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Soaring birth rates in developing countries is fueling the global baby boom, while women in dozens of wealthier countries are not producing enough children to maintain the country's population level, according to the figures. published on Friday.
An overview of birth, death and disease rates, evaluating thousands of country-by-country datasets, also revealed that heart disease was now the leading cause of death in the world.
The Institute of Metrology and Health Evaluation (IHME), created at the University of Washington by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has used more than 8,000 data sources, including over 600 new ones, to compile the one of the most detailed. to global public health.
Their sources include country surveys, social media and open source documents.
He noted that while the global population had soared from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 7.6 billion last year, this growth was profoundly uneven across regions and incomes.
Ninety-one countries, mainly from Europe and North and South America, were not producing enough children to support their current population, according to the IHME study .
But in Africa and Asia, fertility rates have continued to rise, with the average woman in Niger giving birth to seven children in her lifetime.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrology at IHME, told AFP that the most important factor in determining population growth was education.
"It depends on socio-economic factors, but it depends on the education of the woman," he said. "The more a woman is educated, she spends more time in school, she delays her pregnancy and so will have fewer babies."
The IHME found that Cyprus was the least fertile nation in the world, with the average woman giving birth only once in her life.
In contrast, women in Mali, Chad and Afghanistan have on average more than six babies.
– Less mortality, more disability & # 39; –
The United Nations predicts that there will be more than 10 billion humans on the planet by mid-century, which broadly corresponds to the IHME forecast.
This raises the question of how many people our world can support, called "carrying capacity" of the Earth.
Mokdad said that while people in developing countries continued to grow, their economies generally grew.
This usually has a training effect on fertility rates over time.
"In Asia and Africa, the population continues to grow and people are moving from poverty to better incomes – unless there are wars or unrest," he said.
"Countries are expected to come out better economically and fertility is more likely to drop and stabilize".
We are not only billions more than 70 years ago, but we are living longer than ever before.
The study, published in the medical journal The Lancet, showed that men's life expectancy increased from 48 years to 71 years to 71 years. Women are now expected to live at 76, compared with 53 in 1950.
Living longer brings with it our own health problems, as we age and deteriorate, adding to the burden on our health systems.
IHME said heart disease was now the leading cause of death in the world. In 1990, neonatal diseases were the leading cause of death, followed by lung diseases and diarrhea.
Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan had the highest rates of death from heart disease, while South Korea, Japan and France were among the lowest.
"There is less mortality from infectious diseases as countries get richer, but also more disability as people live longer," said Mokdad.
He pointed out that although the number of deaths from infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis has significantly decreased since 1990, new noncommunicable killers have taken their place.
"Some behaviors lead to an increase in cardiovascular disease and cancer.Obesity is the number one – it increases every year and our behavior contributes to it."
In Africa and Asia, fertility rates continue to grow as Europe and North and South America do not produce enough children to support their current populations
Fertility rates continue to rise in many African countries, the study showed
There are not only billions more people on Earth than 70 years ago, but we are also living longer than ever before
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