Strike and elections drive down sales forecasts for vehicles in 2018

Vehicle sales forecasts for 2018 were reduced from 13% to 9.7% by dealers, following the fall in contractor confidence – a consequence of the truckers' strike – and the scenario indefinite elections.

According to the president of the National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution (Fenabrave), Alarico Assumpção, the strike had a very negative effect on the registration plates of cars and light commercial vehicles in June. Last month, auto sales reached 163,500 units, down 0.55% from May, when 164,400 cars were registered.

"The truckers' strike has reduced sales and reduced business confidence in the economy," badumes Assumpção. For the manager, the effects of the closure were worse for the dealer sector than the World Cup. "The components did not reach car manufacturers and factories, which did not put production on sale," he says.

Apart from that, the measures taken by the government to meet the demands of the strikers, such as the production sector. According to the partner of MB Associados (who advises Fenabrave), Tereza Fernandez da Silva, tabulation is unconstitutional and companies face severe operational difficulties due to the imposition of minimum values ​​for what is paid on transportation of goods in the country

To make matters worse, the electoral scenario also permeates the market of uncertainties. "Four months ago, we were more expecting Brazil to elect a reformist candidate, and today we see an inclination of the electorate towards the populists," says Teresa. populist, whether left or right, will not make Brazil work, "he adds.

Beyond the trust of the business man, the consumer is also weak. "The MBA professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Mauro Rochlin, says that the increase in inflation in June scared the consumers." For the Brazilians, inflation is higher and the environment is much more turbulent now. "Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts are also undergoing constant revisions, which already show that the economy could grow by nearly 1.5% this year [19659002] With all these negative signs, distribution stocks are 144,000 units, the equivalent of 36 jo urs

Low base

Despite the decline in June, vehicle sales remained positive for the first half, reaching 1.13 million units in the sum of automobiles and light commercials, compared to 991.3 thousand in the same period last year, up 13.71%.

In total, the total area of ​​roads, including buses, motorcycles and road tools, reached 1.69 million in the first half, an increase of 12.37% over the first half of 2017.

Alarico Assumpção understands that these significant numbers in advance account for the very weak base of last year. "In 2017, the economic recovery began in the second half, so these data are on a very weak basis," he admits.

Regarding family income and loans granted by private banks, Assumpção estimates that the first six months of this year have been a significant improvement, but that the events of May have had a negative impact on the automotive sector . "The semester was simply not better because of the truckers' strike, which reduced sales and affected confidence," he says.

Regarding credit, Fenabrave's president points out that the spread – difference between the interest charged by banks and the basic rate of the economy, the Selic – fell more regularly. "The spread is more consistent with the number of defects, currently at 3.66%," Assumpção said.