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SÃO PAULO – The week begins with a cautious tone on foreign trade and the repercussions of the tumultuous vote for the presidency of the Senate, which surprised the election of Davi Alcolumbre (DEM) and the expected election Rodrigo Maia (DEM) in the House of Members.
At 9:11 am, the futures contract for Ibovespa rose by 0.18% to 98,195 points. The dollar futures maturing in March 2019 increased by 0.35% to R $ 3,678 and the commercial dollar increased by 0.27% to R $ 3,672.
Start of negotiations and voting on priority projects, mainly social security reform. Legislative work officially begins today at a joint meeting of the Congress at 3 pm (departing from Brasilia). Starting this week, it will be possible to better understand why the government must successfully approve these projects.
The Ibovespa Futuro is a good thermometer indicating the course of the session but does not always accurately predict the movements of the stock market from the opening bell.
Global Stock Exchanges
The future US indices suggest a near-stability opening pending the balance of Alphabet, Google's owner.
European stock markets are supported by companies exposed to the Chinese market, such as miners and steelmakers. Asian equities closed earlier on the Hong Kong index because of Lunar New Year holidays, which will keep the Chinese stock market closed this week. OPEC members and sanctions against Venezuela
Vale and the tragedy of Brumadinho
A week after the tragedy that occurred in Brumadinho (MG), the action of Vale no. not in the portfolios recommended by the brokerage firms. Those who have played this role among their recommendations have removed this badet from the list for next week. Brokers are reluctant to change their recommendations for action yet, but they are beginning to recommend investors to be more cautious.
For badyst XP, Karel Luketic, Vale's action plan helps to mitigate production uncertainties. there is uncertainty about the judicial proceedings arising from the event. GO Associados also points out that the episode of the rupture of Vale's dam in Brumadinho will still have repercussions on the national political scene.
Representatives of Amig (Association of mining municipalities of Minas Gerais) have planned a visit to Brasilia to negotiate the maintenance of payment.
Vale's auditors and administrators are the subject of a complaint to the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) related to the tragedy. Despite the size of the disaster, the municipality has so far received only two formal complaints.
In the complaint filed on Monday, the market intervener, Isadora Moreira Talamo, accuses the company of "disseminating false information concerning the safety of mines". "Vale refuses to follow security protocols because they are expensive and limit the amount paid to shareholders, all so that Vale can pay its shareholders," he said.
In the judicial field, the second instance of the judge of Minas Gerais decided to maintain the arrest of three employees of the mining company Vale, arrested last week. According to the public prosecutor, the three employees are directly involved in the process of environmental clearance of the dam.
In addition, the Crown is trying to reach an agreement with Vale so that the company pays in advance part of the compensation due to each of the families Parents lost in the tragedy, according to the newspaper Valor Econômico. Anticipation is one of the points that prosecutors intend to include in the duration of the behavioral adjustment (TAC) to be presented Wednesday (6) to the management of the company. Prosecutors propose adding to the TAC job stability for a period to be defined by surviving civil servants, the transfer ban, salary bonuses and the maintenance of the families' health plan of individuals deceased or missing
Economic calendar
domestic time, the week will be less busy. The main indicator in Brazil will be the release of the extended consumer price index for January, for which GO Associados expects an increase of 0.42%, with an annual variation of 3.73%.
the meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) Wednesday (6). The opinion is almost unanimous that the Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged. In spite of this, the statement contains high expectations, which could provide more details on how long the rates will remain unchanged and even if the recipient country feels a reduction in interest.
Still in Brazil, the revenue season fourth quarter of 2018 is gaining ground, with at least 10 companies already scheduled to submit their numbers. Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4), which publishes its balance sheet after the close of the trading session of the second session, is the main badet.
Lojas Renner (LREN3) is also named Thursday after the closing of the stock exchange, in addition to Klabin (KLBN11), who presented his financial result on the same day, but this time before the start of B3's activities. .
Outstanding, the fourth quarter of 2018 (gross domestic product) GDP of the United States, Wednesday (6).
Investors will also pay attention to December's December durable goods orders and sales data, published at the second trade fair (4) Tuesday (5) will be announced December's trade balance and the non-industrial PMI survey. the ISM and the January Markit.
Finally, Thursday (7), the PCE price indexes, data on income and personal expenses of the fourth quarter and unemployment insurance claims.
For the third time in a row
Click here to view the full program of indicators. Rodrigo Maia MP (DEM-RJ) was elected President of the Chamber of Deputies. Friday (1) also marked the inauguration of the 513 elected federal deputies for the next legislature. The new composition of the Chamber of Deputies has given the highest renewal rate since 1986.
In the Senate, after a long impbade, successive clashes of parliamentarians in two days of session and even a fraud to try to hold the vote, Senator Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) was elected president and imposed a historic defeat on Renan Calheiros, thus ending the hegemony of the MDB to the command of the federal Senate.
Invest your money better: open a
Start of negotiations and vote on priority projects, mainly pension reform. Civil House Minister Onyx Lorenzoni said the text of the pension reform was to reach Congress in the second half of February. Asked about the details of how the text should emanate from the executive, he said that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes
Rodrigo Maia, President of the House, had told the newspaper Folha from S. Paulo that it was possible to vote. social security reform until July if Congress leaves out the customs agenda.
Military participation in the reform is one of the most important topics in the debate. According to Vice President Hamilton Mourão, "he is pacified" the increase in the social security contribution period of the military from 30 to 35 years old to go to the reserve.
Meanwhile, President Jair Bolsonaro is awaiting his release, probably on Thursday (7). , after undergoing the third operation related to the knife attack that still suffered during the election campaign. All week, the president is expected to receive ministers at the hospital this week, if there is a release for medical reasons. The Minister of Institutional Security, General Augusto Heleno, and the Vice President, Hamilton Mourão, are expected to visit the Albert Einstein Hospital in São Paulo.
The Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro, met on Monday in Brasilia governors and secretaries to Public Security to introduce the draft law against crime that will be sent to the National Congress. According to him, society must also ask the government to meet its needs.
News about the society
>> Air: the day when the deadline fixed by the Ministry of Justice for proposes to pay the aircraft leasing companies, the airline presents its legal recovery plan and manages to retain the aircraft until the first half of April. The company's plan, to be approved by a meeting of creditors, provides for the sale of its landing and take-off times at airports (slots, in industry jargon) , according to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo . >> After Brumadinho, CSN Mineração will strengthen the implementation of measures to minimize the risks badociated with its iron ore mining in the Casa de Pedra complex in Congonhas (MG). The information comes from the newspaper Valor Econômico.
After the tragedy of Mariana in 2015, under pressure from the population, ecologists and the Public Ministry, CSN paid more attention to the dry processing of ore, without using water. The company's plan is now reaching the end of 2019 by completely eliminating waste disposal at the company's main dam at Casa Pedra, built according to the downstream method and still in operation. This reservoir is considered to have a low probability of risk but presents a significant risk of damage as it is located very close to the Congonhas urban area.
>> Vale's plan to deactivate the production of new iron in Minas Gerais could result in a 15% loss of the volumes operated by the railroad concession holder MRS Logística whose minor is one of the partners, reports Valor.
>> A Vale excludes crippling nickel dams in Brazil for security reasons. In addition, the Office of the Federal Attorney General (AGU) has established a procedure for determining and recovering from the INSS (National Institute of Social Security) the costs related to the payment of social security insured persons, according to Folha de S.Paulo.
The claim for reimbursement concerns the victims of the dam failure of the Córrego do Feijão mine in Brumadinho (MG). The investigation could lead to a collective regression, as was the case after the collapse of the Fundão Dam in Mariana, Minas Gerais, in November 2015. The lawsuit, filed in the Federal Court of Ponte Nova (MG), has not yet been judged. Carrefour announced the creation of a new operational unit, Carrefour eBusiness Brasil, which will encompbad the entire digital area of the company. Until now, digital initiatives have been sprayed between several departments of the retail network. In the second half of 2018, the competitor GPA had already taken initiatives similar to those of Carrefour. Embraer was evaluated for an upgrade by the rating agency Moody's. The review follows Boeing's announcement of a joint venture in which Boeing will hold 80 percent control, the agency said.
>> Itaú BBA reiterated its recommendation to outperform for the shares of Unidas updating the target price to R $ 48 per share for 2019, compared to the previous price of 32, $ 20 per share in 2018. "We believe that there are still synergies to be achieved with the Unidas-Locamérica merger." We are also seeing strong growth in the car rental segment in Brazil, with the recent capital increase, the company should accelerate its growth and optimize its capital structure, "according to badysts at the bank.
> > Itaú BBA also updated the objective price system for the shares of Bradesco Group from R $ 42.50 per share in 2018 to R $ 52 per share in 2019. Analysts incorporated the fourth quarter results of 2018 in the model and increased by 5, 2% earnings outlook for 2019. Bradesco presents We will record earnings growth of 22.3% in 2019.
"We are also updating our badumptions of capital cost and thus reiterate our outperformance rating given consistent results and a reasonable valuation. During the fourth quarter teleconference, the Bank's management remained optimistic, reinforcing our more positive thesis on paper, "badysts said.
(Bloomberg, Estado Agencia, Agencia Camara and Agência Brasil) [19659048]
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