents with Democratic Tendencies support Biden, including 11% for Bernie Sanders, 5% for Pete Buttigieg, 4% each for Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke and Elizabeth Warren and 1 or 2% for Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and non-candidates Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.
See PDF for complete results, charts and tables.
Many things can change, as the 35% who do not have an opinion testify, and it is not surprising that the two leaders are the most notorious: a former vice president and the finalist of the party in 2016. Biden announced his candidacy last Thursday.
The generational gap between Biden, 76, and Sanders, 77, who built his campaign for the insurgents in 2016 is largely based on the support of young voters. Today, Biden is easily ahead of Sanders (27-6%), in the 50s and over, against 9-15% – Sanders is ahead of the numerically, but not significantly – among those under 50 years old. Biden is particularly weak in children under 30 years old. with only 3% support versus 13% for Sanders (on average the last two ABC / Post surveys for an adequate sample size).
Karen Pulfer Focht / Reuters
That said, age is not the only differentiator. As noted below, Sanders follows Biden, particularly among women, mainstream democrats (as opposed to democratically-independent independents), moderates, blacks, college graduates, and urban dwellers. And the race goes 2-1 for Biden – 19-10% – when limited to the voters registered in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
Strategy and Electability
There are party divisions among democrats and independents with democratic tendencies over strategy and the possibility of being elected. They are divided between 48 and 44% on whether it is better for the party to nominate a candidate who can best energize the Democratic base or who is best placed to convince the independents, often the main voters in the elections. national. Lean Democrats also divide between 47% and 39% if they prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues or who has the best chance of defeating Donald Trump.
The strategy question shows some differences in the choice of candidates. Among those who think it's best to choose the candidate who can energize the party's base, Biden is leading Sanders by 18 to 7%. Among the most concerned with the use of independents, the two are essentially equal, 17-16%. (Buttigieg has 8% support among those seeking self-employment, compared with 3% of those who are more concerned with bottom-up motivation.)
Kamil Krzaczynski / AFP / Getty Images
It is a logical result; Sanders' support in 2016 came from independents rather than Democrats with a margin of almost 2-1.
There is no difference on this issue between liberal and moderate democrats, but there is a difference of race: non-whites, between 53 and 39%, prefer to give energy to the Democratic base, while whites roughly equally, between 43 and 48%. (Non-whites make up nearly half of all leaning Democrats, 48%, compared to 20% of leaning Republicans.)
For its part, the question of whether the leaning Democrats prefer a candidate who is closest to them on the issues or who is most able to defeat Trump does not have a significant impact on the preference of the candidates. Biden has almost identical support in these two groups, respectively 17 and 18%; Sanders, 13 and 9%.
Groups
Among the demographic groups, Biden enjoys virtually identical support from women and men – 16 and 18% respectively – regardless of reports from several women that he would have put them at ease by the way he had hugged them or touched them, and criticized the hearings of Clarence Thomas / Anita Hill in 1991. Sanders, for one, does a little better with men than with women, 14 versus 8%.
Sanders struggled to win the support of non-whites in 2016, losing them to Hillary Clinton 71-28% in the primary polls. Today, Biden leads the Sanders group among non-whites by 16 to 10%, including 19-3% among blacks (against nearly 5 to 8% among Hispanics).
Michael Wyke / AP
Sanders also fought among Democrats and political moderates, losing them to Clinton from 64 to 35 percent and 62 to 36 percent, respectively. Today, Biden enjoys double the support of Sanders among Democrats and moderates.
Biden is slightly better with college graduates than non-graduates, 22 versus 14%, while Sanders works almost equally in both groups, 12 and 10%. Warren has 8 percentage points better with graduates than non-graduates, and Buttigieg 7 points better. Non-graduates, who tend to be less politically engaged, are much more likely than graduates to have no current preference.
Another difference in support profiles, Biden receives 18% support in urban centers, compared to 7% for Sanders.
The results presented in this report are not limited to registered voters, as there is ample time to register before the caucus and the start of the primary season in Iowa, February 3. Watching only registered voters does not make much difference in all cases, but Optics: As stated, Biden has a 2-1 lead over Sanders, 19-10%.
Whatever the case may be, all these results require an important context note: The first leaders are sometimes laureates, but not always. See, for example, Jeb Bush (2016), Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani (2008). Indeed, in congested Republican races, Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Scott Walker all voted competitively at the points of the 2016 campaign, as did Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michele Bachman and Sarah Palin in the 2012 race; everything is faded later. This is the beginning of the 2020 race – and if history teaches us a lesson, it's that campaigns matter.
Methodology
The ABC News / Washington Post survey was conducted by landline and cell phone from April 22 to 25, 2019, in English and Spanish, on a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The results have a sampling error margin of 3.5 points, including the calculation effect, for the full sample. This analysis is based on the results of 427 Democrats and independents with a democratic tendency, with a margin of error of 5.5 points. Partisan divisions are 29-26-36%, Democrat-Republican-Independent.
The survey was conducted on behalf of ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, NS, on a sample and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. View details of the methodology the inquiry here.
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