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After facing one of the worst recessions in its history, the Brazilian economy is following slow stages and is expected to regain in 2020 the level of GDP (gross domestic product) only in 2014, when the last crisis began,
"The scenario is very worrying: after going through one of the most severe recessions in our history, we still only recover a portion of the" After " five quarters since the end of the recession, Brazil has grown by only 2.7% in cumulative terms, that is, the country has not grown in terms of growth. ", explains Silvia Matos, general coordinator of the study."
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According to the Ibre / FGV, the current recovery is very slow compared to other periods of long recessions, with an increase of 5.5% to return to the level before the crisis. the beginning of a 1980s, when the country decreased by 8.5% between 1981 and 1983, and the crisis of the early 1990s, where the contraction was 7.7% between 1989 and 1992. [19659002] "The current average growth is at 0.5% of GDP per quarter, and if this pace is maintained, it will take another 11 quarters to reach the pre-crisis level, which is truly unprecedented in the past. 39, history of Brazil.
Forecast to grow by 1.7% this year
Ibre / FGV reduced forecasts of GDP growth in this year of 1 In addition to uncertainties about maintaining the pace of recovery economic, the institution cited the impact of the truckers strike, the deterioration of the international scenario and the more fragile confidence of businessmen and consumers, which tends to
"Our forecast is to maintain this pace (growth of only 0.5% per quarter) for the second half of the year e. However, we can not rule out further downward revisions, "researchers Silvia Matos and Luana Miranda said in the study.
Entrepreneurs and less confident consumers
According to the Ibre / FGV study, the truck drivers' strike has intensified since the month of April.
"With the strike, all factors that negatively influenced confidence increased, especially the perception of slowness Aloisio Campelo Jr. and Viviane Seda Bittencourt
The Business Confidence Index (ICE) fell by 2.1% and the consumer confidence index fell by 5%., 5%, according to the Ibr / FGV Among companies, the main factors cited were the slowness of the business. economy, political uncertainties and lack of confidence in the government [19659002] Among the consumers, in addition to these factors, labor market difficulties and the deterioration of the external scenario, in particular, the rise of the dollar stand out
For researchers, confidence may rise slightly in July with the end of the effects of the truckers' strike on the economy, but they are unlikely to guess whether this improvement will persist over the next decade.second half of the year or if confidence will return to the downward trend observed since April.
"The combination of the determinants of trust signals a very low probability that these ratios
Electoral uncertainty may affect exchange rates and interest
Another area of concern for the l […] Ibre / FGV is the electoral scenario, which remains very uncertain.If a candidate is elected who does not follow the program of reforms necessary to restore the balanced budget, there will be risks for economic growth and control of the economy. Inflation, says the entity.
"It is not at all despicable the electoral campaign, concrete signs of parry with heterodox and populist initiatives, or a mere disregard for measures capable of to effectively contain the explosive trajectory of public debt, "says José Júlio Senna, researcher at the Ibre / FGV
. If the political conditions that are the most unfavorable to the economy materialize, the country is likely to suffer from "high risk and further currency depreciation, with the possibility of deflating expectations and increasing the projections for the future. inflation, leading to a redefinition of the policy of interests ".
After the hiccups, inflation should normalize
Brazil recorded in June inflation (IPCA) of 1.26%, the highest rate of the month since the beginning of the real plan. The effects of the truckers strike, the exchange rate devaluation, the increase in administered prices (like the light bill) and the typical seasonal effects of this time of year
"The combination of these effects have caused inflation Despite the price shock in June, its effects are not permanent and inflation is expected to fall again, in particular due to the slow recovery in economic activity and economic growth. well-entrenched expectations, "said researchers Salomão Quadros and André Braz
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