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The White House’s goal of zero-emission models reaching 50% of car and light truck sales in the United States by 2030 is hardly impossible, but a lot will have to work out.
Catch up quickly: President Biden’s executive order on Thursday set the non-binding target of 50 percent of sales of battery-electric, plug-in hybrids or fuel cell electric models.
- The ambitious 2030 target is one of several new initiatives. Others include a new draft regulation on light vehicle mileage and CO2 through the mid-2020s, and the initiation of the longer-term rule process targeting light, medium and heavy vehicles.
- The New York Times has more.
The big picture: Electricity sales are growing, but reaching 50% in nine years would require a completely reshaped market.
- In the first half of 2021, fully electric and plug-in hybrids together accounted for 3.3% of car sales in the United States, according to Wards Intelligence. Analysts like BloombergNEF and Edmunds show similar levels.
- However, traditional automakers and startups are bringing a suite of new models to market, and large companies have made sales commitments consistent with Biden’s goal.
- The industry’s combined investment plans to date total more than $ 330 billion, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, an industry trade group.
What we are looking at: Congress. The bipartite infrastructure plan has several billion dollars to develop electric vehicle charging.
- Democrats want major new consumer buying incentives in the separate “reconciliation” package they hope to pass in a party line vote.
- Automakers say meeting their 2030 commitments will require these kinds of policies and other federal support.
What they say : “[T]These sales targets are certainly not unreasonable and most likely achievable by 2030 given that automakers have already incorporated a large number of electric vehicles into their future product cycles, ”said Jessica Caldwell, analyst at Edmunds.
- But Caldwell added that “what is perhaps the biggest hurdle ahead is consumer acceptance: what will it take for Americans to be ready to change their car ownership habits to electric? “
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