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SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) – A 10% devaluation of the real next year could push inflation measured by the IPCA to 5%, according to the Credit Survey Switzerland obtained exclusively by the report.
The study seeks to predict the effects of a real lower on prices, which economists call "transmission."
Although the impact is not clearly noticeable to the average consumer, the higher dollar costs, for example, for raw materials that need to be imported by the industry – this puts pressure on prices.
The magnitude of the transfer of the exchange rate to inflation varies with the time and pace of economic activity.
According to the Credit Suisse team, under normal conditions, this effect is considerable: every 10% of the exchange rate devaluation, 0.7 percentage point is added to the credit. ;inflation.
But while the Brazilian economy is emerging from a period of recession and is going through a slow recovery cycle, this exchange rate is not negligible, but it is lower.
In the current environment of low growth and high unemployment, a 10% devaluation of the real would add 0.44 percentage point to the inflation of 2019, estimates Lucas Vilela, an economist at Credit Suisse.
The crucial thing in this equation, says the economist, is the great idleness of the companies. In a context of weaker demand, the need to import from the industry, for example, may be less.
As expected, inflation for Credit Suisse for 2019 is 4.5%, the effect would bring it to nearly 5% – close to the heart of the goal of the Central Bank of 4.25% next year, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
For the moment, this is not the central scenario of the bank, which expects an average dollar of 3.65 reais in 2019.
Although the economists' forecasts for inflation have accelerated to about 4% due to the stoppage of truckers, the level is still considered comfortable.
Be that as it may, the warning signal regarding inflationary pressures is ongoing, with at least two important events pending: the pre-election period and the overflows of a trade war between the United States and China.
Vilela expects a sharp increase in the Selic rate next year – from 6.5% currently to 9.5% by the end of 2019 – in order to avoid an increase in inflation at from 2020.
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