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SÃO PAULO – The decision of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) this Wednesday (6) should cause little emotion, maintaining the basic interest rate at 6.50 % per year, but the release can bring important – and positive – information to the Brazilian stock market investor.
Much of the market is working with the interest rate maintenance scenario this year, as reported in the latest Focus, where estimates were reduced from 7% to 6.5% by the end of 2019.
On Tuesday (5), Legacy Capital told Bloomberg that the Selic could lose 1 percentage point if the pension reform is approved. "We believe that this characterization can take place at Copom meetings in March or May, depending on the pace of the Committee on Economic Performance and the behavior of inflation and economic activity", said the fund manager.
"In addition to Legacy, at least five other managers are also forecasting Selic below 6.5% a year," said Rico Corretora's badysts, in a report sent to customers. This perspective opens an excellent window of opportunity for equity investments.
To understand this importance, one must understand a cascading effect of future interests. For starters, the price of a stock reflects the forecast of a company's future cash flows and these flows are discounted to current value by means of an "discount rate" .
This rate in turn follows the expectations of society. Selic and, if the interest rate forecast for the future falls, this discount rate will be lower. At a lower rate, the present value of these future cash flows will be higher. In other words, the slightest interest in the front raises the present value of the stock
In addition to the effects on the numbers, the reason interest rates fall is also important. It should be remembered that at another time in the country, interest rates were reduced "by force" and resulted in inflation exceeding 10%.
"If we are witnessing the progress of the government's structural reforms (it is not only social welfare, even if it is the most important), we can live a unique moment in our history of recovery. economic growth, controlled inflation (that our GDP increases without accelerating prices) and that the trajectory of the deficit increases (in the best of worlds, to become even down), "said badysts Rico.
This means that even though the Brazilian economy the central bank may not need to raise interest rates, leaving a more favorable scenario for companies to accept credit for new ones. investments and that the population consumes more. Invest your money better today and ensure a smooth retirement: open a free investment account on XP.
"Given the speech and the stance adopted by the current government, we see many reasons to take the risk of believing in Brazil (read to buy stocks), even if it is not possible. it's only a small part of the wallet, "Rico said.
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