The Clade X simulation reveals that the United States is not ready for serious pandemics



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A simulation designed to identify the preparedness challenges and current policies that need to be addressed to prevent a serious pandemic indicates that the United States is far from ready for a generalized pandemic with a new agent pathogen

The simulation was conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in May 2018 as an exercise focused on the high-level strategies, decisions, and policies needed to prevent a pandemic from becoming uncontrollable. The center's previous simulation exercises include the "Dark Winter" simulation in 2001, which depicted a fictional scenario of a smallpox attack against US citizens, and the "Atlantic Storm" simulation in which smallpox was used as a weapon bioterrorist

. The 2018 fictional scenario is based on "Clade X", a new virus with genetic elements of the Nipah virus that has been genetically engineered as a weapon to diminish the world's population.

The simulation commissioned a group of individuals, the Executive Committee (EXCOMM), which represented members of the President's National Security Council as well as members with pandemic expertise – with decisions on how to manage the outbreak of Clade X, which affects 20% of infected people. As the virus traveled quickly from person to person first to Frankfurt in Germany and Caracas to Venezuela before traveling to the United States (see Clade X Timeline ), the leaders of the Council of had to make decisions about foreign diplomacy such as travel, surveillance and quarantine of exposed persons, national policies that attempt to determine how to contain the virus and how to navigate the complex relationship between government and hospitals private. [19659002] At the end of the scenario, which was set at 20 weeks since the beginning of the first outbreaks, there was no virus; however, 150 million people had died worldwide, including 15 million US citizens.

The result of the simulation produced a number of key policy recommendations according to investigators, including the ability to develop new vaccines and drugs for new pathogens in a shorter period of time, and the need for strong health systems, both global and national, capable of managing the challenges of the pandemic response.

use all health care badets in the event of a pandemic, implement an international strategy to address research on the prevention of future pandemics and ensure that senior leaders are trained and educated on how to respond to infectious disease emergencies.


Image Source: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-exercise-presentation-slides.pdf

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