A high dollar will help the government meet the gold rule in 2018

The devaluation of the real in recent months has had an unexpected effect on the public accounts. The dollar's rebound, which has risen 16.3% this year, will boost the central bank's profits in the first half and help the government reach the gold standard this year.

Established by Article 167 of the Constitution, the golden rule prohibits the government from borrowing to cover current expenses (day-to-day). The Union can issue only public debt instruments to finance capital expenditures (such as investments and debt repayments) or rolls (renews) the public debt itself.

The profit of the Central Bank will help the economic team. the debt is transferred to the national treasury and used to crush the public debt, reducing the government's borrowing requirements. The devaluation of the real increases the gains of the Central Bank because it increases the real value of international reserves, currently around US $ 380 billion. BC's first-half results will only be released by the National Monetary Council (NMC) at the end of August and transferred to the Treasury by the tenth business day of September.

Golden rule, the National Treasury Secretary, Mansueto Almeida, said that these financial revenues have not yet entered the Treasury's forecast because of the difficulty of predicting how much the gain will be. "Five or six months ago, we expected the exchange rate to end at the end of the year between 3.30 and 3.35 R $." Yesterday it was more than $ 3.80 With the exchange rate well above [do previsto] the profit of the Central Bank will surely be expressive.I could not tell you how much.

BNDES

Today, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) announced that it will repay the Treasury 30 billion reais, to 60 billion reais the total returned to the Union this year. reduces the gross public debt and also helps to adhere to the golden rule.The financial institution still has more than R $ 70 billion to return to the Treasury in the coming months.

A l. Originally, the government had to get $ 205.8 billion R to reach the gold rule in 2018. The diamond fell to R $ 102.9 billion from BNDES returns to Treasury, the disbursement of $ 27.5 billion from the Sovereign Fund (resources that were stopped in the Treasury single account but could not be used) and the authorization of the Court of Auditors. (TCU) to use 17.4 billion reais from the National Development Fund (NDF) and 6.7 billion reais from the Telecommunications Inspection Fund (Fistel) which were related and could not be spent on 39, other purposes. 19659002] To cover these 102.9 billion reais, the Treasury obtained from the BNDES a refund of 70 billion reais, with the cancellation of 20 billion of restands to pay (the expenses of previous years were transferred to the current fiscal year) and with 12.9 billion reais of other measures, such as the reclbadification of income set in the single treasury account. According to Almeida, compliance with the golden rule is guaranteed this year.

The Treasury Secretary added that if the profits of the central bank are sufficient, other sources of funding can be used to lower 2019. For next year, the Treasury estimates the need for funding 139 billion reais. The government, however, should have other difficulties because it will no longer be able to rely on the BNDES refunds or on the money of the related funds.

Disastrous Assignment

Regarding the costly allocation of oil in the pre-saline layer, According to Almeida, once the Congress will have approved the bill of Senator Fernando Coelho Bezerra (MDB-PE ), the government could quickly solve the problem.

"Senator Fernando Coelho's substitute puts elements for the expensive allocation solution.After being approved, you can quickly sit at the table with Petrobras and resolve the outstanding issues," said the secretary. .

In 2010, Petrobras paid the Union $ 74 billion to explore 5 billion barrels of oil. Prior salt. However, after drilling began, total estimated barrels increased to 14 billion barrels. The state-owned company is expected to pay about 100 billion reais to the federal government to exploit the rest of the reserves and is in negotiations with the National Treasury and the Ministry of Mines and Energy to define the method of payment.

Edition: Denise Griesinger