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"Game of Thrones" and Netflix. If you are in the Emmy prediction business, it is obvious that Tuesday will be a good morning for both of these entities.
If Emmy voters had to prove that the status quo was wrong, it may be the year. The members of the TV Academy are renowned for sticking to what is known and proven in terms of nominees and winners, as broadcasts continue to stay in contention long after. This is why Emmy forecasters generally have an interest in not letting go of the previous candidates, but predicting any kind of reshuffle in the big categories.
But the times – and the composition of the Academy – are changing, and perhaps we will see the arrival of composure on Tuesday when the nominations for this year's Emmy Awards will be announced. Programs like "Fleabag", "Schitt's Creek", "Russian Doll", "Pose", "Estate", "Homecoming", "The Good Fight", "Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj" and "Desus" Mero "are currently on the bill. the Zeitgeist and deserve to be in conversation alongside some pretended and pretenders.
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The peak television era, combined with limited space for nominees, means that there will be many snubs the day of the announcement, however. And when it comes time to predict this year's list of nominations, we are mostly going with the predictable ones. Prove us wrong, Academy TV. Prove us that we are wrong.
Exceptional drama series
Game of Thrones (HBO)
"Killing Eve" (AMC / BBC America)
"Ozark" (Netflix)
"It's us" (NBC)
"Better Call Saul" (AMC)
"Pose" (FX)
"Succession" (HBO)
Could also be named: "Reunion" (Amazon Prime); "Bodyguard" (Netflix)
Good surprise: "The good fight" (CBS All Access)
With "The Americans", "The Crown", "The Handmaid's Tale", "Stranger Things" and "Westworld" all contested this year, the category will switch almost completely, leaving room for the return of old favorites like "Better Call Saul" and shows that you think were nominated last year but were not on the list, such as "Killing Eve" and "Ozark", are now part of the list. But "Game of Thrones", even with the indignation of the fans about the final, remains the one to beat.
Outstanding comedy series
"Veep" (HBO)
"The wonderful Mrs. Maisel" (Amazon Prime)
Barry (HBO)
"GLOW" (Netflix)
"Black-ish" (ABC)
"The Kominsky Method" (Netflix)
"The right place" (NBC)
Could also be named: "Fleabag" (Amazon Prime); "Russian doll" (Netflix)
Good surprise: "Schitt's Creek" (Pop); "Better Things" (FX)
As we say from the beginning, this category is in fact the previous winner "Veep" and last year's winner, "The wonderful Mrs. Maisel". I'm a little crazy to put "The Good Place" on the list, but this show continues to gain ground thanks to streaming viewers. "Black-ish" remains a show that voters continue to name. With only seven slots, this leaves the potential nominees "Fleabag" and "Russian Doll" also promising, possibly leading to the start of both programs.
Exceptional limited edition
"Escape at Dannemora" (Showtime)
"Chernobyl" (HBO)
"When they see us" (Netflix)
"A very English scandal" (Amazon Prime)
"Pit / Verdon" (FX)
Could also be named: "Sharp Objects" (HBO); "True Detective" (HBO)
Good surprise: "The law" (Hulu); "Sale john" (Bravo); "I'm at night" (TNT)
In the absence of an "American Crime Story" or "Genius" franchise this year, there is still room for more originals, all based on real events. "When they see us" and "Chernobyl" arrived late in the FYC season, but they were hotly debated in Hollywood as the vote began. "Fosse / Verdon" deals with a subject that interests Hollywood: Hollywood. And "A Very English Scandal" was a tour de force for Hugh Grant and Ben Whishaw.
Outstanding dramatic actress
Sandra Oh, "Kill Eve"
Laura Linney, "Ozark"
Julia Roberts, "Homecoming"
Emilia Clarke, "Game of Thrones"
Jodie Comer, "Kill Eve"
Christine Baranski, "The good fight"
Could also be named: Robin Wright, "House of Cards"; Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Apocalypse"
Good surprise: Mj Rodriguez, "Pose"
Last year's winner, Claire Foy, is not eligible. In fact, all those named in the category in 2018, with the exception of Oh can not return, give the star "Killing Eve" the status of instant favorite. It also gives way to superstars like Laura Linney and Julia Roberts, as well as Emilia Clarke ("Game of Thrones" favorite) (previously named actress in a supporting role), co-starring Oh's. Eve ", Jodie Comer, and another industry favorite, Christine Baranski.
Dramatic actor
Jason Bateman, "Ozark"
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul"
Sterling K. Brown, "It's us"
Harrington Kit, "The Iron Throne"
Billy Porter, "Pose"
Richard Madden, "bodyguard"
Could also be named: Milo Ventimiglia, "It's us"; J.K. Simmons, "counterpart"
Good surprise: Stephan James, "Homecoming"
Odenkirk has been nominated each year for "Better Call Saul", while Sterling K. Brown has also been nominated each year for "This Is Us" (including a win in 2017). Bateman, nominated last year for "Ozark", should also be back. The rest of the list is speculation, but Billy Porter is currently on a career high, while Kit Harrington has just finished his career under the title Jon Snow in "Game of Thrones" and Richard Madden has had a great year both with "Bodyguard" and "The Theatrical". Rocketman. "
Outstanding comedy actress
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Rachel Brosnahan, "The wonderful Mrs. Maisel"
Allison Janney, "mom"
Pamela Adlon, "Better Things"
Tracee Ellis Ross, "Black-ish"
Natasha Lyonne, "Russian doll"
Could also be named: Phoebe Waller-Bridge, "Fleabag"; Lily Tomlin, "Grace and Frankie"
Good surprise: Christina Applegate, "Dead to Me"; Catherine O'Hara, "Schitt's Creek"; Regina Hall, the "black Monday"
Another highly competitive category, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, star of "Veep", returns in its last season, is the big favorite of the victory. But voters still like last year's winner, Rachel Brosnahan, as well as frequent nominees Allison Janney and Tracee Ellis Ross. They also like Pamela Adlon, who has several traits of union, which is why we are making room for another similar visionary star: Natasha Lyonne, who should be recognized in some way for " Russian Doll ". Ditto Phoebe Waller-Bridge, but since This premiere took place in mid-May, so late in the process of FYC, that we hold it for the moment at "just boiling under".
Exceptional Actor Comedy
Bill Hader, "Barry"
Michael Douglas, "The Kominsky Method"
Ted Danson, "The Good Place"
Anthony Anderson, "Black-ish"
Jim Carrey, "I'm laughing"
Don Cheadle, "Black Monday"
Could also be named: William H. Macy, "Shameless"; Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
Good surprise: Ramy Youssef, "Ramy"; Eugene Levy, "Schitt's Creek"
Last year's winner, Bill Hader, remains the favorite, but do not count his love for icon Michael Douglas, who won the Golden Globe earlier this year. We will also bring back Ted Danson and Anthony Anderson in the mix, adding another big star in Jim Carrey and taking a risk in eliminating perpetual candidate William H. Macy for the benefit of another Showtime star, Don Cheadle.
Outstanding lead actress in a limited series or movie
Patricia Arquette, "Escape at Dannemora"
Michelle Williams, "Pit / Verdon"
Connie Britton, "Dirty John"
Amy Adams, "sharp objects"
Emma Stone, "Maniac"
Julianna Margulies, "The hot zone"
Could also be named: Joey King, "The Act"; Ruth Wilson, "Mrs. Wilson"
Good surprise: Marisa Tomei, "Live in front of a studio audience"
What a year for Patricia Arquette, whose role as star of "Escape at Dannemora" was undeniable. Connie Britton and Julianna Margulies, TV stars, also invite two names. Then add three other names to the list: Michelle Williams, Amy Adams and Emma Stone.
Outstanding lead actor in a limited series or film
Mahershala Ali, "real detective"
Hugh Grant, "A very English scandal"
Benicio Del Toro, "Escape at Dannemora"
Ian McShane, "Deadwood: the movie"
Jared Harris, "Chernobyl"
Sam Rockwell, "Pit / Verdon"
Could also be named: Anthony Hopkins, "King Lear"; Benedict Cumberbatch, "Brexit"
Good surprise: Jharrel Jerome, "When they see us"
The limited series or categories of movie actors usually boast of a healthy mix of TV veterans and movie superstars plunging their feet into the small screen. This is the essence of this mix, starting with Mahershala Ali, who apparently can not do anything except win at the shows. Add Hugh Grant to his first television for years, then Benicio Del Toro, Jared Harris and Sam Rockwell to do what they do best. And finally, bring back an old favorite: Ian McShane, who takes again his emblematic role of "Deadwood" in the role of Al Swearingen.
Outstanding support actress in a drama
Lena Headey, "Game of Thrones"
Maisie Williams, "Game of Thrones"
Sophie Turner, "Game of Thrones"
Rhea Seehorn, "Better to call Saul"
Julia Garner, "Ozark"
Susan Kelechi Watson, "It's us"
Could also be named: Gwendoline Christie, "Game of Thrones"; Chrissy Metz, "It's us"
Good surprise: Fiona Shaw, "Killing Eve"; Indya Moore, "Pose"
Lena Headey would be the only candidate in the running last year; but without "The Handmaid's Tale", which won three nominations as a stage actress last year, opens the door for more "Game of Thrones" artists. It may be the moment when the Academy recognizes Rhea Seehorn, while Julia Garner is also on fire between "Ozark" and "Dirty John". And Susan Kelechi Watson is one of the secret weapons of "This Is Us", which helps raise Sterling K. Brown stars too.
Actor of exceptional support in a drama
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, "Game of Thrones"
Jonathan Banks, "Better Call Saul"
Bobby Cannavale, "Homecoming"
Kieran Culkin, "Succession"
Giancarlo Esposito, "Calling Saul better"
Could also be named: Justin Harley, "It's us"; Michael Kelly, "House of Cards"
Good surprise: Asia Kate Dillon, "Billions"; Michael Sheen, "The good fight"
Last year's winner, Peter Dinklage, is an easy bet for the return, alongside co-star Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, also nominated last year. Jonathan Banks, who has always been nominated for "Better Call Saul" (and before that, "Breaking Bad") is also obvious. Giancarlo Esposito had already been nominated for the role of Gus Fring, back on "Breaking Bad", and could eventually come back.
Best actress in a comedy
Alex Borstein, "The wonderful Mrs. Maisel"
Kate McKinnon, "Saturday Night Live"
Betty Gilpin, "GLOW"
Laurie Metcalf, "The Conners"
Anna Chlumsky, "Veep"
Aidy Bryant, "Saturday Night Live"
Could also be named: Marin Hinkle, "The wonderful Mrs. Maisel"; Olivia Colman, "Fleabag"; Leslie Jones, "Saturday Night Live"
Good surprise: D'Arcy Carden, "The Good Place"; Rita Moreno, "One day at a time"
Most of these predictions only repeat last year, with the exception of Anna Chlumsky, a former perennial candidate who was not eligible in 2018. Alex Borstein won last year – which gives him again first place this year – although Kate McKinnon, who won the previous two years, is also on the hunt.
Actor of exceptional support in a comedy
Henry Winkler, "Barry"
Alan Arkin, "The Kominsky Method"
Tony Shalhoub, "The wonderful Mrs. Maisel"
Tony Hale, "Veep"
Kenan Thompson, "Saturday Night Live"
Titus Burgess, "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Could also be named: Matt Walsh, "Veep"; Timothy Simons, "Veep"
Good surprise: Anthony Carrigan, "Barry"; William Jackson Harper, "The Right Place"
Henry Winkler has the time of his life, and who wants to refuse him? The star of "Barry" won last year, and has another chance at the Emmy this year. Add Alan Arkin and the return of Tony Hale, then favorites Emmy, Tony Shalhoub, Titus Burgess and Kenan Thompson.
Best actress in a limited series or movie
Patricia Arquette, "The Act"
Emily Watson, "Chernobyl"
Patricia Clarkson, "sharp objects"
Sally Field, "Maniac"
Emma Thompson, "King Lear"
Carmen Ejogo, "True Detective"
Could also be named: Robin Weigert, "Deadwood: the film"; Vera Farmiga, "When they see us"
Good surprise: Marla Gibbs, "Live in front of a studio audience"
Patricia Arquette can not seem to be wrong. It's a leader in a strong group that includes another Patricia (Clarkson) who also does amazing work and legends like Sally Field and Emma Thompson.
Outstanding support actor in a limited series or movie
George Clooney, "Catch-22"
Ben Whishaw, "A very English scandal"
Paul Dano, "Escape at Dannemora"
Kyle Chandler, "Catch-22"
Michael Kenneth Williams, "When they see us"
Gerald McRaney, "Deadwood: the movie"
Could also be named: Norbert Leo Butz, "Fosse / Verdon"; Stellan Skarsgard ("Chernobyl"); Stephen Dorff ("True Detective")
Good surprise: John Leguizamo, "When they see us"
Do not bet against the Cloon dog. "Catch-22" was a work of love for him, and even though he was not the star, he is still loved enough – and is seen enough – to generate this nomination. Of the other choices, Kyle Chandler and Gerald McRaney are the favorites of the industry. And the role of Michael Kenneth Williams in "When They See Us" is absolutely heartbreaking.
Exceptional television movie
"Black Mirror: Bandersnatch" (Netflix)
"Deadwood: the movie" (HBO)
"King Lear" (Amazon Prime)
"Brexit" (HBO)
"My dinner with Hervé" (HBO)
Could also be named: "Aboriginal Son" (HBO)
Good surprise: "O.G." (HBO)
In a category still dominated by HBO in terms of appointments, "Black Mirror" installments have been earned in the last two years – so the franchise still has the advantage. But this category is perhaps the most affected by rule changes this year, as the decision to institute the "Black Mirror Rule", limiting eligible films to more than 75 minutes, has highlighted the strategy. consisting of submitting episodes of anthologies "Television Movies". This will probably hurt others trying to do the same thing, including "The Romanoffs".
Exceptional series of varieties and discussions
Last week tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
End show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Full frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)
Could also be named: "Late Night with Seth Meyers" (NBC); "Real Time with Bill Maher" (HBO)
Good surprise: "Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj" (Netflix); "Desus and Mero" (Showtime)
Until the Academy finally separates talker broadcasts from variety shows, this category will be a bit unbalanced. But one thing is certain: "Last week, tonight" is not going anywhere. They are exactly the same nominees as last year and I do not think that will change.
Variety series / exceptional sketch
"Saturday Night Live" (NBC)
"At Home With Amy Sedaris" (Tru TV)
Documentary Now (IFC)
"Who is America" (Showtime)
"Drunk History" (Central Comedy)
Tracey Ullman's Show (HBO)
Could also be named: "I think you should leave" (Netflix)
Good surprise: "I love you, America" (Hulu)
"Saturday Night Live" is an 800-pound Emmy gorilla, but it's not a guaranteed winner: "Inside Amy Schumer" and "Key & Peele" have won this category in their first two years of existence. "I Love You, America" was nominated last year, and it would be amazing to see him following in the footsteps of another series of canceled skits, "The Ben Stiller Show," which won an Emmy in 1993 despite his loss.
Outstanding competition program
"RuPaul drag racing" (VH1)
"The voice" (NBC)
"The Amazing Race" (CBS)
"Top Chef" (Bravo)
"American Ninja Warrior" (NBC)
"The masked singer" (Fox)
Could also be named: "Project Track" (Bravo); "Ellen's Game of Games" (NBC)
Good surprise: "The nail" (Netflix)
Another category that changes so rarely, I would have kept the same thing as last year – if it is that "The Masked Singer" was such a phenomenon that it could get enough voice to dismiss one of the series of veterans dominating the category. "RuPaul's Drag Race" is currently on a roll, just like "Top Chef" and "The Amazing Race" before him, so expect it to continue for now.
Exceptional host for a reality or competition program
RuPaul Charles, "RuPaul Dragsters Race"
Ellen DeGeneres, "Ellen's Game of Games"
Queer Eye Team, "Queer Eye"
Jane Lynch, "Hollywood Game Night"
W. Kamau Bell, United Shades of America
Could also be named: Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman, "Making It"; Phil Keoghan, "The Amazing Race"
Good surprise: Marie Kondo, "Storage"
RuPaul Charles has won this category in the last three years and remains the favorite. Ellen DeGeneres and Jane Lynch will probably be back, while I think the guys from Queer Eye have left an impression of pop culture enough to be admitted. Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn are no longer guests of "Project Runway" and have come out, but I think that Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman could slip in thanks to their star power.
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