California Governor Newsom faces wall of apathy as Republicans mobilize recall voters

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The young mother glanced through her screen door at three volunteers dressed in matching union t-shirts holding brochures touting struggling California Governor Gavin Newsom. With five weeks to go before the special election to remember, this woman was exactly the kind of voter the door-to-door Service Employees International Union had hoped to reach in their first mass outreach campaign to stop the effort. led by Republicans. to oust the Democrat from office.

“We just have to reach them,” said Victoria Mackey, a member of the SEIU local in 2015, as the voter vows to vote “No” on Newsom’s resignation.

For many months, the effort to recall the Democratic governor was seen as unlikely to be successful in a state where no Republican holds a statewide post and Democratic voters are almost two. times more numerous than Republican voters. But in the last month before the September 14 special election, Democrats face unforeseen obstacles that create many unexpected difficulties as election officials prepare to send ballots to every voter in the state.

Like many other governors across the country, Newsom is once again facing an increase in Covid-19 cases due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant, which has crippled traditional efforts to exit the vote and put parents on the line. the lookout when their children become ready to return to school. The wildfire season also started early with a vengeance – testing voter confidence in Newsom and other heads of state. And the state is facing a historic drought, leading to water shortages and the declaration of a drought emergency in 50 of the state’s 58 counties last month, covering 42% of the state’s population.

Republicans vying to replace Newsom in California recall attacking his handling of Covid-19 in debate

But while the four governors who run the most populous states currently find themselves in varying degrees of political turmoil and scandal, Newsom is the only one facing a recall challenge.

Most worrying for Democrats is the fact that Newsom’s potential withdrawal has sparked a collective yawn from many voters in their party who have much more pressing concerns in their lives.

Poll after poll, Republican voters have shown feverish enthusiasm for the ousting of the Democratic governor. But despite almost frenzied texts, emails and panting cries of “Stop the Republican Recall” by Newsom forces, the Democratic base seems indifferent at best.

“Oh, do they want to take it off? Asked Christian Gutierrez, a young Democrat registered in South Pasadena. And he is not alone. Despite television commercials featuring Democratic stars like Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren warning her party voters to be careful and prepare to fill out their ballots, Democratic strategists are increasingly concerned that many voters in the just throw in the trash because they don’t. Don’t see the recall as a real threat – or even know it’s happening.

“They’re not focusing on that,” said Bill Carrick, a longtime California Democratic strategist. “They’re happy with (President Joe) Biden. They’re happy to… have control of Congress, so they’re not going down so high to be depressed by a recall.”

“Participation is a problem,” Carrick added. “If you’re a Democrat, it’s scary.”

Carrick and Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California, note that it is difficult to predict voter turnout in a special election, let alone one that takes place while voters are distracted by a pandemic and other crises such as forest fires and drought.

“It is very difficult to get people’s attention to a special election on September 14 and that is where the biggest challenge for Governor Newsom lies,” Baldassare said. “At this point, we are seeing more commitment and enthusiasm from people who want to recall Governor Newsom than those who want to keep him. It has raised a lot of questions, even in a blue state like this, on the outcome is likely to be. “

While they don’t have a candidate with the magnetism of former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican who was elected in 2003 when voters recalled Governor Gray Davis, GOP leaders believe the anger directed at Newsom for its initial management of the Covid pandemic lasted year created a real opportunity for their team.

The grassroots effort to collect recall petitions took off after Newsom attracted tons of unflattering media coverage for attending a birthday party at the exclusive French Laundry restaurant unmasked around the same time last year. where he urged residents of the state to stay home and avoid large gatherings.

Many voters, including independents and some Democrats, were angry at what they saw as this act of hypocrisy on Newsom’s part and which heightened frustrations over the Covid restrictions it put in place, that some considered too restrictive and sometimes erratic.

Voters will be asked two questions on the ballot: first, yes or no to whether they want to recall Newsom, and second, choose from a list of candidates to replace him. Forty-six candidates – from all parties – qualified for the ballot, but there are no well-known Democrats vying to replace him.

Recently, much of the attention from the GOP side has been focused on conservative talk show host Larry Elder. But four of the other main Republican candidates vying for the post have also sought to gain the attention of voters by voicing their criticism of Newsom’s leadership on Covid-19 and other state crises during a debate this week. last.

“I think Governor Newsom is worried and he should be,” said Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego who was one of the Republican candidates to participate in the debate. “I think Californians are angry and frustrated.”

Newsom’s allies are playing on Republican candidate support for former President Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in that state, as they seek to galvanize Democrats.

The real concern of being tainted with an association with Trump was fully visible last weekend in Elder’s interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish when Elder objected to being labeled a “radio host. supporting Trump “.

“I haven’t voted for a Democrat since 1976 – and it was Jimmy Carter, and I regret it,” Elder told Smerconish.

“I voted for Bob Dole, I voted for Mitt Romney. I voted for George Bush. I voted for George Herbert Walker Bush. And whoever the flag bearer is in 2024, I will vote for him too. So I’m a Republican and I’ve always voted a Republican. So to call me a radio host supporting Trump – a little unfair, that’s my opinion, ”he said.

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