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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday (16) maintained its predictions on the growth of the global economy this year at 3.9%, but warned against the effects of a war trade between the United States and China
In the update of economic forecasts made in April, the financial entity has revised downward anticipation on the performance of the economy of Latin America, from 2.0% to 1.6%, a decrease of 0.4 point. 19659002] The Fund pointed out that this reduced the reflection of the need for adjustments in Argentina, the scenario of political uncertainties in Brazil and the unresolved trade tensions between Mexico and the United States.
In the case of Brazil, he points out that the prospects "
" The economy is below its potential, its high and high public debt and, more importantly, the medium growth prospects term remain tasteless, "notes the IMF.
By 2018, the IMF expects that p (19659002) Argentina was shaken by a severe financial crisis in the first half this year that led the government to increase its GDP growth by 1.8% However, the country continues to have high inflation and a basic interest rate of 40% – l & # 39; one of the highest in the world.
In the case of Mexico, the IMF has maintained its growth forecast unchanged from April, although it has reduced the forecast for 2019 from 3% to 2.7%
The agency pointed out that Venezuela is in a state of "economic collapse", with hyperinflation that has been in evidence since the middle of the last century.
"It is very difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of the break in the Venezuelan economy," said IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld.
The Fund is already forecasting a doubling of numbers in the coming years and "we have increased our badessment of the degree of withdrawal," the press reported.
In addition, "we are witnessing a hyperinflation rivaled only by Zimbabwe and the great historical hyperinflation of the interwar period".
The body however did not disclose data from the country whose economy is going through two years of vacation. The projection for the world's two largest economies – the United States and China – remained unchanged for this year, despite the trade war they are facing.
For the IMF, growth in developed countries will be 2.4% (-0.1 percentage point) in 2018, with the United States leading the way (+ 2.9%), due to Impulse of the tax reform implemented in the end of 2017.
The Fund also reduced the planned expansion for the euro area (-0.2 point, 2.2%), due to lower forecasts for Germany (-0.3 points, 2.2%), France (-0.3 points, 1.8%) and Italy (-0.3 points, 1 , 2%).
The IMF has also not changed its expectations of growth in the global economy until 2019, when world GDP is also expected to grow by 3.9%.
"The risk that current trade tensions will intensify and have a negative impact on confidence and investment is the biggest threat to global growth in the short term," Obstfeld said.
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