Bond King, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bets on Gold and Sounds the Alarm in Potential Recession in the United States



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Havens in, tech stocks out could be the theme of Friday.

Investors seem eager to insure against the geopolitical tensions that erupted in the Middle East and Hong Kong this week, with a gold medal in Friday. Meanwhile, the US tech stocks could not win any popularity competition, as a red flag has risen over how the trade war is biting this industry.

Broadcom technology conglomerate slips into pre-commercialization business after slashing its revenue forecast, citing the success of an export ban imposed on the big Chinese customer Huawei: it could be Nasdaq's action

COMP -0.63%

who leads the southern market as traders head towards the weekend.

Trade tensions are also one of the reasons why DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach now sees a greater chance that a recession will hit US shores in the not-too-distant future.

Provide our call of the dayGundlach has predicted a US recession of 40% to 50% over the next six months and 65% over the next 12 months, during a webcast Thursday for the benefit of its customers, according to a summary of his comments from Reuters. and other media. He said the signs of a slowdown in the global economy were also worrying.

Lily: China's economy is cooling again in May

The so-called king of bonds and forecourt forecaster is not the only one to worry. JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note this week that President Donald Trump's trade fights have cost American businesses billions of dollars and could trigger a slowdown called "the Trump recession."

At the same time, Morgan Stanley announced on Thursday that its closely watched business conditions index had fallen in June to a level of 13, levels close to those seen since the 2008 downturn, although the pace of growth in the economy has been slow. economist Ellen Zentner has stated that their analysts on the trade.




There is no doubt that calls to the Federal Reserve to face a recession are getting stronger and stronger. Gundlach does not expect a reduction in interest rates at the Fed meeting next week. Instead, he notes that the bond market is in the process of switching two or three cuts by the end of the year.

As for where Gundlach puts his money, he said that he was "definitely a long gold", given expectations, the dollar, which is likely to suffer if the Fed cuts its rates. interest, will close the year more weakly.

The market

Nasdaq

COMP -0.63%

is leading stocks down, with the Dow

DJIA, -0.37%

, S & P

SPX, -0.34%

also in the redafter a lot of optimistic data may have begun some hopes of rate reduction.

Geopolitical nervousness has led the gold

GCQ19, + 0.77%

above a great technical level, and the dollar

DXY, + 0.29%

is firmer. Oil

CLN19, + 0.27%

withdraws after Thursday's big gains from tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Lily: The escalation of oil attacks in the Middle East could add $ 7 a barrel to prices

Inventories are lower in Europe

SXXP, -0.50%

weighed by weak production data in China. Asia had a difficult day, led by Hong Kong Hang Seng

HSI, -0.65%

ahead of the potential for other troubles this weekend.

L & # 39; s economy

Concerns about the weakening of the economy eased after a solid retail sales report, while industrial production also outpaced expectations. The Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Business Inventory remain to come.

Table

Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Bull & Bear indicator leaves us in suspense. Last week, their key contrarian indicator has taken an exciting step in which investors are so bearish that it's time to buy stock.

Alas, in the last week, as our table of the day shows, the indicator has not moved, blocked at 2.5. The main objective of the indicator is to determine whether the purchase or sale of shares by an investor went too far on a scale from zero to ten. The indicator fell last week to this level of 2.5, while it was previously 3.6.




The buzz

The US military on Friday released a video showing an Iranian patrol boat removing an unexploded mine from one of the tankers that was attacked Thursday near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has denied any involvement.

Broadcom

AVGO, -7.00%

slips on a reduction in sales forecasts, as hopes for a rebound in the semiconductor industry could well materialize.

Seller of articles for animals

CHWY, + 0.00%

will debut on Wall Street on Friday, while stocks should start trading at $ 22 each, valuing the company at $ 9 billion.

Lily: How could the Chinese tariff fight stifle a key American summer tradition

A group of American companies including Walmart Inc.

WMT, + 0.19%

and target Corp.

TGT -0.18%

sent a letter to Trump asking him to conclude a trade agreement and end the tariff war.

Lily: Volkswagen sets Traton IPO price range at $ 1.9 billion

The tweet

Here is Amazon

AMZN, -0.20%

Joe Biden, former vice president and Democratic presidential candidate of 2020, blames the e-commerce giant for not having paid enough taxes:

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