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US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018. Data was released Friday (27), the first estimate by the Commerce Department the United States. .
This is the best performance since the third quarter of 2014. The figures, however, were in line with economists' projections.
Growth in the quarter is due to higher consumption and faster soybean shipments to China before the introduction of commercial tariffs in early July.
Americans bought durable goods (+ 9.3%), especially automobiles. Another key factor for the quarter's figures was exports, which rose 9.3%, their highest level in five years, says France Presse.
The Commerce Department's report states "an acceleration of exports of food, beverages, feed, and especially soy." Exports contributed with a growth of 1.12 percent, its maximum contribution in five years.
The United States uses a methodology different from that used by most countries for GDP diffusion. In Brazil, for example, the IBGE recorded quarterly growth compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same period of the previous year, and not the annualized rate
Compared to the second quarter of 2017 , the US economy rose 2.8%. Compared to the previous quarter, second-quarter GDP increased 1.01%.
In an interview with the White House on Friday, US President Donald Trump celebrated the numbers and said they were "very durable." For him, one of the biggest victories of the magazine was the fall of the country's trade deficit of more than 50 billion dollars.
"Every point [a mais no PIB] means about $ 3 trillion and 10 million jobs.
He added that if economic growth continues at this rate, the United States "will double in size 10 years faster" than in the administrations of Presidents Bush and Obama
. Earlier in the week, Trump posted on his private Twitter account that the United States has "the best financial figures on the planet."
Trump is betting that US growth will accelerate under its economic policies, which include "As trade deals come one by one, we will increase much more," said Trump, seeking to show that his economic policies are working .
Analysts warn, however, that the rate of growth from April to June is unsustainable because it is due to temporary factors.
Moody's forecast growth of 3% for the year ended in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. However, by 2020, "The second quarter was strong, but it was offset by tax cuts and increased government investments, "said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
In any case, estimates indicate that the rest of the year is likely to grow significantly, but at a slower pace, around 3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts an increase of 2.9% in US GDP in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019.
The main question that arises is the sustainability of long-term Trump. Moody's forecast a growth of only 0.9% for the US economy in 2020.
For the World Trade Organization (WTO), the consequences of tariffs applied by the economic powers are not yet visible, but will have devastating effects on the global economy. The WTO has released a report this week showing that trade restraint measures are on the rise and fears that the negative effects of this new "eye for eye" policy will slow down the economy.
The US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in 2017, according to revised figures also released Friday. On the other hand, the savings level of Americans has increased, thanks to a revenue stream that had not been recorded last year.
GDP growth in 2017 was 2.2%, below the 2.3% previously disclosed, with minor changes in previous years.
The US government examines the country's GDP every year for the last three years. But every five years, it makes a "more comprehensive" review, which looks at GDP statistics since 1929, when the measure was launched.
The biggest change in the revision is taxpayer income – the profit reported to the IRS – was revised based on new data. The adjustments contributed to the increase in revenues of $ 401.9 billion, or 2.4% by 2017, and also by 2016 and 2015.
These changes were sufficient to significantly increase the US savings rate to 6.7% in 2017.
The study showed that, despite all the changes, the current economic recovery that began in June 2009 is still the slower than post-Second World War period
The average annual growth rate during this expansion was 2.2%, unchanged from previous estimates.
The economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.9% during the previous expansion, which lasted from the fourth quarter of 2001 through the fourth quarter of 2007. This represented a slight increase over at the previous estimate of annual growth of 2, 8%.
