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A devaluation of 10% of the real next year may lead to an inflation measured by IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) at 5%, underlines the Credit Suisse survey obtained exclusively by the Folha . 19659002] The study seeks to predict the effects of a real lower on prices, which economists know as a "pbadage".
Although the impact is not clearly noticeable to the average consumer, for example, the raw materials that must be imported by the industry – this puts pressure on prices.
The magnitude of the transfer of the exchange rate to inflation varies with the time and pace of economic activity. under normal conditions, this effect is considerable: every 10% of the exchange rate devaluation, 0.7 percentage point is added to inflation.
But as the Brazilian economy leaves a period of In the current context of low growth and high unemployment, a devaluation of 10% of the real will add 0 ", Estimate Lucas Vilela, economist at Credit Suisse, for 44 points inflation factor of 2019.
The crucial factor of this equation, explains the economist, is the great idleness of the companies. In a context of weaker demand, the need to import from the industry, for example, may be less.
As expected, inflation for Credit Suisse by 2014 is 4.5%, the effect would lead to nearly 5% The core of the Bank's goal 4.25% in the next year, with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
This is not the central scenario at the moment. Economists' forecasts for inflation have accelerated to around 4% due to trucker downtimes, but the level is still considered comfortable. 19659002] In any case, the warning signal relating to inflationary pressures is ongoing, with at least two important events underway to tinker with the exchange: the pre-election period and the spills of one year. commercial war between the United States and China [19659002] Vilela predicts a strong it next year – from 6.5% currently to 9.5% by the end of 2019 – in order to avoid a rise of inflation from 2020.
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