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The main reasons that led the National Federation of Automotive Distribution (Fenabrave) to revise downward its forecast of new vehicle sales in 2018 are the lack of clarity of the scenario of the presidential election and the effects of the truckers' strike in the economic activity and in the confidence of the businessman and the consumer.
The growth forecast in 2018 fell from 12.8% to 10%, considering the segments of automobiles, light commercial vehicles, trucks and buses, Fenabrave said Tuesday at a conference of press.
] In April, however, the entity had raised the estimate from 11.8% to 15.2% (latest available forecast until this morning). If the new expectation is confirmed, the sector will sell 2,462 million units. Last year, 2,239 million units were sold.
According to economist Tereza Fernandes, who works at the consulting firm MB Associados and is responsible for Fenabrave's projections, the strike, in addition to hampering production and sales during the days when the roads were blocked, "took away", which began to invest, and consumers, who are frightened by the recurring rumors of a new closure.
In addition, the situation of truckers is not yet defined, said the economist, who recalled that Minister Luiz Fux of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) should decide at the end of August on the legality of the minimum price table for freight.
In politics, Tereza said that four months ago, it was expected that a "reformist" candidate would have a better chance of winning the election. However, the scenario is still very uncertain. "Fear is the victory of a populist candidate, whether left or right, who will not make Brazil walk, that is the reading from the economic point of view," he said.
The downward revision was mainly influenced by light-duty vehicles, whose expansion forecasts went from 13% to 9.7%. The estimate for heavy vehicles, in turn, rose from 9% to 18.3%.
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