California Recall: Everything You Need To Know About Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Recall Effort

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Leaders of the recall said Wednesday evening they had far exceeded that target, submitting more than 2.1 million signing petitions to county officials. But now it’s up to those officials, who have until April 29 to finish verifying the signatures and then reporting their results to the California Secretary of State.

A: At this point, it seems quite likely. Newsom’s sudden media interview blitz – and his vow to fight the recall – underscores that his team takes the threat of recall very seriously. Supporters of the recall have organized themselves in all counties in California and have collected over 2 million signatures, so they would have a cushion if some signatures were duplicates or were deemed invalid for other reasons. And so far the signature validity rate is very high – yet another reason he’s likely to qualify. The Secretary of State’s latest report in early February showed that of the signatures verified by county officials to date, 83.7% were valid. The organizers of the recall also hired a third-party company to verify the signatures before they were submitted, thus eliminating many duplicates on the front-end.

Q: If eligible, how long did it take for the reminder to appear on the ballot?

A: No one has a good answer to that yet, as there are a lot of procedural steps to go through before the Lieutenant Governor officially calls the recall election. But sources on both sides of the recall expect it to land on the ballot between August and December. First, there is a mysterious series of next steps.

After county election officials finish verifying signatures at the end of April, the secretary of state has until May to report to counties on whether the recall qualifies. After that, any voter who has signed a recall petition has 30 working days to reconsider and withdraw their signature. Then, county officials conduct a second verification process to determine if there are still enough signatures. If the recall continues, the California Department of Finance and Secretary of State submit a cost estimate that is sent to the Chairman of the Joint State Legislative Budget Committee, Newsom, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, and the Secretary of State Shirley Weber. The budget committee has 30 working days to review the estimate. After Weber’s final approval, Kounalakis would be required to set a date for a recall election that would not be earlier than 60 days from that time and no later than 80 days.

Q: What would voters see on the ballot if they qualified?

A: State voters will be asked two questions. First of all, do they want to vote “yes” or “no” on Newsom’s recall. And two, who should replace him – a question that will likely be followed by a very long list of names, just as it did in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, replaced former California Governor Gray Davis. , a democrat.

Q: Can Newsom enter its own name in the race for question # 2 as a backup plan?

A: No. It is prohibited to do so under the state electoral law.

Q: Newsom was elected in 2018 with almost 62% of the vote in one of the most liberal states in the country. How did he end up in this difficult situation?

A: This is actually the sixth time that Newsom’s opponents have attempted to recall it, demonstrating the polarized climate in America, even in a blue state like California. At first, supporters of the recall were more focused on their ideological differences with the governor. The recall petition, which was drafted before the start of the pandemic, argues that Newsom has failed to adequately address high state taxes, immigration, widespread homelessness, lack of affordable housing and forest fires, among other complaints. But the signature rally collided with anger over the pandemic last summer, drawing a larger group of Californians who were angry at Newsom’s restrictive approach to tackling the virus.

Q: Has Newsom taken a more restrictive approach to managing the pandemic than other governors? Why was so much anger directed at him?

A: Definitely. It instituted the first statewide stay-at-home ordinance last March, and then another round of regional stay-at-home ordinances in early December last year – depending on the capacity of the units. intensive care facilities in different parts of the state. Previously, it had angered some residents of Orange County by temporarily closing overcrowded beaches. Newsom has also been repeatedly sued by religious freedom advocates over his early restrictions on religious services, and he lost some of those cases in the Supreme Court. The recall also drew a broader base of support, in part because many business owners believed Newsom’s restrictions were economically crippling and at times arbitrary. West Coast school districts have also been slow to open, despite Newsom’s efforts to speed up reopening. Newsom has become the most visible target of all this anger.

Q: Why was her visit to French Laundry in Napa Valley so important?

A: There is nothing that voters hate more than the hypocrisy of their leaders. And to his opponents, Newsom looked both hypocritical and elitist when he attended a 50th birthday dinner for a longtime friend, who is a lobbyist, at the Michelin-starred French Laundry last November. At the time, he urged residents to stay home and avoid social gatherings with people outside their homes. For many Californians who were already frustrated with the restrictions, it appeared Newsom was playing by a different set of rules when he visited the restaurant. He’s apologized on several occasions, including in a recent interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper who asked him bluntly, “What were you thinking?” Newsom said: “I haven’t made such a mistake before or since.”

Q: Who is behind the recall effort?

A: The main promoter of the recall is a retired County Sheriff’s Office sergeant named Orrin Heatlie, who was joined by 124 others in submitting the petition. His grassroots group, California Patriot Coalition – Recall Governor Newsom, focused heavily on collecting signatures and worked closely with another group called Rescue California … Recall Gavin Newsom, who raised a considerable sum for this effort. The second group included heavy hitters from the California GOP, including longtime consultant Anne Dunsmore and former California Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro. The California State Republican Party and the Republican National Committee made large donations to support the effort. Other major backers include Orange County entrepreneur John Kruger, real estate developer Geoff Palmer and venture capitalist Douglas Leone.

Q: What are the key metrics to look out for to determine if the recall will succeed or fail?

A: It’s important to remember that Democrats now outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one, giving Newsom an inherent advantage at the polls – if he can get Democrats to come forward and defend him. After the holidays, with anger over the California pandemic at a boiling point, about 52% of likely California voters approved Newsom’s professional performance in a Public Policy Institute of California poll (a drop by compared to 64% last May). But for a recall to take place, 50% of California voters must vote for it. In that poll released in February, only 43% of likely voters disapproved of Newsom and that number could improve as more people get vaccinated and the virus recedes. By comparison, around 7 in 10 voters disapproved of Davis shortly before he was recalled with 55% of the vote.

Q: If the recall is eligible, who should we expect to replace Newsom?

A: There will likely be over 100 names on this list – if not hundreds of names – because the requirements to be entered on the ballot should not be very difficult to meet. The most prominent Republicans in the mix are former Newsom opponent John H. Cox, whom Newsom beat by around 24 points in 2018, and former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer. Richard Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence for former President Donald Trump, also teased a potential run during a recent appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, which could excite voters from Trump in California. (Cox and Faulconer plan to challenge Newsom when he is re-elected in 2022). Considering the inexpensive filing fees and expected low bar for entry, the roster could turn into a pretty wild bunch of characters.

Q: What is Newsom doing to stop the recall?

A: For starters, after largely ignoring shoulders and focusing on his governorship, he’s now moved to a more engaged posture – doing a series of press interviews to try and define his opponents. Democrats have launched a new effort – Stop the Republican recall – the day before the signing deadline earlier this week, and Newsom called supporters of the recall “anti-mask and anti-vax extremists” and “pro forces” -Trump wanting to overturn the last election and we are opposed to much of what we have done to fight the pandemic. ”

President Joe Biden is opposed to the recall, as are many California Democrats in Washington. As Newsom focuses on vaccinating Californians in the coming months, expect to see many of the Golden State’s leading Democrats vigorously defend his record as governor as they work to redefine his image. . Newsom’s current strategy was summed up by his tweet on March 15: “I won’t be distracted by this partisan and Republican recall – but I will fight it.”

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