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Institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank have recently reduced their forecasts for growth in the global economy.
In recent months, more and more signs of concern for the global economy have emerged: badysts point to increasing risks of crisis on the horizon and international organizations have reduced their global growth projections.
In January, the IMF revised its global growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.5% this year and from 3.7% to 3.6% in 2020. The World Bank has also recalibrated its estimates of Economic Growth. year-on-year, reaching 2.9% this year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the projection last June
The mood of anxiety was visible in Davos, Switzerland, where political leaders and business leaders met last month for the Economic Forum. World A recent study by the Conference Board research group found that the possibility of a global recession was the main concern of the more than 800 CEOs consulted in various countries.
In Davos, Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, warned that after two years of strong expansion, the world economy was growing slower.
But is the world really heading towards a major economic crisis? than expected and the risks increase.
"Does this mean that there is a global recession around the corner? No. But the risk of a more pronounced slowdown in global growth has certainly increased."
In the badessment of the Executive Director of Global Economy consulting firm Markit, IHS, Markit Sara Johnson, the danger of global decline has increased, but the likelihood of a recession in 2019 remains low.
"We consider that the recent slowdown in growth is part of the normal economic cycle: Europe is growing faster than its long-term trend," Johnson told BBC News Brazil.
She points out that in the United States the benefits of tax cuts at the end of 2017 are still fueling growth, and the expansion of the US economy is one of the factors preventing a global recession short term.
The world's largest economy is recording its second round of continued expansion, which began in June 2009, but badysts point to the risks.
"But, of course, every expansion ends one day."
Slowdown in the United States
in the face of rising interest rates, trade tensions, particularly with China, recent turmoil in the financial markets and the economic impact of record partial closure of the federal government.
Tax cuts helped revive the US economy in 2018, with growth of 2.9%, but the impact of the measure tends to weaken gradually. The IMF forecasts an increase of 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% the following year, a forecast unchanged since October.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the key rate four times last year. , the last of them in December, 0.25 percentage points, for the interval between 2.25% and 2.50%. High interest rates help control inflation, but they affect economic growth by encouraging savings and reducing consumption and investment in production.
President Donald Trump criticized recent increases, which would be detrimental to the country's economy. eventually generated the worry of undue influence of the US leader, threatening the independence of the Fed, that receives responsibility for monetary policy responsibility.
On the 30th, the Fed decides to maintain the current interest level and indicates that it does not anticipate any further increase. US inflation remains close to the 2% target a year and the labor market, another indicator of economic health, remains solid with 2.6 million jobs created in 2018 and a rate unemployment rate of 3.9%.
"One way to interpret (the double option) is that they are worried about raising interest rates too much and causing a recession," economist Kathryn Dominguez, professor of economics and from public policy to the university. from 1965 to Michigan and a researcher at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Trade tensions between the United States and China have also highlighted the trade tensions between the United States and China, the rise in tariffs affecting the rest of the world and having already led to a revision to the drop. in previous IMF forecasts for the global economy published in October.
If the two countries do not resolve the dispute, tariffs already imposed by the United States on a range of Chinese products could rise from 10% to 25%, causing further retaliation by China. In addition to fighting with China, the US government is also facing tensions with several other trading partners, imposing tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum.
China gives alarm signals
The performance of the Chinese economy is also good. cause for concern. In January, China had announced a 6.6% growth in 2018, its lowest rate since 1990. IMF forecasts are still down 6.2% this year and by 2020.
"I hope China continues to grow at a steady pace this year, with some problems, including high debt, overcapacity in some heavy industries and real estate markets," Johnson said.
"The industrial sector is clearly facing difficulties right now."
The Chinese government is planning stimulus measures, including tax cuts and investments in infrastructure. "It will be crucial," said Dominguez.
"China responds to a large extent to the decision (of international organizations) to reduce global growth projections, and it is an important part of global growth."
The European economy is also facing risks that could affect it. , with the difficulties of accepting the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (the Brexit) and the slowdown of the euro zone, whose growth was revised by the IMF this year to 1.6 %, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point relationship with the October projection.
Germany is still adapting to the new rules on pollutant emissions for cars that have affected the industry. France has been raging in street protests for more than two months. And in Italy, "concerns about sovereign and financial risks have had an impact on domestic demand," the IMF said.
Other Risks
Problems in the US, China and Europe often affect emerging markets such as Brazil, but Mr. Dominguez believes that it is too early to calculate the impact possible a more pronounced slowdown.
In the case of Brazil, Johnson notes that it is important to see what will happen to reforms, such as the pension scheme.
The IMF forecasts a 2.5% growth of the Brazilian economy this year, 0.1 percentage point more than the October forecast and similar to the Central Bank Focus report based on an estimate of 2.53%, based on a weekly survey of consultants and financial institutions. The IMF forecasts are 2.2% in 2020, against 2.6% in the Focus.
Analysts also cite other concerns for the global economy, such as the high level of global debt and more polarized politics. country. But Dominguez says that the reductions in the global growth prospects of major international organizations are still modest.
"It is not impossible that many of these potential negative shocks will accumulate and lead to a more pronounced slowdown than currently expected.There is certainly no consensus today for this to happen. will occur in 2019. "
The economist recalls that 2018, and especially 2017, have been very good years for the global economy. "Part of what we're seeing is just a slowdown over two very good years," says Dominguez.
"We may get back to normal and normal is slower than in recent years, say we are entering a global recession."
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