Can the Kansas City Chiefs continue to be lucky?

Chad Henne was the most unlikely of the NFL playoff heroes last week. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback had only run 19 net yards since 2014. Yet on a late-game third critical try against the Cleveland Browns, Henne kind of scrambled for 13 of the 14 yards he needed to convert. Then, in the middle of color commentator Tony Romo secure the football world As Henne would just try to draw the Browns offside with a tough count, Henne executed a clear game on the 4th and short to seal a trip to the AFC championship game.

The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Super Bowl preseason favorite (according to Vegas odds and FiveThirtyEight predictions), the AFC’s No.1 seed and current co-favorites. to win Super Bowl LIV. But their season could have ended last week if they hadn’t been lucky.

The Chiefs were in trouble when starter Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game with a suspected concussion. After all, Mahomes ‘greatness was the driving force behind an offense that finished in Football Outsiders’ Defense Adjusted Offensive Rating (DVOA) top three for three straight seasons. As pre-game favorites, the Chiefs’ probability of winning in ESPN’s model has never dropped below 77.2% – but hang on to a 5-point lead with a quarterback acting in an elimination match felt like you were hanging off the edge of a cliff.

That close shave against the Browns appeared to be a high-stakes version of their 17-14 comeback win over the lowly Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. And their 3-point win over the New Orleans Saints the week before. . The eventual 5-11 Denver Broncos led the Chiefs for much of their Week 13 game, the Las Vegas Raiders made them sweat in Week 11 and they beat the Carolina Panthers by just 2 during week 9.

Even though the Chiefs finished 14-2, they didn’t feel as dominant as they did in last year’s 12-4 campaign. In fact, in the second half of their regular season, the Chiefs went 7-1 despite outscoring their opponents by just 10 points. When you win that many games with an average of 1.25 points, you’re in luck.

As FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine wrote midway through the season, measuring the point differential via Pythagorean expectations is one of the best ways to judge how lucky (or unlucky) a football team has been. . By that time, the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers had won 2.3 more games than their points differential would indicate, making them the fourth luckiest 8-0 team since 1960. “When a team wins more than the formula says it ‘should have’, “Paine wrote:” this usually means he has won an unusual number of draw games, which might not be sustainable going forward. . “

Using the same method, how lucky have the Chiefs been in the last eight games of the regular season? The most fortunate:

Since mid-season, the Chiefs have been very lucky

NFL teams with greatest gaps between actual and expected record (based on Pythagoras’ expectations *) in the last eight games of a season, since 1978

			Points
Year	Team	Record	Note	Permit	Pythag W.	Gap vs. Exp.
2020	Chefs	7-1	220	210	4.2	+2.8
2018	Cowboys	7-1	185	173	4.3	+2.7
1989	Oil cruets	5-3	154	214	2.5	+2.5
2008	dolphins	7-1	174	154	4.6	+2.4
2006	Chargers	8-0	244	169	5.6	+2.4
1999	Foals	7-1	200	171	4.7	+2.3
1994	giants	6-2	127	133	3.8	+2.2
1996	Jaguars	6-2	174	182	3.8	+2.2
2008	Bengals	4-3-1	100	147	2.3	+2.2
2016	dolphins	6-2	190	198	3.8	+2.2

This year’s Chiefs have surpassed their winning tally at Pythagoras in the last eight more games than any other team since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Of 1,241 teams that have played a full schedule of eight games in the second half, none was as lucky as the Chiefs.

Halfway through, the Chiefs hadn’t been as lucky as the Steelers – but with 1.3 more wins than expected, they had surpassed their Pythagorean expectations more than all but five of the other teams. After the luckiest stretch race of the modern era, they finished as the third luckiest team to play a 16-game season:

The Chiefs’ full season has been pretty lucky

NFL teams with the biggest gaps between actual and expected records (based on Pythagoras * expectations) in a regular season, since 1978

			Points
Year	Team	Record	Note	Permit	Pythag W.	Gap vs. Exp.
1992	Foals	9-7	216	302	5.0	+4.0
2012	Foals	11-5	357	387	7.2	+3.8
2020	Chefs	14-2	473	362	10.5	+3.5
2004	Steelers	15-1	372	251	11.5	+3.5
2019	Packers	13-3	376	313	9.7	+3.3
2016	Raiders	12-4	416	385	8.7	+3.3
2020	Brown	11-5	408	419	7.7	+3.3
2009	Foals	14-2	416	307	10.8	+3.2
1999	Titans	13-3	392	324	9.8	+3.2
2011	Packers	15-1	560	359	11.9	+3.1

Of course, the chefs do not have fair was lucky. Not only did they have the second most effective NFL offense by DVOA this regular season, but they were the second most consistent week over week. They led the NFL in offensive yards and were sixth in offense.

The problem is on the other side of the ball.

At first glance, the defense of the chiefs was not bad; they finished tied for 10th in runs allowed and 16th for yards allowed. But they had the worst red zone defense in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, allowing touchdowns on 76.6% of opposing players who reached the red zone. The Chiefs were 22nd in defensive DVOA and 24th in weighted DVOA – meaning they were less effective later in the season.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy seem to know. Although their offense was tied for the fourth fewest records in the league, they have played more games per practice and gained more yards per practice than any other team. Despite their reputation for a high-flying, high-scoring offense built around Mahomes’ big arm, the Chiefs were tied for third average possession time per practice.

That explains the dizzying offensive DVOA paired with relatively tight, low-scoring games: the Chiefs use their consistency and attacking skills to keep their defense off the field. Of course, by leaving outsider opponents lying around, they also risk being beaten.

The Steelers fell back to Earth in the second half of the season; they have lost four of their last five regular season games and were ousted from the playoffs in the first round by the Browns. The Chiefs have managed to avoid being upset by that same Browns team – but they’ll likely need all of their skills. and chance to repeat as AFC and Super Bowl champions.

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