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After focusing on the main bubble games in recent days, let's take a look back at the potential auction robbers still at this point in the week of the championship.
American – The team to watch here is Memphis, largely because the tournament is taking place at home. After defeating Tulane on Thursday, central Florida is the Tigers' next win.
Atlantic-10 – The Bubble teams will be there, but it is likely that Dayton or Davidson will play in the final on Sunday, which could cause trouble for the Rams.
Big 12 – West Virginia is Cinderella's story after finishing last in the league. The Mountaineers have already beaten Oklahoma and Texas Tech, preparing for Friday's game against Kansas.
Big East – The team to watch is Xavier, who will play an interesting role in the general case if she gets rid of Marquette Friday.
Big Ten – Nebraska is the only potential burglar still alive here, but the Huskers will have to win five victories in five days to go dancing. They will face Wisconsin on Friday.
Mid-American – Buffalo 's chances of winning the tournament improved when Toledo was eliminated on Thursday, but if anyone else wins the Bulls, there will be one less place for potential bubble teams. .
West Mountain – Bubble teams are in desperate need of Nevada or Utah State to win this tournament, and if both win their semifinal match on Friday, there will be a collective expiration.
Pac-12 – Although I suppose you can argue against the presence of Washington and Arizona State on the field, here we focus on Colorado and Oregon, both of which have played well lately.
Before looking at the unique seeds, I wanted to quickly recall how the NCAA Selection Committee ranks the winnings according to the new NET ranking.
A breakdown of the four levels:
· Level 1: Local teams vs 1-30 / neutral teams 1-50 / road / teams 1-75
· Level 2: Teams domiciled 31-75 / neutral teams 51-100 / road vs 76-135
· Level 3: Local Teams vs. 76-160 / Neutral Teams 101-200 / Road / Teams 136-240
· Level 4: At home against classified teams 161-351 / Neutral against ranked teams 201-351 / road against ranked teams 241-351
A seed
I said Tuesday morning that Virginia and Gonzaga were stuck on one line, and it is reasonable to question one of them after Tuesday night. Nevertheless, it is important to keep in mind that this is only one game out of 33 for Gonzaga, and that it is also their first defeat against a team outside the Top 10 of the NET. The Bulldogs' win against Duke in Maui will still have a lot of weight, and Gonzaga's statistics are among the best in the country. For now, I leave them on one line, because I do not think that a defeat should make them lose three places on the list of seeded given their overall profile.
Apart from these, there are four main competitors for the last two seeds. With a Duke sweep and nine wins in Quad 1, North Carolina made it to the finish line earlier this week. The heels are 11-1 on the road and have no loss outside the Quad 1, but it's possible that Zion Williamson's return and a run in the Duke ACC tournament could push again the Blue Devils on the front line. We will know a lot more when we see UNC and Duke face off in the semi-finals of ACC. I find it unlikely that three VAC teams get a seed, but after Tuesday night, the odds have gone up.
The SEC has a similar situation with Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. For the moment, Kentucky has been rewarded after beating Florida on Saturday. The Wildcats have 10 victories in Quad 1, while Tennessee have better defeats but fewer wins in the top end. The LSU situation is obviously changing for a variety of reasons, but winning the regular season title and SEC tournaments could make things interesting.
Michigan State is the other team in contention, but it will have to do a big part of the Big Ten tournament with Nick Ward in the training, hoping to see the teams leave them before the end of the list.
The support
The projections below are based on all games played until March 14, 2019. After the parenthesis, I've included some thoughts on the last four teams as well as on the other teams that I've had. considered.
| EST (WASHINGTON, DC) | SOUTH (LOUISVILLE) | |
| Columbia – March 22nd / 24th | Columbia – March 22nd / 24th | |
| 1) Virginia | 1) North Carolina | |
| 16) North Dakota St. / Norfolk Street | 16) Sam Houston St. | |
| 8) Seton Hall |
8) Central Florida | |
| 9) Baylor | 9) Oklahoma | |
| Hartford – March 21/23 | San Jose – March 22nd / 24th | |
| 5) Marquette |
5) Auburn | |
| 12) Murray Street | 12) Sainte Marie |
|
| 4) Kansas St. | 4) Kansas | |
| 13) UC Irvine | 13) Old Dominion | |
| Des Moines – March 21/23 | Tulsa – March 22nd / 24th | |
| 6) Buffalo | 6) Villanova | |
| 11) Temple | 11) Arizona St. | |
| 3) Purdue | 3) LSU | |
| 14) Harvard | 14) Northeast | |
| Jacksonville – March 21/23 | Columbus – March 22nd / 24th | |
| 7) Iowa St. | 7) Cincinnati | |
| ten) Syracuse | ten) Washington | |
| 2) Tennessee | 2) Michigan St. | |
| 15) Bradley |
15) Montana | |
| MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY) | WEST (ANAHEIM) | |
| Columbus – March 22nd / 24th | Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | |
| 1) Kentucky | 1) Gonzaga | |
| 16) Prairie View A & M | 16) Iona / F. Dickinson | |
| 8) Iowa | 8) VCU | |
| 9) Utah St. | 9) Ole Miss | |
| San Jose – March 22nd / 24th | Hartford – March 21/23 | |
| 5) Virginia Tech | 5) Mississippi Street | |
| 12) New Mexico St. | 12) State of Belmont / NC | |
| 4) Wisconsin | 4) Florida Street | |
| 13) Freedom | 13) Vermont | |
| Tulsa – March 22nd / 24th | Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | |
| 6) Maryland | 6) Nevada | |
| 11) St. John's / Florida |
11) Ohio Street | |
| 3) Houston | 3) Texas Tech | |
| 14) Northern Kentucky | 14) Georgia Street | |
| Jacksonville – March 21/23 | Des Moines – March 21/23 | |
| 7) Wofford | 7) Louisville | |
| ten) Minnesota | ten) TCU | |
| 2) duke | 2) Michigan | |
| 15) Gardner-Webb | 15) Colgate |
Last four:
St. John's – It was a close call between the Red Storm and the Ohio State to determine which team was avoiding Dayton, but I gave the go-ahead to the Buckeyes. St. John's did very little in the non-conference outside of beating VCU, and they lost twice each to DePaul, Providence and Xavier. The Red Storm swept Marquette in the regular season before fighting off against the Golden Eagles on Thursday night, and I do not think they're really under threat. The last three teams have been much harder to select.
Belmont – After losing in the OVC championship game against Murray State, the Bruins are in the big group, and they have the most convincing case of all the mid-majors who failed to win. Self-offer up to now. Until now, things have gone really well for them. They own a sweep of fellow Lipscomb bubbler and won the regular season game at Murray State. Despite a bruising 25-5 mark against Division I teams, Belmont's status on the bubble is tenuous, given both Quad 3's defeats and no win over potential candidates.
Florida – After doing business against Arkansas on Thursday, the Gators will have another chance to end up at LSU. Both games against the Tigers this season are overtime, with the road team winning every game. It is important to keep in mind that Florida only has 3 to 11 against teams in general conversation. The three of their victories in Quad 1 are on the road, but they have two losses in Quad 3 out of 14 losses in total.
State NC – A strong comeback and late free throws allowed the Wolfpack to defeat Clemson in their first game of the ACC tournament, but they were eliminated by Virginia on Thursday. The strength of Wolfpack's out-of-conference program is the worst in the country, and only one of their nine regular season wins for the ACC was against a team with a winning league record (Syracuse). It is worthwhile to win more home victories against Auburn and Clemson, but it seems that each year a team ends up being punished for its mediocre schedule outside of the conference, which this year may well be statewide. from NC. For the moment, all but two of the losses have been recorded against NET Top 25 teams, and decent statistics have barely entered the demarcation line.
Other teams considered:
Indiana – The Hoosiers have won their last four regular season games to return to the bubble image, but a poor performance for most of Thursday's match with Ohio State was perhaps the last nail in the coffin. A group of Michigan states represent two of IU's four Quad 1 wins, and the chairman's remarks on the diligence in injury impact research could certainly come into play. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers now have 15 losses and we have not seen any team win a general offer to just two games over .500 since 2001 in Georgia. So, despite the lack of defeats of Quad 3 or Quad 4, the story is not on the side of the Hoosiers.
UNC Greensboro – The Spartans put Wofford through a tough test in the SoCon final and took another win against fellow countryman Bubman Furman. The six defeats of the UNCG are summarized in Quad 1, but two victories against Furman are the only notable ones. Predictive metrics do not give them any advantage either, so it's likely that the Spartans are heading to the NIT despite the 26-game Division I win.
Alabama – The Crimson Tide came from behind to repel Ole Miss on Thursday night, preparing a rematch with Kentucky in the quarter-finals of the SEC tournament. Like many other qualifying teams of bubbles, Alabama already has 14 defeats, including two falling in the Quad 3 and five others against teams that were not part of the discussions. The home wins against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are Alabama's best, but it's hard to see them on the field without another Wildcats victory.
Creighton – The Bluejays still have not lost to a non-Top 75 team, but Thursday's loss to Xavier cost them their 14th loss of the season. Creighton has three victories in Quad 1, but the victory on the road at Marquette is their only win against a team comfortably in the pack.
Xavier – The end-of-season push continues for the Musketeers, who have won seven of eight games after a six-game losing streak. While they have only one win against a NET Top 50 team, they have four wins in Quad 1 and another five in Quad 2. A pair of defeats in Quad 3 hold them back, but a second win against Villanova would remain hope alive.
Texas – A loss to Big Kansas in tournament 12 led the Longhorns to 16-16. Although they boast of winning five Quad 1s, I can not see the committee putting together a .500 team.
Clemson – Wednesday's loss to NC State brought the Tigers to 1-10 in the Quad 1 games, which seems too hard to beat. Their only loss came in Miami, but Clemson's best wins were won against Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Lipscomb, all of whom were at home.
Furman – The aforementioned loss to UNC in Greensboro probably spelled the death knell for the Paladins, who finished 13-5 in the SoCon. They boast of having won a huge victory on the road outside the conference in Villanova and have only one bad defeat. Nevertheless, this home defeat against Samford could come back to haunt them, and it should be noted that three of Furman's 25 victories were won by non-Division I opponents. The Paladins were only 2 to 5 in the matches against the other best teams of the SoCon.
Break in conference:
Big Ten (8): Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, State of Michigan, Minnesota, State of Ohio, Purdue, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Duke, Florida, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7): Baylor, State of Iowa, Kansas, State of Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech
SEC (7): Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, State of Mississippi, Tennessee
American (4): Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Temple
Big East (4): Marquette, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova
West Mountain (2): Nevada, Utah State
Ohio Valley (2): Belmont, Murray State *
Pac-12 (2): State of Arizona, Washington
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's *
East America: Vermont
Atlantic 10: VCU
Atlantic Sun: Liberty *
Big Sky: Montana
Great South: Gardner-Webb *
Big West: UC Irvine
Colonial: Northeast *
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Northern Kentucky *
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Iona *
MAC: Buffalo
MEAC: State of Norfolk
Missouri Valley: Bradley *
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson *
Patriot: Colgate *
Southern: Wofford *
Southland: State of Sam Houston
SWAC: Prairie View A & M
Summit: State of North Dakota *
Sun Belt: State of Georgia
WAC: State of New Mexico
* – Automatic bid won
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) to get more ideas on college hoops and to receive an update each time new hooks are displayed.
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