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Disney’s “Black Widow” and Universal’s “F9” are set to kick off the summer movie season. Still, it’s unlikely that either blockbuster will actually arrive on schedule.
While neither of the films has been postponed, industry experts and insiders have speculated that the next round of Hollywood release date delays will start to have an impact in mid-2021.
At this point, it’s almost expected that the films coming out in the first half of the year will be out of place again. With endemic coronavirus cases and the vaccine rollout proceeding more slowly than many had hoped, studios and, by extension, movie operators, are in essentially the same situation as 10 months ago: Audiences aren’t don’t go to the movies.
Even with President Joe Biden’s recent announcement that the United States will be able to immunize 300 million people by July, it is still too early to say how quickly Americans will be able to resume their daily activities.
In the meantime, however, ticket sales don’t do much to encourage studios. With 60% of U.S. theaters closed, the Top 10 Movies combined grossed between $ 7 million and $ 12 million every weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. To make matters worse, conversations around reopening theaters in major markets like New York and Los Angeles have apparently stopped, and Hollywood players have made it clear they have no plans to open a pole. of lively tent without theaters on the coasts welcoming customers.
After MGM announced in January that ‘No Time to Die,’ Daniel Craig’s latest release as James Bond, will no longer hit theaters in April (it’s now slated for October 8), it sparked a small ripple. Universal pushed Bob Odenkirk’s thriller “Nobody” through April, Paramount returned “A Quiet Place Part II” in September, and Sony postponed “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” and “Cinderella” in November and July, respectively. (Meanwhile, Warner Bros., apparently operating in an alternate universe due to its HBO Max hybrid deal, has moved “Godzilla vs. Kong” two months from May to March).
Still, the two biggest films positioned to open in the next few months, the Marvel Adventure led by Scarlett Johansson “Black Widow” (slated for May 7) and the “Fast and Furious” sequel “F9” (slated for release on May 7). May 28), did not waver. And just because their respective studios are optimistic doesn’t mean they’ll be able to open them in theaters as planned. The decision is not if these titles need to move, it is more likely a question of where to move them.
However, this is a particularly important decision as the postponement of “Black Widow” and “F9” signals to the rest of the film industry that the cinema could be out for another summer season.
There have been frequent rumors that “Black Widow” could keep its May release date and take a similar route to “Raya and the Last Dragon,” meaning it would premiere in theaters and on Disney simultaneously. More for a high price. During Disney’s quarterly earnings call on Thursday, Disney CEO Bob Chapek debunked this theory and pointed out that the studio “still intended [‘Black Widow’] be a theatrical release. “
Part of this, according to insiders, is because Marvel Studios chief Kevin Feige, the lead architect behind the meticulously constructed Marvel Cinematic Universe, was against a hybrid deployment. Having produced several of the studio’s highest-grossing films, including “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Avengers: Endgame,” Feige’s opinion certainly carries considerable weight at Disney. But that doesn’t mean the powers that be ultimately can’t convince Feige to change his mind – or topple him altogether.
Sources suggest that Disney has three to four weeks before it has to make a decision on “Black Widow” and Universal has a bit more time for “F9” as it is not expected to debut until three weeks after the Marvel movie. ‘Black Widow,’ in particular, represents its own set of complications due to the interconnected nature of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which now encompasses both feature films for theatrical distribution and limited and ongoing TV series. created for Disney Plus. Bumping “Black Widow” means that “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (July 9) and “Eternals” (November 5) would almost certainly be mixed up too. It could also disrupt Marvel’s carefully planned rollout of its Disney Plus shows – following “The Falcon and the Winter Solider” in March, at least four more titles are expected to premiere on the streamer this year.
Meanwhile, Universal plans to keep a traditional theatrical release for “F9” as “Fast & Furious” is among the studio’s most lucrative properties. Before the pandemic, the coming entry would easily have generated over $ 1 billion worldwide. Under the current circumstances, getting ticket sales near that number would be as unrealistic a feat as any of the gravity-defying stunts performed in a “Fast” movie. Although Universal struck a deal last year with major movie chains, including AMC and Cinemark, to make its movies on demand earlier than usual, even the most optimistic outcome would translate into a losing proposition. given the weakened cinema market. Too few countries have reopened cinemas and too few people are going to regions where cinema is making a comeback.
For now, Universal is waiting to see how the box office recovers in China, where “Fast” movies are extremely popular. Relying on Asian countries, “F9” might end up opening later in the summer, maybe July or August, or 2021. There’s even a world it’s being delayed for another year. .
“Black Widow” and “F9” are not small propositions; they each run nine-figure marketing campaigns in addition to production budgets of over $ 200 million. Christopher Nolan’s ‘Tenet’, which attempted to reboot cinema last September and grossed $ 363 million worldwide, had the strongest result yet for a coronavirus-era release. Months later, “Wonder Woman 1984” resulted in a meager $ 154 million worldwide. If “Black Widow” and “F9” reproduced these results, they would risk losing millions and millions.
One positive point: “Black Widow” and “F9” both enjoy brand awareness, which means the general public is already familiar with these franchises. Their respective studios don’t need to reintroduce characters to audiences the same way they would with an original property. And, unlike James Bond, who has lucrative partnerships with Heineken and Audi, among others, neither “Fast” nor “Black Widow” have any meaningful ties to consumer products, making them easier and less expensive. to retrieve and move to a new date.
The eventual withdrawal of “Black Widow” and “F9” may have serious implications for cinema. Several titles including Ryan Reynolds’ sci-fi adventure “Free Guy” (May 21), Paramount’s “Infinite” with Mark Wahlberg (May 28), Sony’s “Venom” sequel (June 25) and ” Top Gun: Maverick ”(July 2), stay on schedule. But plans could change if “Black Widow” and “F9” wave the white flag this summer.
What’s tricky is that the last half of the year has become so stacked up that there is hardly any room to insert new titles without pushing out the others. Starting in the fall, hit hopes are scheduled almost every week: “A Quiet Place” (September 17), “Many Saints of Newark” (September 24), “Dune” (October 1), “Halloween Kills” (October 15), “Eternals” (November 5), “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (November 11), “Mission: Impossible” (November 19), “West Side Story” (December 10) and “The Matrix 4” (22 December).
On closer inspection, it seems no one said around the holiday season that there was still a pandemic raging.
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