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Matt Metcalf, as director of sports betting for Circa Sports, is the punter responsible for the first lines of college football to hit the betting market each week. Metcalf publishes its first lines at 11 a.m. on Sunday and offers betting limits of $ 3,000 to all comers, including some professional bettors who have been shunned by other traders. The limits increase rapidly over the course of the week, and as the kick-off approaches they will be among the highest in the betting market.
Metcalf shares their bookmaking process with ESPN this football season. This week, he explains how he established the frontline for Ole Miss-Alabama, what happened next and what he learned from it.
Alabama opened as a 20-point favorite against Ole Miss on Sunday afternoon at Circa Sports. Bettors thought it was too high.
In the first three hours the game was on the board, Metcalf said he booked more than 10 limited bets on the Rebels, and none on the Crimson Tide. Metcalf responded to the action by moving the line up to Alabama -14.5. It has since fallen back to -15 at Circa, while most sports bets are at -14.5.
Coming in this week, Metcalf had the Crimson Tide ranked three to four points ahead of No.2 Georgia and 18 points above Ole Miss. After Alabama beat Florida two weeks ago in a tighter-than-expected game, Metcalf lowered his power rating on the Crimson Tide by three points. Alabama were consistently the top team in their standings, around 3-4 points more than No.2 Georgia and 18 points more than Ole Miss.
“I thought we were ahead of the market on Ole Miss for most of the season in our numbers,” Metcalf said on Sunday afternoon, hours after posting this week’s college football opening lines. “I was pretty confident, because I was ahead of Ole Miss and was evaluating them correctly, that we were right to open that line to [Alabama] 18, 19, 20, within this range. But the market disagreed with me.
“Because I don’t think I’m low on Ole Miss,” Metcalf added, “it tells me I’m probably too high on Alabama. Obviously I still have them three or four points higher which tells me the market probably thinks Alabama and Georgia are much closer than I. I have a four point spread between these two teams, but, based on betting, [the market] think they’re pretty much the same team, Alabama and Georgia.
“Two hours ago I would have made it clear to you that Alabama were a three to four point favorite against Georgia. But now, from the way they’re betting, that line seems closer to picking. Interesting. “
When the Crimson Tide take the field on Saturday against Ole Miss, they will have been favored 85 straight games and 156 of their last 157. The streak dates back to the 2009 SEC Championship game, when Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators were around 5 points. favorites on the tide. Alabama won this game 32-13.
The Crimson Tides have only been underdogs in one other game since: at Georgia in 2015. Alabama finished as the consensus underdog by one point, but then beat the Bulldogs 38-10.
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