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Lula has 33% of the voting intentions, according to an investigation led by Ibope for the CNI – AFP / Archives
The former president Lula , who is a prisoner, remains the candidate of a third of the Brazilians, and in his absence, only the right-wing deputy Jair Bolsonaro and the ecologist Marina Silva exceed 10% of the voters' intentions for the elections. 39, October, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is serving a 12-year sentence and a month in prison for corruption since April, has 33% of voting intentions, according to a survey conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Human Rights. Public opinion and
It is followed by Bolsonaro, with 15%, and by Marina Silva, with 7%, in addition to Ciro Gomes and Geraldo Alckmin, with 4%.
But in a scenario without Lula – cuj the candidacy will probably be invalidated by the Electoral Court – Jair Bolsonaro would get 17% of the votes; Marina Silva, 13%; Ciro Gomes, 8%, and Geraldo Alckmin; 6%
Lula's vote does not seem transferable, as Fernando Haddad, former mayor of São Paulo, as a possible replacement candidate, would only get 2% of the vote.
The percentage of white votes would increase from 22% to 33% in a configuration without Lula, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of two percentage points
The polarization of these elections is seen in the broad rejection generated by both Lula and Bolsonaro
The survey, conducted between June 21 and 24 with 2,000 voters, presents results similar to those conducted by Datafolha earlier this month, which gave Lula 30% of the voting intentions and, in his absence, Bolsonaro advanced with 19%, followed by Marina Silva, with 14% to 15% of voting intentions
Ibope does not make simulations of second round, but in Datafolha Marina Silva was well ahead of any candidate except Lula.
As it will take place on October 7th, the second round being scheduled for October 28th if no candidate gets more than half of the valid votes.
– Polarization –
The polarization of these elections, announced as the most uncertain since the re-democratization, is reflected in the rejection rates and divides the country geographically and socially.
To the question "Among these possible candidates to the President of the Republic, in which you will NOT HAVE TO VOTE FOR SOMETHING?", 32% answered Bolsonaro and 31%, Lula. The lowest rejection rates among the main candidates are Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes, both with 18%.
Lula's support is stronger in the north-east (54%), in women (35%), in young people aged 25-34 (38%), and also among voters under 34 years of age, and increases as schooling and family income levels decline, according to Ibope.
In scenarios without Lula, Bolsonaro's main support was men (only 10% of women would vote for) and people aged 35 to 44, and their support increases in proportion to the level of education, reaching 24% among higher education graduates and income levels. ]
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