Demand for workers in the export industries is shaking up the labor market :: Investor.bg

<img src = "https://www.investor.bg/images/photos/0264/0000264083-article3.jpg" alt = "In May, registered unemployment continued to fall to 6.1%, which was the lowest value since the end of 2008

This is written in the Monthly Review "The Economy of Bulgaria" by the Ministry of Finance

The badysis shows that consumer confidence and the business climate indicator improve in May, supported by better expectations. According to short-term business statistics at the beginning of the second quarter, industrial production and sales as well as the number of In the retail business accelerate and production returns to growth

More jobs in industry and services

The number of workers increased 1.2% yoy in the first quarter, supported by a higher demand for labor in the United States. Industry and services. Real productivity growth reached 2.3% on an annual basis over the period, while compensation per employee increased by 8.5%

Employment growth in the United States increased by 10%. industry has accelerated to 2.2%, with export activities contributing mainly to this, despite the marked slowdown in the growth of industrial production and exports compared with the previous year

Under the influence of the recovery of economic activity in the construction observed since 2017, the one of those used in the first articles and the month of 2018 marked one of the fastest growing growth rates – in the 4.1%, the experts noted the Department of Finance ..

According to them, the growth of employment in the service sector by 2.6% is comparable to the average of 39%. industry, the highest in value-added activities such as creative information and dissemination (7.4%). , and relatively lower in sectors focused mainly on intermediate and lower skills, such as commerce, transportation and the hotel and restaurant industry (3.5%)

The Ministry of Finance notes that in the first quarter of 2018, the number of people with basic and lower education increases faster than in the previous year and this has a reciprocal effect on the largest decrease in the number of unemployed and discouraged in the lower levels of education

The increased demand for labor in industry and services manages to neutralize the negative dynamics of agriculture. Remains outstanding in the first quarter of last year, according to MF experts

They recall that unlike 2017, when agriculture has had a major impact on the dynamics of employment in the country During the first three months of this year, the number of employees in agriculture decreased by 5.1%, which corresponds to data on the decrease in value added in the sector

In May, registered unemployment continues to decline%, which was the lowest value of the indicator since the end of 2008.

Net income and the number of unemployed

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, flows of both incoming and outgoing unemployed remain around their April level and determine the monthly decline of the unemployed with 10.5 thousand to 200.5 thousand

However, the total number of those entering work has decreased slightly from 1.4% compared to April to 21.7 thousand people, which is common and related to vacations already used, announced before the beginning of the active summer season, comments from the Ministry of Finance

The primary labor market continues to be the largest Share of 71% of newcomers in May, but more than doubled last month to 1900

In the context of increased demand for manpower, compensation per employee increases by 8.5 % per annum in the first quarter of 2018, with contributions from wages and social security contributions

The highest nominal growth of the indicator was reported in the industry (12.4%) and construction (11.6%)%). The growth rate of income in the services sector remained lower (7%), mainly due to the slowdown in trade, transport and hotel and restaurant services (2.2%)

. real growth of labor productivity in the first quarter this year reached 2.3% on an annual basis, accelerating compared to the fourth quarter of 2017 (0.7%), and remained close to that of the same period of the previous year (2.4%)

employed in agriculture, with a slight decrease in value added, the growth avya labor productivity in the sector to 5 , 1%. In contrast, the industry and services that have contributed significantly to the maintenance of employment growth are lower than the average economic growth of labor productivity

The industry has experienced a slowdown of 0.3% due to a lower dynamic in the industry, while construction progressed in positive territory with a growth of 5%, supported by a real increase in newly created value added

Productivity growth in the services sector slowed to 1.3%, with all sector activities contributing to the reported dynamics. In the first quarter of 2018, some labor cost pressures were weakened compared to the second half of 2017 due to the acceleration in labor productivity

. Unit labor cost (GDP) growth is high at 2.6 The annual inflation rate (HICP) reached 2.3% in May, following the 39 Annualized rate of change (HICP) increase in prices of unprocessed food and energy products on an annual basis. Basic inflation accelerated to 2%, calculated at MF

Consumer prices in the country rose 0.4% in May compared with the previous month, with the highest positive contribution (0 , 28 percentage points). p.) have transportation fuels after increasing 4.3% from April
The dynamics can be explained by the rise in the price of crude oil during the last three months

International prices of Brent crude oil in euros

Prices fresh fruits and vegetables also contributed positively, with an increase of 2.7% and 1.3%. Tourism prices are on average higher by 0.1%, international holiday prices (5.8%) being offset by lower prices for holiday and holiday packages (3%) and accommodation ( 1.11%

The slight acceleration seen in the annual rate of appreciation of market services translates into a higher core inflation of 2%, compared to 1.9% in April

Decrease in Trade deficit

In March, the current account balance is negative at 89.6 million euros, the deficit dropping 70% on an annual basis. (6.4% on an annual basis) exceeds imports (0.7%), with a lower monthly trade deficit for the first time this year [19659004] More domestic sales

The turnover of industrial enterprises it's increased by 3.8% in April compared to the same month of the previous year, driven by sales of The main contribution to the 8.4% growth in the domestic market turnover is the production of food products, beverages and tobacco products

At the same time, sales for the foreign market decreased for a third consecutive month by 1.6% due to the unfavorable evolution of energy products

Industrial production accelerated to 0.7% in April compared to the same period last year, to 0.1% in March, the increase being due to the manufacture of vehicles and electrical equipment, while the unfavorable momentum in the manufacturing of metal products, without machinery and equipment, general limits

After the weak performance in March, the construction index recovered in April and rose 5% from April 2017. The building and civil engineering have all two contributed to growth, up 6.8% and 2.6% respectively

Retail sales growth accelerated to 5% from April 2017. Positive growth is supported by most sectors, such as retail drug, and orthopedic products had the largest increase of 8.9%. Trade in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods continued to decline, down 5.3%.

Decrease in Foreign Commitments

Gross external debt reached 62.3% of GDP forecasts and also reported an improvement over size at the end of March 2017, compared to 67, 6% in March 2017 and 66.1% at the end of December last year. External debt is negative (2.2% of projected GDP), which shows Bulgaria's net external credit position

Debt (including government-guaranteed debt) rose to BGN 24.4 billion (23.3% of projected GDP, compared with 27.3% of GDP a year earlier)

Domestic debt decreased by 6.3% of GDP in the first four months of 2017 , at 5.4% of GDP expected at the end of April 2018.

The ratio of external debt to GDP rose from 19.2% in April 2017 to 16%. State-guaranteed debt is 1.9% of GDP, or 1.8% of GDP a year earlier. Consumption accelerates

The growth rate of credit to the private sector continued to accelerate in April, reaching 6.6% on an annual basis, compared to 5.6% in the first quarter. end of the previous month. Household loans made a major positive contribution to change, with double-digit growth in consumer credit (14.4% on an annual basis) and faster than in March, while loans real estate for one year rose by 9.3%

At the same time, the item "Other loans" declined for a third consecutive month.

Credits to non-financial corporations increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, to 2.3% at the end of March, with a major contribution from overdraft and corporate loans Total new business loans in April rose 63.5% over the same month of the previous year

New term deposits in April reached 1.66 billion BGN, which represents an increase of 49.1% over annual base

The downward trend in bad and restructured loans is strong and represents an annual decline of 14.1%. Thus, their share of total loans to non-financial corporations and households fell to 12.5%.

Best Fiscal Signals

According to monthly reports on monetary performance, the budget surplus on the consolidated accounts a fiscal program for the first four months of 2018 rose to 1.3 billion levs (1.3% of projected GDP).

The positive result is the excess of revenue over national budget expenditure (1 5% of GDP) while a minimum deficit (0.2% of GDP) was achieved in EU funds, at the Ministry of Finance

At the end of April, total income and aid (Chart 18) amounted to BGN 13 billion, an increase of 7.9% compared to April 2017

The increase in tax and non-tax revenues 8.9% and 8.4% respectively, while payments for the same period decreased by 14.9%.

The highest contribution to total budget revenue growth was in social security and health insurance, at 14.2% on an annual basis, followed by direct tax revenues (growth of 14.9%). %) and indirect taxes (3,4%)

In the case of VAT revenues, excise duties and tariffs in the financial sector have reported an increase of 2.7%, 4.1% and 25.3% respectively.

Total government expenditure, including Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, increased by 11.8% to 11.7 billion levs

Contributions to growth in total expenditures

The highest contribution to their growth was due to the increase in payments for personnel (26.3% increase on an annual basis)

Social costs and scholarships (an increase of 6%) also have a significant contribution, due to the base effect of the increase in pensions from July 2017, as well as higher retirement rates% of investment costs

Current maintenance and interest expense is 10.7% lower, respectively, and 2.8% lower than April 2017

The reserve budget at the end of April reached 10.7 billion levs (10.3% of GDP project ) Incl. Funds of deposits of 9.9 billion BGN from the NBB and other banks and 0.8 billion BGN to receive EU funds for certified expenses, etc.