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While he counts their corpses and watches with apprehension the apparent agony of Nicolás Maduro 's government, Venezuela is trying to see his political future under the leadership of a block of people. opposition reunited by few elements, besides the anti-Chavez sentiment.
The socio-economic environment, internally, and the regional economic situation, on the outside, elected an unlikely leader – the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, 35 years old for what could be the greatest triumph of opposition in two decades. Guaidó, who proclaims himself "interim president" of the republic, however already arouses the mistrust of the other opponents.
"The only ones who still do not recognize Guaidó are Bolivia, Nicaragua and Capriles", provoked the satirical publication El Chigüire Bipolar, mocking Henrique Capriles – presidential candidate defeated by Hugo Chávez in 2012, and Maduro in 2013 – by the supposed hesitation to support the current opposition strategy.
Founder of the party First Justice and aspiring to the presidency, Capriles declared, shortly after the publication of the newspaper Chigüire, an "unequivocal support" for Guaido.
In addition to Capriles, Leopoldo López (Popular Will, even the Guaidó party) and María Corina Machado (Come Venezuela) were appointed to lead the unified opposition against Chavismo.
Since 2008, López has been accused by the Venezuelan government of administrative and political crimes that prevent him from participating in elections and is currently under house arrest.
Corina Machado was mandated to sit in the National Assembly, then to a majority of Chavez, arrested in 2014. The three organizations are frequently mentioned by international human rights organizations and by foreign governments as victims the political persecution of Chavismo and potential candidates for succession. from Maduro.
"It is not always who puts the table that makes the meal", explains a Latin American diplomat with the fact of the political situation in Venezuela.
"According to the evaluation of the most traditional parties of the Table of Democratic Unity (MUD), the sudden rise of Guaidó could create a" lost generation "of political frameworks stemming from the coup d'etat. State failed against Chavez, April 2002. The idea of this group of opponents is to put pressure on a possible transitional government so that elections can be organized as soon as possible, leaving the administration legitimized by the ballot box recovery plan of the country's torn economy and chief president – to consolidate itself as a hero who toppled his chavismo. "
The insatiable appetite of political groups for power – and by consequently for the control of the valves of the largest oil reserves of the world – is at the origin of the fracture of Venezuelan society between Chavistas and anti-Chávez.
The oil crisis of the early 1970s enriched the country's political elite, but the resulting drop in commodity prices increased the number of unfortunates in geometric progression.
Similarly, social relief in the early years of Chavismo became a source of death due to product shortages, hyperinflation, unemployment and 700,000 refugee candidates in neighboring countries, particularly in Brazil . And the owners of power have also begun to provide more for their needs in the barracks than at the polls, which is why Maduro is considered by many in Venezuela or elsewhere as a usurper.
In other words, the two parties of the economic elite before Chavez and the current Bolivarian oligarchy – the so-called "boliburguesia" – are repudiated by the population. Thus, both parties benefit from wearing Guaidó.
The young leader born in La Guaira, in the suburbs of Caracas, is accused behind the scenes of political groups that had hegemony in the pre-Chavez era of being "at the service from the left "and" to play Maduro "while retaining from the process of transition the characters more engaged in the fight against the Bolivarian government.
And it is by the same path, that of the alleged excessive moderation and compadrio with Chavismo figures, that the authorities of the current government also seek to discredit it. This effort corresponds to the intention of Diosdado Cabello – one of the main pillars of the Chavismo hard line – to make public the terms of a secret meeting that would have been maintained with Guaidó.
On social networks and news comment boxes on the Venezuelan crisis, it is not uncommon for Guaidó to be labeled a "mandate" of the "Chavez Left". Many blogs on the Internet, some of them related to the Maduro government, point out that the Party of the People's Will, the Guaidó, is affiliated with the Socialist International, so it is "leftist".
For the Brazilian to have an idea of what this means, it is the same status as the PSDB has already sought in the entity that brings together political badociations from several countries engaged in democratic socialism , social democracy and workers' movements.
"The US $ 20 million the United States has offered us as humanitarian aid is not enough for breakfast," Henry Ramos Allup (AD) on Twitter said, backstage the position of the president of the National Assembly – by which Guaidó claims to have the right to take over the presidency of the Republic.
Ramos Allup presided over the Parliament before the Chavismo emptied AN's powers and transferred them to a constituent badembly whose formation was boycotted by opponents.
This message was interpreted by many as a sign of dissatisfaction with Guaidó's strategy – based on the offer of amnesty to the military that would abandon support for Chavism and the recognition of A "transitional government" by the international community.
The oil crisis of the early 1970s enriched the country's political elite, but increased the number of unfortunates with geometric progression. The Greater Caracas region has grown with the mbad migration of Venezuelans in search of work and has begun to concentrate, dispersed along its mountain slopes, on a third of Venezuela's population.
Political stability is based on an agreement between the two largest parties – Democratic Action (center-left) and Copei (Christian Democrat). According to the so-called Punto Fijo pact, the two political forces exercised alternating power and controlled the popular movements that could provoke social unrest – among nearly 60% of the living population in extreme poverty, according to 1988 data from the Central University of Venezuela.
The immobilization of Punto Fijo was definitively broken in 1989, when the international oil price was low and the protests against the austerity measures turned into looting and the government of Carlos Andrés Pérez (AD) ordered the armed forces to suppress the government. movement, causing more than 300 deaths – an official issue has never been published.
The episode, known as "caracaço", deepens the repulsion of the political elite. The revolt defiled the barracks and Lt. Col. Hugo Chávez led a coup attempt against Andres Perez in 1992. The movement failed and Chavez was arrested, but his rhetoric of rebellion against the political system was gaining popularity and discredits the traditional parties.
Anistiado, the armed forces arrive at the presidency by voting six years later, after winning in the second round of the presidential an ex-miss universe, also backed by an anti-establishment party. AD and Copei were broken.
Cultivating the contempt of politicians at the time of Punto Fijo, Chávez emerged victorious from his coup attempt in 2002 and a phrase that almost wiped out the government. oil industry – the only productive activity of the economy.
Faced with the growing international demand for oil, the quotation was close to $ 100 a barrel, the country's revenues increased and the social situation stabilized. But new commodity price declines have revealed a new political elite, this time linked to Chavism, and have made popular aversion against the central government recruiter.
Without the charisma or know-how of Chavez – who died of cancer in 2013 – Maduro became the target of popular criticism and revolt.
The Table of Democratic Unity (MUD) brought together the opposition parties in Chavez – de AD and Copei at Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) of Center Left and Pátria Para Todos (PPT) – in 2006, although it was officially founded 2008.
But their forums have always been marked by deep divergences, desertions and defections.
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