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Even with the phased approach, a sharp increase in the number of migrants poses a major challenge for the administration on how to manage their arrival – keeping them in detention centers or releasing them pending legal proceedings, which can take years given a long backlog. of cases. And Republicans plan to highlight any increases in the number of migrants or delays in their processing in campaign announcements, direct mail and debates during races across the country as part of a long-planned strategy to target to use immigration to try to win back Congress in the midterm elections next year.
“The administration is repeating the mistakes of 2015 by underestimating the power of a border security argument,” said Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, an immigrant advocacy group. And, as a result, they run the risk of losing the moderate voters who have said, ‘You know what, I want a more rational approach to immigration, but still one that protects us. “”
53% of voters say they are less likely to back Democrats for Congress due to increased numbers of migrants at the border, new poll by National Republican Senate Committee and Republican Governors Association says . 23 percent say they are more likely.
Republican National Committee spokeswoman Emma Vaughn called the expected lifting of Title 42 “dangerous” following other border policies which she said have already contributed to an increase in the number of migrants along the border. the border.
“As Republicans at the local, state and federal levels strive to lead our country through this growing crisis, Americans are taking note – voters across the country have rejected Biden’s failed leadership on the border,” he said. she declared.
For months, immigrant advocates and public health experts have said the policy surrounding the lifting of Title 42 was irrelevant: the use of the prescription is illegal, inhumane and not justified by public health.
“If the Biden administration thinks there is another reason to deny asylum seekers the right to a hearing, then they should invoke it. But they can’t use Title 42 as a pretext to regulate migratory flows, ”said Lee Gelernt, deputy director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Immigrant Rights Project.
“This is a political position, not a legal position,” said Gelernt, who is lead counsel in the ACLU case challenging the legality of the United States’ use of Title 42 to deport individuals. families.
But Democrats recognize that the politics surrounding the likely move are tricky at best.
A former Obama immigration official close to the Biden administration admitted Biden was vulnerable at the border. “Its number of immigrants is low, there is no doubt about it,” the person said. But for that to lower his overall approval rating, the person said, the lifting of Title 42 would have to result in “visual chaos at the border.”
Representative Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who has criticized the Biden administration’s immigration policy, said he looked forward to the lifting of the border closure for non-essential travel, which has crippled cities along the Mexican and Canadian borders accustomed to tourism, but know there will be major challenges with the lifting of Title 42.
The lifting of the rule “will provide another incentive and the drug cartels will start to say [to potential migrants]: ‘Hey, you can come in,’ Cuellar said, adding that border patrol officers and law enforcement along the border told him they expected this to be lifted soon. and that they are ready to deal with a new wave of migrants coming to seek asylum.
“It’s kind of a double-edged sword,” the Texas border Democrat said.
Biden is committed to creating a fair and humane immigration system, but his aides have found that a quick reversal of Trump’s policies can create logistical and political problems. A record number of unaccompanied children at the border attracted enormous attention to immigration early in his presidency. However, in recent weeks the border has been overshadowed by other issues, including Biden’s spending plans and sweeping vote restriction laws in several states.
A White House spokesman declined to comment on Title 42 except to say that the administration is working to rebuild the dilapidated asylum system and treat certain groups of people, including those who had been forced to ‘wait in Mexico for their case to be heard under another Trump-era politics.
The Homeland Security Ministry referred questions on Title 42 to comments by Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas earlier this week. In an interview with CBS, Mayorkas reiterated that Title 42 is “not an immigration policy” and that its use is determined by the Centers for Disease Control.
“He is motivated by what is in the best public health interest of the American people,” Mayorkas said.
Border officers have deported migrants more than 867,000 times using Title 42 since March 2020, according to figures from US Customs and Border Protection. Immigration experts, however, have made it clear that the number 867,000 does not necessarily correspond to individual migrants; There has been a high rate of recidivism, i.e. when migrants are deported and then attempt to cross again to the United States
In May, according to the most recent statistics available, more than 180,000 migrants were apprehended along the border and 112,302 were deported under Title 42, according to CBP. Of these, 38% were individuals who had attempted to cross at least once in the previous 12 months. The one-year average reunion rate was 15% for fiscal years 2014 to 2019, CBP said.
Earlier this year, the Biden administration was more vocal in its discussions on immigration – by holding regular media appeals to discuss the increase in the number of migrants arriving at the border. In early April, for example, the White House held a conference call with administration officials to discuss CBP’s monthly publication on the number of arrests. Since then, CBP has released the April and May apprehension figures late in the afternoon without appealing to the press to release details.
Republicans, however, made sure to highlight the monthly figures without mentioning that a majority of apprehended migrants are quickly deported under the Trump-era order. And looking ahead to 2022, they should make an even bigger effort as soon as Biden lifts the order, according to interviews with more than half a dozen political agents involved in the midterm elections.
“If Biden and Harris fully lift the highly effective Title 42 restrictions, which have already been made much less effective since taking office, then expect a tsunami of illegal migrants, and perhaps the worst time of the heat. summer, ”said Steve Cortes, a former Trump campaign aide who remains close to the former president. “It could be considerably worse than it already is now. “
In recent weeks, Republicans have stepped up their attacks, going to the border, writing letters and calling for investigations. The RNC bought a mobile billboard to highlight the increase in the number of migrants to coincide with Vice President Kamala Harris’s trip to the border last week. The NRSC ran one of its few announcements to date against Senator Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), arguing that his votes did not match his harsh rhetoric against Biden’s immigration policy. And the Congressional Republican National Committee has targeted a trio of House Democrats in border states, Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Tom O’Halleran of Arizona.
Republicans say they have already had some success – believing immigration played a role in the overthrow of the mayor’s seat in Hidalgo County, home of McAllen – and they are backed by a new poll showing Biden receives some of the lowest marks on the matter.
Trump first cited the little-known and sweeping Title 42 law in March 2020, directing federal officials to deport migrants who crossed the northern and southern borders instead of detaining and treating them – an effort that would aim to prevent the spread of the coronavirus in detention centers.
Biden continues to refuse most migrants he meets at the border, including single adults and most families, but has made exceptions for unaccompanied children to stay on humanitarian grounds.
Democratic lawmakers and public health experts have urged the administration to repeal the policy, arguing that migrants could be tested and isolated when they enter the country to help stop the spread of Covid-19. Even immigrant advocates who support Biden accuse the administration of continuing to use Title 42 to restrict immigration, a charge the administration denies.
The Biden administration is also debating whether or not to pursue a phased approach given that there is no public health rationale for letting in families and not single adults.
“There is no public health justification for distinguishing between single adults and families,” said Eleanor Acer, senior director of the refugee protection program at Human Rights First.
Lifting Title 42 for families and keeping it longer for single adults, Acer said, would have a disproportionate impact on African asylum seekers, many of whom do not travel with their families given the long distances from their countries. of origin, and LGBTQ asylum seekers who may be traveling alone or with people not recognized as their family by the Department of Homeland Security.
Ultimately, Acer said, advocates support the administration’s talks about improving the immigration system, but that doesn’t mean they can keep Title 42 in place while they find out.
“Yes, they still want to improve the asylum system,” she said. “But you can’t just stop enforcing our existing laws because you want to strengthen certain systems, staff them better and move them forward quickly. “
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