- BTC could reach a key resistance at $ 12,061 in the next few hours, as the hourly chart indicates symmetrical triangle break.
- A high-volume breakout above $ 12,061 would invalidate the lower bearish model and open the door to the recent high of $ 13,880.
- However, a break with low volumes could prove to be a bull trap, especially as the weekly chart indicators continue to report overbought conditions.
- On the other hand, a move below the $ 10,769 (the lowest on July 5) would show the minimum of $ 9,615 last week.
Bitcoin has jumped into the green of European trading hours and is now seeking to pass the key resistance above $ 12,000.
According to Bitstamp data, cryptocurrency per market value increased from $ 11,400 to $ 11,916 in 15 minutes at 09:10 UTC.
With the $ 500 peak, BTC ended the unmarked transactions this weekend, in which cryptocurrency was limited to a narrow price range above $ 11,000.
It is interesting to note that the breakout of the range took place three days after the bitcoin hash rate – a measure of the total performance of the miners – reached 74.5 million tera per second, which represents an increase of over 100% year-over-year, according to bitinfocharts.com.
Some observers including the former Wall Street trader and journalist Max Keizer consider an increase in the hash rate as a leading indicator of impending price increases. If this is true, BTC could escalate the resistance of the lower bearish to $ 12,061 and quickly revisit the recent highs.
Conversely, however, many others, including renowned analysts Alex Kruger, are of the opinion that the hash rate follows the price and that the first outperforms the second is a sign of minors "too exuberant". Therefore, expecting a bullish move from the recent highs on the basis of hashing rate alone could be costly.
That said, the short technical tables indicate a margin of maneuver for a break above $ 12,061.
At the time of writing these lines, BTC is changing hands at $ 11,830, representing a 2% gain over the day.
BTC's last time candle closed at $ 11,790, confirming a break in the symmetrical triangle created over the past four days.
The break-up of the triangle, a bullish continuation model, is supported by a rise in purchase volumes (green bar) and indicates a recovery in the recovery after the July 2 trough of $ 9,614.
Prices could therefore invalidate the down-and-down model with a move of more than $ 12,061 (July 4th summit).
Daily and weekly charts
On July 4, bitcoin dropped by 6.86%, easing the hammer-reversing candlestick pattern created in the previous two days.
A potential breakout above $ 12,061, as the hourly chart suggests, would validate the reversal of the bullish hammer and pave the way for a new test of the recent high of $ 13,880.
Any movement above $ 12,061 will likely be short-lived if trading volume remains low.
It should be noted that the Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to report overbought conditions. Thus, the probability of a low-volume escape trapping bulls on the wrong side of the market is high.
Disclosure: The author does not hold any cryptocurrency at the time of writing
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; TradingView charts