The cash price of Vs The current value of Bitcoin

As you can see, it is still much higher than the calculated level.

Of course, this is only a theory and it has its own limitations (read about some of them at the bottom of the article) and my calculations are far and away to be precise, but they can show the scale of phenomena

Value as cost of mining

Despite the fact that I've used some badogues to the 39, technical badysis, it is still not clear that BTC is a currency, a title or a commodity. There are similarities between each of them but, on the other hand, there are also fundamental differences.

That is why Joost van der Burgt, political adviser at the National Bank of the Netherlands, central bank of the Netherlands, and adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in his report [19459049 attempted to examine the bitcoin value of these perspectives.

He argues that cryptocurrency is not subject to monetary policy or related to a central government. There is also no current local Bitcoin economy with native Bitcoin prices for goods and services. These determinants affect the exchange rate of currencies.

In some references, the SEC admitted that cryptocurrencies could be treated as collateral in certain circumstances. BTC does not generate interest payments, dividends, profits or capital gains. That's why van der Burgt has applied the VC (venture capital) methods used to estimate the value of startups. As a result, the valuation of Bitcoin is expected to be about 10 trillion US dollars by 2030. This equates to 150% of the world's supply of gold and M2 dollars. US.

If you treat bitcoin as a commodity, it has no value. The researcher says that the cost of creating a single Bitcoin is about $ 1,800 US, calculated by the cost of energy when it is operated by professional mining facilities and energy efficient in China. This figure is expected to be increased due to account overhead, machine costs and a 25% profit margin (similar to the margins of the most profitable gold mining companies). As a result, van der Burgt postulates that the value of a single BTC is about US $ 2,500

. However, the report of EliteFixtures calculates the energy cost per single BTC on a completely different scale. level. According to this report, the cost of mining in China, where the vast majority of BTC originated, is expected to be closer to US $ 3,200

Ancient Philosophers on Bitcoin

There is also another theory that can be used about the value of bitcoin. It follows from a maxim attributed to Publilius Syrus: "Everything is worth what his buyer will pay for him". In other words: the value is equal to what someone is willing to pay.

Apparently, he's gaining the most popularity right now.

ETH Zurich researchers denounce the limitation of their methods:

know the actual number of active users, especially because a single user may have multiple addresses which, at a stranger, can not be distinguished from addresses belonging to multiple users. In addition, the Bitcoin.org Developer's Guide discourages reuse of keys, stating that each key should only be used for two transactions (receive, then send) and that all changes must be sent to a new address generated at the time of the transaction. to the sender). Depending on the extent to which this notice is followed, this measure is therefore an unclear mix between the number of daily users and the number of daily transactions (their activity).

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The value of crypto-currency, according to current price models

By the end of 2017, the price of Bitcoin has exploded In June 2018, a single unit of cryptocurrency cost "only" US $ 5,818, the price of Bitcoin being very fragile , and the recent buzz, mainly negative, has not done much to prevent its fluctuation.

the current price of Bitcoin justified? This question has been continuously asked for a long time and with a high probability that it will be asked to repeatedly.The problem is that it is very di It is useful to define a reference point for v Bitcoin v alue.

The size of the network is the key

Let's review some recent studies and facts on the value of Bitcoin. Last year, one of the publications suggested that the "Metcalfe Law" could apply to Bitcoin. The law originally described the size of the network as being proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system ( n 2 ).

However, in their journal published in mid-March 2018, researchers at ETH Zurich and the Swiss Finance Institution have modified this model ("Generalized Metcalfe & # 39; s Law ") and suggested that the exponent, 1.69, be They argue that, based on historical data, it reflects how the value of BTC has increased compared to the number of users. They concluded that the market capitalization should be between 22 and 44 billion US dollars. Their results have quickly become news all over the world.

How it looks today

Inspired by Arthur Laffer's story and his sketch of a curve in the restaurant yesterday while visiting a cafe and thinking to ] my last text on Forbes.com about Bitcoin I've roughly followed the calculations of researchers at ETH Zurich.

The day their article was published (March 15, 2018), the statistics for Bitcoin were as follows:

Since then, the market capitalization has decreased but the number of extracted Bitcoins and the unique addresses used are even higher:

The Current Value of BTC According to Theory

Without overemphasizing financial mathematics, if we badume that the market value was about $ 44 billion in mid-March it should now be about 49 billion US dollars. If you divide it by the number of Bitcoins, we get the figure of $ 2,855 US.

Let's see again the chart of the average market price USD on the main Bitcoin exchanges to see the difference: