[ad_1]
The Brazilian economy is expected to close the year with GDP growth lower than expected, the sum of all wealth produced in the country – and with a higher than expected inflation rate initially.
The data are included in the 39th edition of the Conjuntura Charter published Thursday (28) by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), in which economists revise the macroeconomic projections for 2018.
For the coming year, however, the Institute maintains a 3% GDP growth.
The study indicates that the National Broad Consumer Price Index) is expected to close the year at 4.2% slightly below the objective of the government by 4.5%, but higher than the estimates of the March letter, which was 3.6%
Projections take into account the increase in government-administered items and the impact of the truckers' strike on prices in general, in addition to the rise in the exchange rate, which also had an impact on prices
Brazil Risk
The evaluation of economists is that the A strike in the road transport sector, which paralyzed the country for about 10 days between late May and early June, is expected to have a significant negative impact on GDP in the second quarter. "In addition, the shortage of goods during the strike led to higher prices, which led to a rise in IPCA-15, which rose by 1.1% in June, against a deflation of 0%. , 2% in June last year. "
Economists estimate that Brazilian risk has risen significantly more than in other emerging countries in recent months, as shown by the Brazilian risk indicator. In the internal scenario, instability has been fundamentally linked for some time to the lack of definition of how the tax problem will be tackled.
"This situation has been aggravated in the past two months by the truckers' strike, the negative supply to the economy, caused significant product losses and price increases and had direct impacts and indirect on public accounts. "
For economists," there is some doubt about the degree of persistence of shocks that, in addition to the direct effects on production and prices, the strike may have exacerbated the perception of risk. by the agents in relation to the economic and political environment – already of course the uncertainties of the electoral framework – making them even more cautious in their decisions regarding consumption and investment. "
Degradation of perception Brazil's risk profile, according to the Ipera letter, has little to do with the country's external account situation, since the Brazilian current account deficit remained relatively low over the course of the year. last two years
"After reaching At the beginning of 2015, about 4.5% of GDP, the external deficit fell to 0.6% over the twelve-month period ending in May. Direct investment in the country is more than five times greater than the current account deficit. The volume of international reserves in the BC (Central Bank) is higher than the public sector external debt, "economists said.
The unemployment rate, which had dropped in seasonally adjusted terms throughout 2017, has stopped, stabilize around 12.5% of the labor force – a figure that remains more than double that of the pre-crisis period.
The general overview of the Ipea scenario is that l & # 39; The Brazilian economy showed strong volatility throughout the second quarter and the increase in volatility reflected a change in the external scenario and a deterioration of the country's internal conditions.
Source link
