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When the NFL is in an offensive evolutionary period as we see it now, there is a feverish push to find the most powerful systems followers and hire them for any vacancy. So it’s no surprise that in recent years we’ve seen the branches of Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan’s drive shafts shake quite vigorously.
Due to the laser’s focus on scoring points, for some reason homeowners and research companies are less focused on helping them prevent points from being scored. On a related note, there isn’t a stable of defensive-minded head coaches who develop equally robust training trees outside of Bill Belichick (now that the Pete Carroll tree seems to have withered a bit).
One reason could be that in the age of football, people don’t necessarily know where to look. Defensive stats depend on many outside factors. Very few, like Football Outsiders DVOA numbers, take the time to properly contextualize the situation and objectively mark units. And, if you’re a team sprinting against other organizations for a hot candidate, you probably won’t have time, for example, to call one of football’s top three offensive minds and ask them who they are. regularly gives problem, which would be a good starting point.
So let’s do a little homework for the owners who need a coach, and the expensive research firms that support them, and let’s talk about Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who has quickly become one of the most fascinating candidates. of the market. . Because if you called those coaches, there’s a good chance they’re saying Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, Staley’s mentor and schematic muse, has one of the most infuriating defenses in the league. Fangio’s run over the past 10 years has been nothing short of phenomenal as a defensive player for the 49ers, Bears and Broncos, with nine of those teams finishing in the top 12 against the pass and eight of those teams finishing in the top seven. . (The 2018 Bears were the first defense in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.) Staley is one of a handful of Fangio apprentices.
evone Moore / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
Let’s go back to 2017, 2018, and 2019 to see how Shanahan, McVay, Reid, and some of their descendants perform versions of their offenses (I’m also including the Titans’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith as he uses a version of the wide zone pattern. of Shanahan.) stood up to Fangio’s defenses, with Staley on staff as the outside linebackers coach:
• 2017 (bear):
Against. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
15 points allowed, 82 opposing QB scores, 278 yards per clear pass allowed, 3.3 yards per carry.
• 2018 (bear):
Against. Sean McVay, Aries
6 runs allowed, 52 rushing yards allowed, 162 net passing yards, 19.1 opposing QB.
Against. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
9 runs allowed, 47 rushing yards allowed, 232 net passing yards allowed, 65.8 QB opposing.
• 2019: (Broncos)
Against. Andy Reid, Chiefs
30 and 23 points allowed, respectively (Patrick Mahomes left with an injury in the second quarter of Game 1, but played the whole of Game 2). In both games, the Broncos’ expected added points were a clear plus in the isolation of Denver’s rushed defense.
Against. Matt LaFleur, Packers
27 points allowed, 77 yards allowed, 235 yards allowed in net passes, 96.2 opposing QB rating (Aaron Rodgers), with only one pass touchdown given up, 22% conversion rate in third bet.
Against. Arthur Smith, Titans
0 runs allowed, 39 rushing yards allowed, seven sacks, 14% third-down conversion rate, opposite QB ratings of 9.5 (Marcus Mariota before being benched) and 78.1 (Ryan Tannehill takes over).
Against. Matt Nagy, bear
16 points allowed, 120 clear passing yards allowed, 27% third-down conversion rate allowed, 70 opposite QB rating.
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The point is, Fangio has historically had a pretty good idea of how to stop, or at least significantly slow down, the systems run by the league’s most sought-after offensive coaches. And the more we go down this path of offensive innovation, the more teams will fire head coaches in search of a better option, and the more teams will theoretically use one of these three coaches’ offensive playbooks when they hire. someone of these. respective trees.
Still, we don’t hear of a Fangio tree, mostly because of Fangio’s nomadic path to Denver. Staley is one of the few coaches who has studied the program over time, dating back to his days as defensive coordinator for Hutchinson Community College in 2010 and 2011 (where, oddly enough, he developed two NFL Draft picks , Markus Golden and De “Vondre Campbell). McVay hired Staley in Los Angeles to replace Wade Phillips specifically because Fangio had been such a thorn in his side since entering the NFL (and because Staley blew all the staff away during the interview process).
Fast forward to this year, and Staley, 37, has not only successfully adapted Fangio’s defense, but seems to have changed some aspects of it. The Rams are sixth in DVOA. They are fourth in points surrendered, second in yards surrendered, fourth in turnovers and first in touchdowns surrendered. More interestingly, as RamsWire pointed out earlier this season, Staley is approaching an NFL record for the fewest second-half points allowed in modern NFL history.
Rams allowed nine points in the second half total from week 4 to week 9. In their next game against the Buccaneers, they allowed 10 points in the second half after dropping 14 in the first.
While there isn’t a single defensive statistic that can singularly identify a good coach, Staley regularly shuts down opponents after having had the opportunity to make adjustments. It’s a good place to start.
The former college quarterback managed to bring an offensive lens to one of the NFL’s greatest defensive ploys, and the Rams’ ability to consistently dictate what an offense can and cannot do over the course of the game. appears to be directly related to Staley’s ability. to negatively influence the opposing quarterback.
One might ask: if a young, intelligent offensive The coordinator was well acquainted with one of the league’s most powerful ploys, approaching an NFL record that can almost exclusively be linked to his in-game adjustments and leading one of the league’s top five overall units, at how quickly could it be a person transferred to an interview room and given a head coach position?
So other than his distinction as a defensive coach, what is it that stops a similar flow of attention for Staley?
From the outside looking inside, it looks like either Staley is on one of the luckiest runs for a young defensive coordinator in recent history, or McVay may have identified the next McVay and hired him so no one else could. If you’re a team looking for a head coach this winter, how do you like those chances?
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