Biden’s approval rating in the polls has plummeted. Here’s why.

After nearly eight months of Morning Consult approval ratings above 50 percent, President Joe Biden took the plunge for the first time in late August. And he’s basically stayed there ever since.

A Morning Consult survey conducted Sept. 10-12 of more than 15,000 registered voters put Biden’s approval rating at 47%, compared to 49% disapproval. That’s a drop of around 10 points from a peak in February and March. (The pollster adjusted its weighting of the results in June.)

Morning Consult’s Biden poll trajectory syncs with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracking, which also finds that Biden’s approval rating plummets from around 54% on Memorial Day weekend to around 45% of here Labor Day.

The immediate cause of Biden’s downfall appears to be the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the critical coverage it generated. More generally, however, Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted throughout the summer as optimism about the end of the Covid-19 pandemic gave way to darker news regarding the delta variant and the l increase in cases and hospitalizations.

“One thing we’ve seen in our polls not just of the president – we’re also tracking the approval ratings of all 50 governors – one thing we’ve seen throughout this pandemic is no matter what the political decisions are. that are taken, there is a fairly strong correlation between the image of Covid and the approval rating of a governor, and therefore the approval rating of a president, ”explains Cameron Easley, editor of Morning Consult.

Morning consultation

Although circumstances vary, this type of erosion that occurs six to eight months after the start of a president’s first term is far from unprecedented.

President Donald Trump, you may remember, fell below 40% approval in late summer and fall 2017 after pushing an unpopular bill to repeal Obamacare that failed by a single Senate vote, then followed that by defending white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia. Perhaps more analogously for Biden, in August 2009, President Barack Obama’s approval rating fell below 50% for the first time (according to Gallup) as Republicans publicly agitated against his will. ” adopt health care legislation.

Still, Biden’s approval slide – coming amid indications that Senate Democrats lack the votes to pass a $ 3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill that was supposed to represent one of the major legislative achievements of the president – is an unfavorable development for Democrats. They are heading into a midterm cycle, where the president’s party typically faces an uphill battle to retain control of the House, and with another challenge from Trump or a successor likely looming in 2024.

“It is clear that Trump was in a worse situation four years ago than Biden is now,” Easley said. “But given the margins of the House and Senate, what solace can the White House and the Biden administration take in this fact? I don’t really think it will mean much to them.

To get a 30,000-foot view of why Biden’s approval rating has gone down and what that means, Vox spoke to Easley; a transcript of this conversation, slightly edited for length and clarity, follows.

Aaron Rupar

As we speak today [on September 14], how has Biden’s number held up since falling below 50 percent last month?

Cameron Easley

Today’s numbers, which are based on polls conducted from the 12th to 14th, we have his approval rate at 47% and his disapproval rate at 50%. for the first time.

Aaron Rupar

Obviously, there is a tendency to compare these numbers with those of Trump. Has Trump already reached 47% in the Morning Consult poll, or would that be a highlight for him?

Cameron Easley

It reached 47%. We had a sort of honeymoon period captured in our polls in early 2017 that a lot of pollsters didn’t notice, but eventually things got back more to the industry average.

You will recall that back then, in August and September 2017, things were pretty brutal for Trump as well. The party had failed to complete its multi-year quest to repeal and replace Obamacare. This caused a lot of internal food disputes between then Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Trump himself – just ugly stuff that got out in the open. And then, of course, the gruesome scenes in Charlottesville and the way Trump responded to them also helped push his numbers down.

So looking at summer 2017 and summer 2021, they were both bad enough for the [presidents], all things Considered. Of course, it’s worth noting that at that time, four years ago, the floor for Trump was already apparently much, much lower. At that time it was at 43% and by August 2017 it had fallen to 39%.

So it’s clear that Trump was in a worse situation four years ago than Biden is now. But given the margins of the House and Senate, what solace can the White House and the Biden administration take in this fact? I don’t really think it will mean much to them.

Aaron Rupar

Obama experienced a similar decline around this time for the first time. We’ve talked before about how Trump’s polls slipped during his first fall to power. So it is not something unusual.

Is it too early for Biden’s White House to worry that his approval is underwater? Maybe it’s better to have an ebb at the start of your term than later.

Cameron Easley

I think the main concern of the White House right now – and this comes back to something that has been more historically trending for the Democratic Party – is that when they’re in power sometimes their base pulls out a bit. And I think one of the big questions for Democrats heading into next year’s midterms is what happens to their enthusiasm without Trump being so much involved in the equation.

One thing we’ve seen with the fallout from Afghanistan’s image is that Biden’s high endorsement count among Democrats fell below 50% for the first time. This is exactly where they are now. So I think it’s a concern.

We saw something similar happen to Trump four years ago, and those high numbers of approvals among Republican voters didn’t really recover until the tax law was enacted. So I think you can say that this recent move in Biden’s approval rating is probably adding a bit of pressure to how they feel about reconciliation and infrastructure.

I don’t think “Build Back Better” is going to completely change the medium-term outlook for Biden and the Democrats, but I think shifting the party’s top priorities would probably go a long way in boosting grassroots enthusiasm, and this is something that seems to be a problem right now that could be resolved in a few months by shifting these priorities.

Aaron Rupar

The approvals trendline for Biden has gradually declined as Covid experienced a resurgence this summer. How do you think voters feel about the blame Biden receives for Covid? And if we prepare for another tough winter with spikes in cases and full hospitals, how politically problematic will that be for Biden?

Cameron Easley

One thing we’ve seen in our polls not just of the president – we’re also tracking the approval ratings of all 50 governors – one thing we’ve seen throughout this pandemic is whatever political decisions go through it. are taken, there is a nice strong correlation between the image of Covid and the approval rating of a governor, and therefore the approval rating of a president. We have seen this continue this summer.

In addition to just tracking the overall approval rating, we are also tracking the issue approval rating, and we’ve seen Biden’s management perceptions of Covid and the economy drop over the summer, in especially among the self-employed, as cases and deaths increased and inflation increased. . So I think if you look at how Biden went from a 53% approval rating to a 47% approval rating, half of that move is Afghanistan, but the other half, and the longer term trend, only deteriorate. perceptions of his handling of Covid and the economy.

Aaron Rupar

I think there is a perception among Biden supporters on the Afghanistan issue that he didn’t have good options. He could have stayed in Afghanistan and risked an escalation if the Taliban started attacking US troops, or with the withdrawal we just experienced, with all the chaos and attack that killed 13 soldiers outside Kabul airport. . So I wonder if the polls indicated that either option would have limited the political damage to Biden.

Cameron Easley

What the polls show is that more than half of voters backed the schedule and think we should have stepped down, but the big problem is how it was handled. Poll after poll has shown that a strong majority of voters disapprove of the way this has been handled.

When you look at the media and media environment of the year, the story of Afghanistan is sort of the biggest story since January 6 in terms of real world events that are being filmed that people can see. . You see these dire consequences for people, and I think it sticks with people, at least for a little while.

Do I think this suggests that over time the situation in Afghanistan is becoming less of a political responsibility for Biden? I do, I think it follows. If you asked me if I think the situation with Covid or the economy or Afghanistan would be a bigger issue in next year’s midterm elections, I would definitely say Covid and the economy. But nonetheless, I think the administration’s handling of the pullout has had a clear effect on Biden’s popularity to this day.

A high-profile mistake can end up having an impact on how voters generally perceive a president’s administration. Obviously, it is too early for us to say whether this is the case here or not.