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President Trump, after successfully squeezing several newspapers from the act of a reality drama about his threats to "close the border" between the United States and Mexico, has apparently decided that & # 039; He preferred to threaten to close the real-moving frontier to do so.
On Thursday, Trump announced that he would not close the border imminently, but added that he was on the table if Mexico did not "stop or largely" drugs and drugs. unauthorized immigrants to enter the United States.
The announcement is important for American businesses (and citizens) who feared an imminent shutdown. But that does not really change the fact that on the ground, there is already a slowdown at the ports of entry – for the same reason that officials who did not call Trump were saying at the beginning that port closures might be possible. to be necessary.
And last week showed that closing borders at the border as a threat to get others to do what Trump wants – especially when Trump does not set his goals realistically – is affecting Americans, which is the only way to do it. whether or not there is an actual announcement that "the border" is closed.
There is already a slowdown in the border and Trump's statement does not change that situation.
Closing threats to Trump's "border" have always been a threat to closing American entry points: official border crossing points where people, cars and trucks can legally enter the United States . It can not prevent people from entering the United States illegally between points of entry and can not prevent those people from seeking asylum in the United States once they have put them in the United States. feet on American soil. (The administration has already tried to ban people who enter the United States illegally from seeking asylum and has been arrested by a court.)
And even in ports, what Trump describes as an on / off switch – closing or not closing the border – is really more confusing: the possibility of reducing staff or closing lanes at different entry points.
This switch is already dimmed.
DHS is already reallocating some of the staff working in the ports to assist US Border Patrol officers in the treatment and treatment of apprehended migrants. On Monday, the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen, ordered the re-assignment of 750 port employees and asked the Customs and Border Protection Directorate (which oversees the ports and border patrol) explore the possibility of transferring up to 2,000 port agents.
For all members of Trump's administration other than Trump, it was the basis for talking about the complete closure of entry points. While Trump spoke of it as a currency of exchange, the administration officials spoke of it as an indispensable logistical act.
"Why are we talking about closing the border?", Asked Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney (ABC) rhetorically. "It's not out of spite or not – trying to try – and undoing what's going on, but just saying, look, we need people from the ports of entry to go out and patrol the desert."
The reassignment of hundreds of officers has caused unusual slowdowns in various ports in recent days. On Monday, Otay Mesa's port terminal in California closed for the night while 150 trucks were waiting to cross; On Wednesday, the queues from Ciudad Juarez to El Paso were so long that the local Juarez government brought a port-a-pot to relieve the people waiting.
The ports along the border that are affected and whose functions are requested vary from one day to the next. This makes sense as the reason for the stoppage is the reallocation of staff hours. More importantly, it makes sense if the administration tries to minimize disruption in trade and legal border crossings.
Declaring categorically that the border is "closed" would do exactly the opposite – it would have maximized the disruption.
That's the way Trump talks about closing the border: a threat to get everyone to comply with what he wants.
Trump uses the closing of the border as a currency of exchange
At first, Trump was trying to make the border closure a positive statement for the United States, saying it would benefit the US economy because of the trade deficit (which is economically illiterate).
He subsequently stopped doing so – recognizing what would have been repeated on several occasions by senior White House economic staff briefing him that it would be a very bad idea for American and Mexican companies.
Instead, he now explicitly calls it as a currency of exchange.
"If we do not reach agreement with Congress, or if Mexico – and you can probably say" and / or "" – if Mexico does not do what it should do "by preventing people come, "said Trump on Tuesday," Then we'll close the border, it's going to be that. "
In this regard, his announcement Thursday that he would not close the border was hardly a reprieve. Because what Trump asks in return – that Mexico stops or "largely stops" drugs and migrants from entering the United States – is at worst impossible, and at best impossible to define.
The Mexican government has generally cooperated with the Trump government on migration (and reinforced the ban on migrants over the past week, a few days before Trump acknowledged that Mexico was "stopping for the first time" migrants ), but it is impossible to stop everyone. to come to the United States. While the Mexican administration had initially granted a large number of temporary visas to Central American migrants so that they would travel legally through Mexico before taking office, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took his duties in December, but they ended this policy after a month – and the number of families in the United States have only increased since then.
Trump is essentially asking Mexico to do something in a year that he has tried and failed in the last 15 years: to eliminate human trafficking and drug trafficking in the country. And since he does not clarify what "largely stop" means, he raises the possibility that Mexico can do everything possible and not always please him.
It's hard to use threats successfully to get your way if you do not know exactly what you want.
Uncertainty also hurts people
Trump has done this before. His efforts to terminate the Deferred Action Plan for Child Arrivals (DACA) included a six-month period allowing Congress to legislate to help the 700,000 unauthorized, unauthorized, DACA-protected immigrant youths. expulsion, before these expirations begin to expire en masse. These negotiations were already collapsing before a federal judge intervened and prevented Trump from ending the DACA (a court battle before the Supreme Court is almost sure to begin).
Now, DACA is in a zombie state, in which unauthorized immigrants who were protected by DACA before Trump revoked them are allowed to continue to renew themselves, but are forced to continually seek to maximize the time they will receive. if the Supreme Court Trump.
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants enjoying temporary protection status are in an even more critical situation. They too are protected by a court order that prevented Trump from ending his legal status. But if a judicial decision opposes them, some may lose their protections immediately if this is the choice of the administration.
Last week again, Trump decided to extend a similar set of protections to hundreds of Somali immigrants just days before they lose their status. And now, it gives Mexico – and all those who live, work or trade along the US-Mexico border – a similar "reprieve".
The uncertainty itself counts. Mexican producers and US companies importing their products will be forced to question whether they should plan to close the border in the spring of 2020 or whether to continue as planned and risk losses. catastrophic if the border is closed. People living in Mexico but working in the United States will spend a year wondering if they will be able to get to work next April – just like the DACA and GST recipients who are wondering if they will be able to keep their jobs. or if they will have to be fired once they lose their authorization to work legally in the United States.
Trump sees threats as a lever. But they only benefit because they cause pain.
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