Brexit: Santos Silva says member states must be prepared for lack of agreement – Economy

"We are very committed to reaching an agreement with the UK, but we must prepare for all scenarios," said Augusto Santos Silva in an interview with TSF

. prepared for a scenario where the agreement only concerns trade in the medium term, but we must also prepare if we arrive in March 2019 without an agreement. "

Augusto Santos Silva says he is not surprised by this recommendation from Brussels. "On Brexit Day (…), the UK automatically abandons 750 different agreements, ranging from customs to commercial flights, not to mention satellite systems," said Santos Silva,

"We need to work towards a better agreement, but keeping in mind that two years have pbaded since the date of the referendum The British government only issued last week its most elaborate proposal for a new agreement, "he added .

If an agreement is signed before March 30, 2019, European legislation will continue to apply only in the United Kingdom on January 1. January 2021, after a transition period of 21 months. Without agreement, there will be no transitional period and the divorce is consumed immediately on March 30th. The European Commission calls this scenario "without agreement" or "on the edge".

The seizure is large within the European Union, with the exits of the British government by Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and British negotiator Brexit David Davis. His successor, Dominic Raab, was Thursday with representatives of the European Union. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, it does not mitigate the ceaseless challenge to Theresa May's strategy

The United Kingdom and the European Union should be able to reach an agreement by the time October, at a European Council.
All lose, warns the IMF
The International Monetary Fund has since published new economic data to badess the impact of Brexit. It considers that an exit without agreement can have a long-term effect on the community economy of 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), a larger negative impact than that reported in any other country. other studies

. this negative effect would have a particular impact on Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands. In a more pessimistic scenario, Ireland could see its GDP fall by 4%, while in the Netherlands and Belgium the fall is from 1945 to 9004. The impact of Brexit on Portugal should be 0.5% in case of exit without agreement "The strength of the integration between the euro zone and the United Kingdom means that there are no winners with Brexit", has said the IMF in a paper on the consequences of London's exit process from Britain. Community Block

The financial institution's calculations indicate that costs in case of "sudden exit", that is to say with complete break and without free trade agreement with the l & # 39; EU, can lead to a 1.5% reduction in Community GDP over a period of five to ten years.

There are negative consequences, even in a free trade agreement scenario, the Fund warns. In this case, the impact on the European economy would be 0.8%. The most positive scenario would be an option similar to that of Norway, to stay with access to the single European market and to comply with European laws.
During a conference call, Mahmood Pradhan, head of the sector in question, said that the number of jobs could reach 0.7% of the workforce in the country. European Union, with more than one million jobs. "We are very concerned that the process is going forward and we do not see clearly what the future relationships will be, when important things are happening," she said. he declared. "In the IMF accounts, the United Kingdom will be the most affected by the abandonment of the European Union.It would lose about four percent of GDP, more than double that of the Union. The IMF calls for caution in the conclusions to be drawn from these figures, noting that forecasts, like the negotiations themselves, are surrounded by uncertainty, undermining the robustness of the estimates.