Business groups breathe a sigh of relief at prospect of divided government

Lobbying firms tell their clients that two more years of divided government is the best scenario and the most likely outcome of the 2020 election.

Business groups were bracing for a blue sweep that carried the risk of progressive policies and fast-track regulations. Instead, the prospect of a divided Congress and the deadlock that accompanies it is welcomed by many clients.

“In general, my clients are happier when there is a divided government. It’s a little more stable and they can plan better in the long term, even if things take longer to get to the finish line, ”said Amy Smith, policy advisor at Arnold & Porter.

Loren Monroe, director of BGR, said companies often prefer the certainty offered by a slower legislative process, especially when there are familiar faces in senior positions.

“More than anything, the business world craves predictability, so there is some relief in anticipating a new president who has a background in government, a Senate leadership known to both sides of the aisle, and a senior leadership. of the House they worked with longer. the last few years, ”Monroe said.

President TrumpDonald John Trump A Philadelphia Republican official responsible for the vote count said the office was receiving death threats that Biden would call on governors and mayors over the mask mandate The campaign’s election fraud hotline Trump inundated with prank calls MORE enjoyed a unified government for the first half of his term, but without a string of major legislative victories to accompany it beyond tax cuts and criminal justice reform. The next two years were often marked by a deadlock on issues such as COVID-19 aid and police reform.

But lobbyists hope things work differently under president-elect Joe bidenJoe Biden A Philadelphia Republican official responsible for counting the votes said the office is receiving death threats that Biden will call governors and mayors over the mask mandate The Trump Campaign Election Fraud Hotline inundated with prank calls MORE, who spent decades in the Senate and facilitated deals with Congressional Republicans when he was vice president.

Business groups are optimistic that a Biden presidency, combined with a Republican-controlled Senate and a Democratic-led House, could open the door to moderate pro-business policies.

A Republican lobbyist called the divided government “very good” for business.

“It means that the most dramatic and radical permutations of a Democratic sweep are off the table. Based on the process, you’re not going to move towards removing filibuster, adding Supreme Court votes, or adding new states to the union to solidify and make majorities permanent. Democrats in Congress, ”the GOP lobbyist said.

Republican control of the Senate is still uncertain as the majority will not be decided until two second-round elections are held in Georgia on January 5. Mitch mcconnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSunday shows – Biden victory resonates Buttigieg: McConnell will have to decide if he’ll block healthcare, tax plans This election wasn’t a zero-sum game, and it’s going to be even more complicated (R-Ky.) Will retain his post at the 117th Congress.

Smith noted that “Biden’s starting MO will be to work with his fellow Republicans, to work on compromises, not to work to push forward progressive policies.”

Biden’s long career in Washington, coupled with his previous work with McConnell and the President Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiBiden, co-chair, said victories in traditionally red states’ would give her coattails and some leverage ‘with Congress Democrats’ health care hopes hinge on Georgia Senate races Five points to remember from the battle for the Senate PLUS (D-Calif.), AK Street optimistic that the deadlock won’t necessarily mean a legislative stop.

“His senatorial roots, his long-standing working relationship with Chief McConnell and, most importantly, his laser focus on the ground, create a real opportunity to break the legislative deadlock,” said Arshi Siddiqui, partner at Akin Gump.

“When you add Pelosi and McConnell, all of the major players have worked together before, they’re institutionalists and at the end of the day they want to see where they can find common ground,” she added.

McConnell, who was first elected in 1984, was a colleague of Biden in the Senate. Their relationship will soon be put to the test.

“Putting aside the lobby stores or the politics stores is the fact that President-elect Biden and Senator McConnell have a long-standing relationship. I’m sure it hasn’t always been perfect, but they do have a relationship. The relationship between McConnell and Biden will be much better than the relationship between Pelosi and Trump, ”said former Rep. Joseph Crowley (DN.Y.), senior policy adviser to Squire Patton Boggs.

Pelosi had a good relationship with former President Obama and lobbyists expect her to have the same relationship with Biden.

“Certainly having someone who has connections with many senators and certain members of the chamber, I think, can help move the issues forward, especially when you’re looking at a stimulus package and a big reform agenda. COVID relief, ”said the former representative. . Jeff DenhamJeffrey (Jeff) John DenhamEx-RNC, Trump fundraiser Elliott Broidy indicted in secret lobbying scheme Bottom line Bottom line MORE (R-Calif.), Who is now a government affairs advisor at K&L Gates. “I think businesses across the country are willing to step up and see if we get a bipartisan movement.”

House Republicans did surprisingly well on Election Day, shrinking several seats Democrats won in their 2018 midterm and squeezing the Democratic majority.

Thinner margins in House give GOP leader Kevin mccarthyKevin Owen McCarthy The Memo: Trump Loses But Is Not Defeated Republicans Can – And Should – Secure Peaceful Transfer Of Power Sunday Shows Preview: Joe Biden Wins 2020 Election MORE (California) a little more influence than it has had in the past two years.

“The surprise performance of House Republicans strengthens McCarthy’s hand to be more influential in the House,” said Marc Lampkin, president of the government relations practice of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck LLP.

These low margins increase the chances of compromise, lobbyists said.

“With a tightly divided government next year, it will certainly be a difficult environment to push through legislation unless almost all parties have approved it. But Chief McConnell, President-elect Biden and President Pelosi know better than anyone how to legislate and have tackled big issues together in the past. So while there are fewer legislative vehicles, there will be clear avenues for getting things done, ”Monroe said.