The GDP outlook drops sharply and political uncertainties threaten the country's economic recovery

The index of economic activity of the Central Bank (IBC-Br), considered by economists as an overview of GDP, recorded a sharp decline of 3, 34% in May compared to April . This is the largest decline ever recorded in this economic indicator since the beginning of the historical series in 2003. The negative result is largely due to the strike of which stopped the country for about two weeks late may. The decline in the index exceeds, for example, that of December 2008, at the height of the international financial crisis, with a decrease of 3.19% of the BAC-Br.

The result follows the downward trend of other indicators published recently by IBGE. Industrial activity fell by 10.9% on the same basis of comparison, while the services sector fell by 3.8% and retail sales by 4.9%.

In practice, says the economist and consultant of Industries Federation of Santa Catarina (Fiesc) Paulo Guilhon, Brazil, in this case, pays the price of bets almost exclusively on the road modal as a logistic standard.

– The truckers' strike showed that Brazil is inefficient in terms of product distribution. If there was a rail network that covered the country, perhaps the economic impact was not so great – Guilhon said that despite the negative result, still bet on a GDP growth following market trends which believes in a progress between 1.5% and 1.7% compared to last year.

However, he sees not only the truckers' strike as the only factor to show the fall of BAC-Br. The economist explains that the GDP will be lower than expected by two other factors. According to him, the protectionist measures of the United States and the electoral scenario will certainly have an impact on this year's GDP.

– GDP growth is synonymous with investment. The more investment in the country will be important, the greater the wealth accumulation will be great. In a scenario where the United States has increased interest rates and practiced measures that protect the domestic market, coupled with an uncertain future from an electoral point of view and a breach of public accounts, the trend is that The country's economy does not grow much. Nobody wants to invest in a place of uncertainty – he explained. The federal government pays half of the 13th pensioner in August. recording for 970 places in the Cedars of SC