GDP forecast, shipwreck construction and remain at 2009 level

Considered as the most important. one of the sectors that would give impetus to the economy this year, civil construction disappointed. The sector has decreased by 20.5% over the last four years, has closed 1.2 million jobs nationwide and remains at the same level as in 2009, where it dropped after the crisis. The performance is worse than at the beginning of the "Lost Decade", where construction dropped 22.5% between 1981 and 1984.

By the end of last year, material consumption Industry leaders began to react, saying that there could be a recovery in 2018, which would boost the country's economy. "It was a false alarm.The beginning of this year has already been weaker," says Bráulio Borges, chief economist of LCA Consultores

.The growth forecasts of the sector are among the most modified in the past. In LCA, for example, while the country's GDP estimate has been reduced by 0.8 percentage points, the construction estimate has been revised by 2.8 percentage points. the firm forecast an advance of 2.6%, now down 0.23 %.The Brazilian Institute of Economy (Ibre), FGV, expects the sector to grow 0.5% – the initial forecast was an increase of 2%

"We continue with a growth expectation, but we have looked at the percentage. The slowness of the economy and political uncertainties have led us to change the projection, "says Ana Castelo, coordinator of construction projects of the Ibre.

Depends on long-term investments, which in turn require business and consumer confidence, construction has also been affected by the truck's shutdown. "It's one of the most affected sectors because the strike has affected confidence and investment decisions," adds Sergio Vale, MB Associados' chief economist.

Civil construction is the sector that has suffered the most from the recession. who has the most trouble leaving him behind, say the economists. There was an excess of investments before the crisis which, in the real estate sector, resulted in immobile properties. "It takes time to digest the excess," says Ana Castelo, of Ibre, who also recalls that public works stagnate, stopping the economic recovery.

The difference in construction compared to other sectors is that it is one of the activities that require the most manpower. A recovery in the region would stimulate the labor market and, consequently, the economy.

Bráulio Borges of the LCA says that in order for the country's GDP to outperform the current – the market estimates a maximum of 1.53% this year – construction needs to grow at a similar pace. "The ideal is to be even more, since the basis of comparison is very low," he says. The information comes from the journal O Estado de S. Paulo