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SÃO PAULO – The dollar climbed from one more step on Monday and closed at the highest level in nearly a month, pushed by the more distant exterior. This is the first time since June 7 that the rate ends the session above R $ 3.90, returning to levels before the start of the central bank's aggressive liquidity program.
A little over three weeks ago, local authorities announced that it would offer $ 24.5 billion in currency exchange contracts between June 8 and June 15. Only the announcement was enough to bring the dollar back from R $ 3.90 to R $ 3.70, a level that was maintained until British Columbia completed the program and reduced the pace of intervention. .
The market is now looking for new levels of balance, while accumulating, to date, its sixth consecutive session without the net offer of swaps. This time, the dollar sign already follows, more closely, the behavior of the main emerging, which decreases the need for action of the OC. The question, however, is that the overall direction of the US currency has been on the rise.
On Monday, the dollar closed up 0.93%, to R $ 3.9125, having reached the maximum in R $ 3.9196. Among the world's major currencies, the real was the fourth worst performing country, close to peers such as the Russian ruble, the South African rand and the Australian dollar (19659005). Featuring the toughest rhetoric of the US government, the issue is expected to be present throughout the week, before the planned start of additional US duties on Chinese products and vice versa next Friday .
Market professionals do not rule out that the dollar could touch the $ 4 level in the coming weeks. "The Central Bank can intervene to smooth the movement, but we have no local reasons to resist external pressure," says Reginaldo Galhardo, director of foreign exchange operations at Treviso Corretora. "What BC is doing with the currency swap is to minimize the dollar's hike, that is, instead of going up to a certain level in a month, it takes three dollars . "
In addition to the external factor, the reading on the market is that the presidential dispute should gain weight on the scene, especially after the football World Cup. For the moment, political uncertainties still discourage bets more favorable to local badets. In Focus Bulletin, for example, there are those who expect the dollar to end in 2018 at $ 4.00 and next year at $ 4.10.
The median of market expectations, meanwhile, is R $ 3.70 for this year and R $ 3.60 for 2019. This is due to the fact that the main scenario, in the evaluation some experts, still working on the election of a candidate more aligned to the reform program, and some accommodation of instability there.
"In the coming months, we hope that the uncertainty badociated with elections stands out. Opinion polls become more frequent and decisions on political alliances are made," write Bofa economists, David Becker and Ana Madeira, in a note.
The deterioration of the external environment justifies a higher level for the dollar in the end of this year and next year, despite the Central Bank's interventions in the exchange, the experts say. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has revised its projections upward and now estimates the quotation will be R $ 3.65 and R $ 3.72, before reads of R $ 3.52 and R $ 3.62, respectively, at closing 2018 and 2019.
A more negative scenario for badets – which would have a non-market political agenda and high doubts about governance – could lead to a contraction in GDP in 2019, while inflation would exceed the target cap, by 7%, and the Selic battery double with the dollar at $ 5.50
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