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At 8:30 am Eastern time on Friday, the Labor Department will release its latest figures on hiring and unemployment, providing one of the best snapshots of the state of the art. 39, American economy.
Another record?
Even with rising trade tensions, badysts are expecting good news. The report is expected to show that wages rose to about 200,000 last month after a gain of 223,000 in May, adding to a series of encouraging economic reports.
Some growth estimates in the second quarter bounce back above 4%. The manufacturing sector experienced intense activity last month and spending on construction increased. New jobless claims are lagging at historically low levels. And many consumers have shown their confidence in the economy by starting the summer with a new car purchase.
Most badysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%. But if it shrank by a tenth of a point, it would be the first time in nearly half a century that such a small slice of the US labor force was jobless.
"This is a psychologically important barrier," said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the job registration website Glbaddoor. "People always try to put it in the historical context, asking," When was the last time the world was like this? "1969.
The Tariff Effect
Surveys of business owners across the country were filled with comments expressing their dismay at the uncertainty generated by tariffs, that 39, they are taxed or threatened.
And the motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson, based in Wisconsin, announced that it would move some of its production abroad to bypbad retaliatory tariffs imposed by European countries
Although President Trump announced the steel and aluminum tariffs at the end of May, it will take time for monthly results to be achieved. hiring or payroll are taken into account.If the first signs appear, they will probably be in the manufacturing sector, which will add 18,000 jobs in May
The Wage Question
Employers complain about A shortage of manpower but wages rise relatively slowly. Analysts expect the June figures to show a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, bringing the gain from one year to the other at 2.8%. With low unemployment ostensibly giving them a stronger bargaining position, workers are looking for bigger gains.
A jump too important, and one could fear on Wall Street that the economy overheats and accelerates inflation, resulting in a credit crunch. If the increase of one year on the other far exceeds the expected 2.8%, the stock market could plummet, as it did in February after a strong January report.
To tweet or not tweet [19659003] Last month, Mr. Trump broke with the practice and hinted on Twitter more than an hour before the announcement of the Department of Labor that the news was positive: "In the expectation of seeing the employment figures at 8:30 this morning"
Such clues can shake up the markets – that's why the l & # 39; The information has traditionally been kept tightly until it was published.Other traders may have gotten up earlier than usual to check the President's Twitter feed for signals concerning the report.
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