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Venezuela's inflation could reach 1 000 000% this year, according to an IMF projection that leaves room for many scenarios and one certainty: the dramatic deterioration of living conditions in the country.
at least a Venezuelan – $ 1.50 by the parallel market rate – gives only to buy a kilo of chicken.
The sluggish outlook of the IMF – with a drop of 18% of GDP – does not surprise the population, confronted daily with the crisis.
"Nothing surprises me Everyday things go up," Marcos Salazar told AFP while eating a hamburger that cost a minimum wage.
A 31-year-old teacher survives with three jobs and remittances abroad.
It is estimated that 1.6 million Venezuelans have emigrated since 2016 because of the crisis which, according to the country's leading universities, has increased poverty to 87% in 2017
The IMF estimates that this exodus will intensify further
– Deep reforms, single exit –
According to Opec, the production of the national oil company, almost the only source of foreign exchange , rose from 3.2 million barrels per day (MBB) in 2008 to 1.5 million barrels per day in June of this year, without being able to benefit from the recovery of prices on the international market.
Reduction will continue to 1.3 mbj at the end of according to the consultant Ecobadítica, highlighting a deficit that experts estimate at 20% of GDP.
"Only hyperinflation comes with far-reaching economic reforms." Henkel Garcia, director of the bureau of economic studies, told AFP that the IMF had predicted that the socialist government of Zimbabwe Nicolás Maduro will continue to cover the deficit with monetary financing, which will further increase inflation.
The monetary base has been multiplied by 250 over the last two years, according to the Central Bank.
García says that In addition to curbing this expansion, it is necessary to save the industry – which works at 30% of its capacity – and to dismantle price control and the exchange rate, which gives the company an economic edge. State a Currency Monopoly.] It is also crucial to find financing, the US sanctions against Venezuela and PDVSA being in default, in the event of partial default of payment of debt securities.
For econometrics , you have to inject between $ 20 billion and $ 30 billion a year for two or three years.
However, "no executive interest is contemplated to alter economic policy" except for some monetary easing,
Maduro, whose re-election on May 20 was not recognized in much of the international community, has a challenge as a tightrope player so as not to lose
These demonstrations, however, are isolated and have the direction of the opposition, for the moment disjoined and with several
"Social protest will continue to increase," said political badyst Micha at AFP. and at the same time, and with limited resources, the government has to respond to the demands of a government coalition that Ecobadítica believes is "multiple income collection groups".
"It is only likely to worsen the crisis generates the pressures needed to change the balance" of this alliance, or even "causes its replacement", warns Ecobadítica, which provides for structural changes in the beginning of 2019.
For political scientist Miguel Martínez Meucci, "the main threat to Maduro remains the line of armed forces," whose high command, with great political and economic power, swears allegiance to him.
" Although a social conflict may favor this, the regime works day and night to quell the two things, "he told AFP
Chavism leaders raised their voices in recent days to call to economic change
"We have 19 years of revolution, we are responsible for good and bad," said Freddy Bernal, Maduro's influential collaborator, acknowledging that "governance has been lost. "
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