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The main index of the Bulgarian Stock Exchange will increase by 5% this year if the trade war, announced by the United States to all major economies, has a limited effect and that Western trade is still recovering at the end of the year year. This is said in the forecast investment intermediary "Elana Trading" for the second half of 2018.
Up to now, SOFIX, which tracks the most liquid shares in the market of Bulgarian capital, is down 7% since the beginning of 2018 At the beginning of the year, the index was 677, while it was closing at 629 points on Tuesday. In the middle of 2018, however, there was an event that launched the root of the exchange. Gradus AD's public offering not only showed that large funds could be raised on BSE, but this share also represents a new long-term investment opportunity with moderate risk. This offer will give way to the stock exchange of other large Bulgarian companies, according to Elana.
In general, the expectations of the intermediary are that in the second half of the economic environment of our country will continue to improve and the GDP will increase by 4%. and overall delays will not be felt in Bulgaria until the end of 2018. Construction will increase its importance for economic growth with the expansion of bank financing. Inflation will slow and labor costs will rise at a high rate since the previous year
The Global Economy
Two risk factors for the global economy: the acceleration of US interest rates and the trade war, that the US government has taken. However, Elana badysts believe that there is still potential for growth at a slow pace. Customs will not lead to a recession in China, but will slow global growth and this will be felt in the United States, and the Fed will be forced to slow the rise in interest rates.
Oil
State oil surpbaded $ 70 in the middle of the year, and Brent even reached $ 80 for a while. The reason was the limited performance of OPEC and Russia. However, the intention of producers to increase yield means that cents will gravitate around $ 70 in the summer. The expectations of Elana badysts are a relatively weak reaction to oil from the negative effects of Trump's war trade. OPEC will not let its price rise to more than $ 80 a barrel
Shares
In February, we witnessed the first major correction of Wall Street in the last two years. The partially primed recovery has been halted by the customs war between the EU and China, but so far there has been no serious slowdown. This means that investors are optimistic about the economy and markets and underestimate the risks. This risk of negative surprises could lead to a stronger decline in the indices if and when the effects on the economy materialize. Elana's projections indicate that there will be no recession, but low prices are now appropriate to buy stocks. A period of decline is expected in September-October, followed by growth by the end of the year. In addition, traditional indices perform well when there are interim elections in the United States. For the first six months, the euro has dropped three cents and a new trading range has been established between $ 1.15 and $ 1.25 for one euro. Expectations are that slower normalization of interest rates will bring down the price of the dollar by the end of 2018. Gold
The price of gold has dropped to the same pace as the dollar has risen – 8%. Both badets have evolved in parallel, which means that the price of gold will come back to $ 1350 per troy ounce when the dollar will be cheaper. But investors continue to believe in the economic recovery, which is manifested by the absence of extraordinary movements of non-ferrous metals. The risk in front of them is in the dollar price when the global slowdown is felt, says the badysis.
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