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It’s always fun to come back to a course like Bay Hill and see the best players in the world put themselves to the test on a tough track. The day was no different as the field average was about a shot above par, and only a third of the field managed to break par in the round.
In these types of events, the cream seems to rise to the top, which certainly happened when Rory McIlroy set the tone early with a 6-under 66. Bryson DeChambeau stayed on his heels during the morning wave, but finally fell suddenly from his lead. Instead, it was Corey Conners who would catch, pass, then fall back into a tie with Rory on his last hole of the first round.
Several other big names litter the standings with below par laps on Thursday, allowing a lot of movement to happen ahead of the weekend. Bay Hill is one place where the winners usually come from a few behind the leader after Day 1. Let’s see who stands out on the shots won from that side of this group before Friday’s round.
Explanation of strokes won
The strokes won can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans a lot more detail about how a golfer really plays. by measuring each shot against the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, TOUR calculates the average number of strokes it takes for a player to put the ball into the hole from all distances and all situations. If a player beats these averages, he wins hits on the field.
Every situation in golf is different – Strokes won measure how well players are performing against the situation.
In this article, we will discuss a variety of Stroke metrics gained …
- Shots won: off the tee
- Strokes won: approach
- Shots won: Around the green
- Strokes Won: Putting
- Strokes won: ball strike (which is off the tee + approach)
- Shots Won: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, hitting the ball and tee-to-green are the most stable over the long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find benefits in live betting by identifying golfers who hit the ball well, but just don’t drop the putts. Likewise, players with a high SG: Putting may regress in the future.
3 golfers to buy in the second round
If history holds true at Bay Hill once again this year, we need to look no further than those who squeezed under par on Thursday. None of the last five champions have retreated more than five shots to start the second round, highlighting how difficult it can be to climb up the standings on this track. Since we rely on numbers to make our choices, I won’t try to counter them on this story either.
I can’t really advise you to run and jump on the number available, in fact I would probably wait for the morning wave to show some scores, but if I claim an early winner of this tournament, it’s Bryson DeChambeau. . He was someone I had my eye on last week, and he showed some form at times, but he just couldn’t get consistency.
He now enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he performed well, and comes out with a grand 5-under lap where he led the field in winning shots from tee to green. Bryson was way ahead of the field from the tee as expected, but more importantly to me he won more than two strokes with his irons. Bay Hill is a place he can enjoy thanks to his extra distance, but only if his irons and corners are there.
Bryson also has one of the most underrated short games on the TOUR, he did well in those aspects today as he did for him on this course. He never won less than 1.1 strokes on putting in this event and twice exceeded four strokes won on the greens. I love the position he’s in to bring back the hype and get a win this week, but I only wish the bettors could give us a little more.
The first player who stands out for me in this Top 20 is Jordan Spieth. There is still value available in the betting markets at +3300 on FanDuel and just made a big mistake off the tee. He cost himself one of the few scoring holes at Bay Hill when he hit his tee shot in the water on hole 6. That tee shot was one of the main reasons he lost near to. a tee shot on the field.
His approach and around green play was good but not great as it has been in recent events. Spieth won a little more than one stroke on the field with his irons, and was about average for the field around the greens. I expect to see Jordan improve in all areas in the second round, and if that happens it will probably be the last chance for a good bet value on the three-time major winner.
If I go down in the under 1 penny group to get someone to load up and be in contention this weekend, it starts with Justin Rose. He got off to a hesitant start Thursday and even landed a bunker shot on his third hole. His front two-on-nine was pretty much ugly all around, but he really seemed to find something on his interior nine.
Rose’s winning stroke stats are skewed by that opening nine where he put the ball into the water on his approach from the fairway bunker on his second hole and had the aforementioned rod on the next. In total, he only hit two greens on the way out, but turned around and hit eight of his last nine greens in regulation. Even with his struggles early in the round, he managed to manage a sub par and put himself just above the court average in the shots won from the green tee.
I’ll be boarding with Rose in Friday’s second round, especially at the alluring +9000 available on DraftKings. He certainly seemed to find his rhythm after a few early struggles on Thursday, and it’s a course he’s played well in his career with four Top-10s, including three in the Top 3.
3 golfers to melt in the second round
Corey Conners put on a fantastic golf display on Thursday as he came out of the gates with four birdies and an eagle in his first seven holes, before dropping a shot on the last hole of his away nine. He recovered before falling back on his last hole to tie Rory for the lead in the first round.
I don’t want to rain down on his parade with a fade after such a great run, but my concern for Conners is the same every week: his little game. He managed to win more than two shots from the field with his putter on Thursday, which is a fantastic round for a player who currently ranks 118th in putting on the TOUR. This ranking is a nice improvement over the 181st ranking he had last season.
His turn of the green game is no better which will require the very high level iron game he has displayed today throughout the weekend. On two previous trips to Bay Hill, Conners has lost 7.5 strokes on and around the greens in two missed cuts. These types of issues don’t change overnight, and I’m going to put my cards in early so they show up as soon as possible.
There are many ways to get into trouble around Bay Hill, and many times the data gained can be significantly skewed by a bad error in an otherwise solid lap. Unfortunately for Matt Wallace, it wasn’t. Instead, he just managed to make five birdies in the eight greens he hit in regulation.
Wallace carved out a solid 2-under round to open his tournament, but as noted above, he did so without having a lot of hitting the ball. The lack of greens resulted in more than one wasted shot on the ground on approach, and he was also just below par off the tee. Wallace eventually lost shots off the field tee to the green but made up for it with more than three strokes gained with his putter. He certainly has the knack for spinning his ball and making his short, particularly strong game keep helping him, but he’s a fade for me until I see him.
I have always enjoyed Max Homa’s comments and interaction on Twitter and in his podcast during his young career. It’s not often such an open conversation from an active professional athlete, let alone on a daily basis. He converted a big win at the Genesis two weeks ago and turned around for a 22nd place finish in the WGC. I was honestly shocked to see him stay on the pitch for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational as it’s been seven straight weeks of action for Homa.
Despite the tournament’s crazy stretch, he continues to show up and perform well. Homa posted a 2-under 70 Thursday at Bay Hill, and will pitch it in a tie for 15th to start the round on Friday. My concern for Max heading into the second round is that he lost some shots off the field tee to the green today and really struggled with his irons. I don’t know if it was the start of fatigue or just a day off, but Homa lost 1.44 shots on the court with his irons that day.
He managed to save the round with the best putter in the field today, gaining 4.11 strokes with the flat stick. Obviously, this level of hot putter is not sustainable, and unless he finds the rest of his game quickly, he will drop down the leaderboard.
Hits got data for all players in the first round
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