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A new type of flu could surprise governments and kill nearly a billion people, warn scientists.
A viral simulation of a new pathogen, which spreads by cough, has been shown to be out of control, ultimately killing up to 10% of the world's population.
The study, conducted at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, was from a currently fictitious disease dubbed Clade X.
In simulation, parainfluenza killed 150 million people at the time. during the first two years – almost three times the British population.
According to Dr. Eric Toner of the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health Security, the problem comes with the many shortcomings of the health care system world.
"We do not have the capacity to produce vaccines against a new pathogen in a few months rather than several tens of years and we do not have the global public health capabilities that would enable us to quickly identify and control an outbreak before it becomes a pandemic. "
in collaboration with true health professionals, including US politicians Tom Daschle and Susan Brooks, as well as former director of disease control and prevention centers, Julie Gerberding
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The simulation was created to be no more dangerous than a real disease like Sars.
Sars killed 10 percent of the 8,000 people infected in 2003, which, Dr. Toner said, was a lucky escape.
Speaking of this new viral potential, he said, "It will happen, but I do not know when."
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