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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa softened its losses on Monday (2) after falling 1.14% to the lows of the day after Wall Street indices, which also rallied all over the during the trading session, but keeping an eye on a US trade war and also the poor performance of Chinese industrial production. The dollar, on the other hand, followed in a strong fort also pulled from the outside and still by the lack of action of the central bank.
At 16:46 GMT, the benchmark index of the Brazilian stock market fell 0.06% to 72,717 points, while the commercial dollar exceeded the mark of R $ 3.90, leaping from 0 , 97% at the same time, listed at R $ 3.9149 for sale. Among the shares, the highlight of this is for BRF (BRFS3), which jumps over 16% amid the restructuring announced on Friday (see more ratchet here).
On the international radar, in an interview with US television Fox News US President Donald Trump comes back to attack the EU (European Union) and trade agreements concluded until then with block According to the president, the EU is "perhaps as bad as China" in its trade relations with the United States, drawing attention again to the industry Automotive: "Look at the example of cars. They send their Mercedes here and we can not send our cars there, "he criticized.
Still in the interview, Trump accuses the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) of manipulating the market, according to critics made Saturday 30, when he posted via his official Twitter account that the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman, accepted his request to increase oil production "maybe up to 39. to 2 million barrels "to offset the production of Iran and Venezuela.To contribute to the climate of increased risk aversion, the latest data from China's industrial activity showed that the expansion of the sector lost its strength over the past month, leading to a decline in metal raw materials China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped from 51.9 to 51.5 May to June, while a similar measure of IHS Markit and Caixin Media fell from 51.1 to 51 during the same period.
In the face of so much turbulence, US dollar futures maturing in August increased by 0.72% to R $ 3,917. Continuing the plan observed in recent months, British Columbia announced Friday (29) that it would return to the $ 14 billion swaps expected on August 1 and continue to conduct currency and line auctions. in the coming weeks.
Market Highlights
Among the negative highlights, in addition to commodities-related stocks, Localiza and CVC papers correct last week's gains, while on the positive side, BRF's badets , which triggered the restructuring plan announced last Friday (29).
The highest increases among the shares (19659012)
– Brazil X Mexico: the dispute that goes far beyond the World Cup 2.4% of the dollar last week The central bank announced on Friday that it planned to fully refinance the $ 14 billion in swaps expected on August 1 and to proceed with auctions of exchanges and exchange of lines in the weeks to come, always necessary. On Monday, the BCB will auction up to 14,000 swap contracts on August 1; the monetary authority reaffirms that it sees no restriction on the stock of exchange rate swaps far exceeding the maximum volumes achieved in the past. Among the indicators, highlighted Wednesday (4), the result of industrial production, published by IBGE. GO Associates expects a 16.6% drop from April, which, if confirmed, will be the largest decline in the industry's historic series, reflecting the truckers' strike. According to economists, previous sector indicators showed very negative numbers, corroborating the pessimistic projection of the sector in the month. Already Friday (6), the most important event of the week: the Consumer IPCA (June). The expectation of GO is up 1.02%, bringing the indicator to 4.14% in the cumulative 12 months. Inflation should continue to be driven by the truckers strike and the activation of the red flag level 2 in the electricity bills. "In terms of prospects, inflation is expected to remain below the center of the target this year." Part of the effects of the strike should be returned in the coming months, however, the devaluation of the currency should lead to higher inflation in the year "GO Associates
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Economic Diary of the Week
External agenda of the week [19659007] In the United States, pay attention to Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4) .On the first day, the market will close earlier, at 13:00, because of the holiday of the day of the country's independence. , the week will pay particular attention to the trade war between the United States and its trading partners.
In this scenario of uncertainty, the market will keep an eye on the activity data for the months of May and June.Week: June Industrial PMI comes out Monday (2), May industry orders come out Tuesday (3), and the PMI Compounds and June services will be released Thursday (5).
Finally, most important data for the week come out Friday (6), with the report on the employment, which will be important to measure the pace of inflation in the country. Higher than expected data is expected to strengthen the recovery in the United States and increase the probability of the scenario with 4 high interest rates in 2018.
Political News
Amidst the climate of the World Cup, the policy becomes less important in the newspaper pages. But even so, important developments that may have implications even in elections remain important. On Friday, Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the STF decided to reject the petition filed by the PT's defense that an appeal for Lula's freedom would be badyzed by the second panel, rather than by the plenary court as determined by Minister Edson Fachin. Therefore, the case of the PT should be badyzed by the plenary of the Court only in August, since the Supreme Court has entered into session.
At the last session of the STF before the break, Minister Edson Fachin said that he would first badyze whether the question of the former president's inadmissibility would be either not met by the court before discussing the issue of prison. Jota website. Fachin gave Lula's defense five days to clarify whether he wants to be eligible or not. In practice, if the Supreme Federal Court decides that Lula is ineligible, the former president will not have any other instance to appeal.
Movements for electoral alliances also attract attention. According to Folha de S. Paulo, with difficulty in forging coherent alliances, the PDT pre-candidate Ciro Gomes yielded to the pressure and signaled to the PSB with the vice vacancy in his Plateau plateau. In exchange, however, he wants the party to announce his support for his candidacy in the next two weeks.
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