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SÃO PAULO – ( Updated at 4:30 pm At the height of the day, the US currency reached R $ 3.9196, the highest level since June 7, when which it attained R $ 3.9674.
Concerns aroused by a trade war waged by the United States the most unfavorable external environment, as they jeopardize prospects for global economic growth Emerging currencies have the worst session performance in a list of major world currencies, with losses of more than 1%.
The Brazilian real has the tenth largest loss of the day against the dollar, though it is still better than its peers, Russian Ruble and South African Rand). The trade war issue is expected to be present throughout the week preceding the scheduled start of the imposition of additional US duties on Chinese products and vice versa.
Despite the dollar's surge, some market professionals point out that they do not see "dysfunctionality" in the market. Even for this reason, there is some flexibility for the Central Bank to stay out of the market without new net trading offers. "The market is not testing the OC and the dollar is rising here because of the external," says Paulo Nepomuceno, chief strategist at Coinvalores. "If the BCB sells swaps, it will make a small lot to mitigate volatility," he adds.
For the Danske Bank experts, the worsening of the emerging environment and concerns over the trade war over the past month. And internal political problems end up generating additional pressure on the real. "The long-term prospects for the real seem more promising in terms of economic recovery and the" burden "remains attractive, while we believe that the pre-election issues should weigh even more on the currency in 2018."
the director of Wagner Investimentos, José Faria Junior, the dollar trend is high in the medium and long term. "The falls should be used for shopping," he says, especially when the price is about R $ 3.80. It does not rule out a possible overall risk reduction, whether through external trade negotiations, an agreement in Germany or not very strong data from the United States, may result in a decline in the currency to near R $ 3.80. For the specialist, the current region, close to $ 3.90, is reasonable for making short-term sales.
At approximately 4:30 pm, the commercial dollar increased from R $ 0.86 to R $ 3,900. The futures contract for July, in turn, was up 0.80% to R $ 3.9205.
Interest
Future interest contracts oscillate in today's trading session, marked by Brazil's weak match day liquidity in World Cup. The contracts started the first transactions with high rates, but reversed the trend and recorded a decline.
The movement occurs despite the highest dollar. Previously, the US currency rose 0.93% to 3.9127 reais. "It is a global movement and the real is still among the best performers, so I do not expect an action from the Central Bank with new exchange sales." currency ", said David Cohen,
This afternoon, January DI / 2020 was trading at 8.29% (8.32% at the previous adjustment); January DI / 2021 has a rate of 9.27% (9.31% in the previous adjustment);
The Ibovespa maintains the rate of 11.41% (11.52% in the previous adjustment)
trend observed in the gap and remains in the negative domain, but maintains the level of 72,000 points. The day is marked by a very small financial turnaround and the poor performance of major stock exchanges in the world – in this context, most blue chips are down.
This afternoon the Ibovespa fell 0.46% to 72.436 points, after reaching 71.935 points at the bottom of the day (-1.14%). It should be noted, however, that the index represents only R $ 2.3 billion in volume traded up to now – the match of the Brazilian National Team in World Cup pushed the investors this morning.
If this pace is maintained, Ibovespa will end the day with $ 4.4 trillion exchanged, representing the second-smallest daily financial recovery in 2018 – Jan. 15, the index ended the session with a volume of only R $ 4.1 billion
"The day is slow, the market follows Europe and the United States and everything is heavy," says Ari Santos, head of H's operations. Commcor. "When Trump Speaks of Trade War, Things Go Ugly."
Over the weekend, new statements by the US President revived fears of a global trade war. with the European Union regarding the adoption of tariffs in the automotive sector and tensions with Canada have revived and gave global investors a defensive position.
In Asia and in Europe, the most relevant exchanges On the negative side, the day ended the day, and in the United States the main indexes are down. In this context, the majority of Ibovespa blue chips recede and pull down the Brazilian market
The negative climax is with Vale ON (-1.65%), also depressed by the under-expected data of the PMIs Chinese industrialists and dropping iron ore. Banks also fell, with Bradesco PN (-1.34%) and Itaú Unibanco PN (-0.8%) – Banco do Brasil ON (+ 0.17%) is the exception and is able to show a slight increase. [19659002PerfobrbadactionswereprobabilityproblemsPetrobrasON(-01%)andPetrobrasPN(+02%)negativegativeinchallengewithWT
) On the negative side, Fleury ON (3.1%), CVC ON (-2.8%), Localizaion ON (-2.7%) and Multiplan ON (-2.7%) experienced the largest declines of the day. On the other side, BRF ON (+ 14.6%) pulls and has the best performance of Ibovespa. Investors are reacting to the projects of the new president of the company, Pedro Parente – he plans to get $ 5 billion reais this year with anticipating receivables and selling business overseas.
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