Cardinals and Goldschmidt catch the fever of extension

The fever of the extension touches the major baseball. As a result of agreements that have short-circuited the much-anticipated free agencies of veterans Nolan Arenado and Mike Trout, and delayed the appearance of those of Alex Bregman, Aaron Hicks, Eloy Jimenez, Miles Mikolas, Luis Severino, Blake Snell and others, The last player to withdraw from the market is Paul Goldschmidt. 31-year-old Cardinals first-baseman D & # 39; agreement an extension of $ 130 million over five years for the 2020-2024 seasons, a generous agreement in light of the procedures for the icy independent agent of the past two winters.

Three and a half months after being traded by the Diamondbacks in exchange for Kelly Carson, Luke Weaver, Andy Young, and a B-choice of Competitive Balance, it's still odd to hit "first cardinal base player" in Liaison with Goldschmidt, who has Over the course of his eight-year major league career, he has become the face of the Diamondbacks franchise. An eighth choice from Texas State University that has barely gone round the list of potential candidates – The Baseball Flyer ranked it 10th in 2011 (a "two-star prospect"), while America's baseball ranked him 11th, good enough to do their annual Prospect Handbook but not even the top 10 of the team released during the winter – he still formed six star teams, won three gold gloves, finished in the top three from voting to the greatest number of votes three times and helped the team to qualify twice in the Arizona playoffs. However, the Diamondbacks could not qualify for the Division Division in 2011 or at 17 '' despite Goldschmidt's gains four times and their .688 raise in eight post-season games.

Even due to Arizona's lack of success in the playoffs, this is the type of player that most teams would try to block in the long run. The Diamondbacks announced to Goldschmidt an extension of $ 32 million over five years by March 2013. In February 2017, team CEO Derrick Hall said he hoped he would "stay here a long time", but by January 2018, it seemed like they were getting ready for life without their slugger star.

As has been noted time and again in this space, Goldschmidt started the 2018 season slowly, beating 0.339 with just 95 wRC + until the end of May, and showed signs of slowing the speed of the bat because of his inability to catch up with the high speed. stitching fastballs, displaying only a .238 WOBA vs. hot heaters 95 mph or more (instead of .324 and .319 in the previous two seasons, and in the 14th percentile). His production seems to have been drastically reduced by Chase Field's new humidifier (he beat .420 with a 108 wRC + at home, .638 with a distance of 180 wRC +), but all things considered, he finished at. 290 / .389 /. 533 with 33 homers, a 145 wRC + (one point more than his career average) and 5.1 WAR, 0.1 second behind Freddie Freeman for first place. In terms of projections, he was second in our recent positional power ranking released on Monday.

While the Diamondbacks exercised Goldschmidt's $ 14.5 million option for this season last October, they did not go very far in another extension. They would have discussed one before exchanging it, but the team focused on reducing the payroll and transitioning to rebuilding mode – after a difficult September and a difficult season in which she spent 125 days with a first place in the West of the NL – overcame his desire to pay him close to the market value. Or maybe he did not just want to stay with them as they reorganized themselves, after seeing the team say goodbye to such personalities as JD Martinez, Patrick Corbin and AJ Pollock took only two commitments exceeding $ 8.25 million: an extension of $ 24 million over five years for Ketel Marte, signed last March, and a $ 21 million three-year contract for Eduardo Escobar last October.

The Diamondbacks have entrusted Goldschmidt with a team willing to extend it. "As you all know, over the years we have been fortunate enough to sign contracts with players who still have one year of contract and keep them," said Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. in January. He was referring to Mark McGwire (acquired in July 1997), Jim Edmonds (March 2000), Scott Rolen (July 2002) and Matt Holliday (July 2009), some of whom were actually only a few months old, but the point remains on the agenda. Jason Heyward (November 2014) was a remarkable actor, One That Got Away – and, from St. Louis' point of view, probably for the better, based on the evolution of his contract with the Cubs.

Although the Cardinals have not completely avoided making significant commitments to free agents in the last few years, including the $ 80 million deal signed by Mike Leake in December 2015 and the US $ 40 million deal. $ 82.5 million agreement signed by Dexter Fowler a year later, they failed. land a leading impact player just as surely as they have failed to qualify for the playoffs in the last three seasons. Last winter, they failed to convince Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins to waive his no-trade clause (although they successfully released his teammate, Marcell Ozuna). This winter, they were spectators of free agencies Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Instead, they opted for Goldschmidt, who is five years older than one of the aforementioned pairs, not to mention much less controversy, and of course much cheaper. Indeed, with the evolution of the free agents market during the last two winters, Goldschmidt, entered the market after its 31 year season, may have been poorly received. Over this period, only eight players over the age of 30 signed a contract of more than two years and only two of them received more than $ 60 million in guaranteed cash:

It is highly unlikely that Goldschmidt was able to carry the momentum of Martinez, who scored 45 goals in just 119 games with the Tigers and Diamondbacks by beating .690, in full attack. And although his resume may be more comprehensive than Martinez's or any of the other previous players in terms of All-Star and Gold Gloves selections (although McCutchen is a former MVP winner), he is interesting to note that only one player entering his age- 32 season has reached an agreement of more than three years.

For that alone, five years and $ 130 million – a contract with total protection against trade, but no opt-outs – seems rather generous. Harper, Machado and Eric Hosmer, who was only 28 at the time of signing his 144-year contract with the Padres, are only 28 years old. The latter has an average annual value of only $ 18 million, against $ 26 million for Goldschmidt.

Run Goldschmidt's figures with our contract estimator with the same conservative parameters as the ones I used for Arenado ($ 8.0 million per WAR and an average annual inflation rate of only 3%, compared to 9 million or more and at 5%) gives the following results:

That's about 20% higher than Goldschmidt's actual expansion, and that does not even include his relatively underpaid salary of 2019, in which he is expected to produce 5.1 WAR and $ 40.8 million of value while being paid $ 14.5 million.

It is therefore an estimate. To use an inherently more conservative performance projection provided by Dan Szymborski via ZiPS, more generous assumptions in terms of dollars per gain and inflation are needed, as $ 8 million for the first and 3% for the last one. carry that value to $ 101.4 million. during those same five seasons. Here's what $ 9 million per win (still well below Matt Swartz's estimates in 2017) and 5% inflation – numbers that could lead to eyebrows given the recent perception of how the agent market works free – look like this:

The big difference between the two estimates comes not only from the rise in the dollar, but also from the value of Goldschmidt's reference season and the pace at which it declines, assumptions that are not easy to make even when we are do not view of the season immediately at hand. In a year's time, Goldschmidt's deal might sound like a good deal suggesting he has the last power of the first estimate, or an overpayment if what we saw in early 2018 turns out to be the beginning of his slide. Even taking into account the forecasts, the Cardinals were ready to go beyond the more generous assumptions, just like the Rockies in regards to Arenado.

Regarding the Cardinals, Goldschmidt's continued presence could prompt them to investigate Jose Martinez's market, which they have just signed for a two-year extension of $ 3.25 million corresponding to his first year eligibility for arbitration. The 30-year-old right-handed swinger, who made 84 starts to first base last year and 42 more to the right field, can hit (130 wRC + in 915 AP), but he's not really a defender and the team Fowler and Tyler O'Neill have now gathered in one corner, while Ozuna and Harrison Bader occupied the other two positions in the field. That said, Ozuna may be a free agent next winter, so the team may take a long-term view of bottling.

Even with Arenado and now Goldschmidt out of the market, the harvest of free agents next winter is not sterile, although it will not be as strong as it would be with the pair. Other extensions could be in progress but for now, Jose Abreu, Xander Bogaerts, Nicholas Castellanos, Khris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Didi Gregorius, Ozuna, Yasiel Puig and Anthony Rendon appear to be the main actors available, with Martinez joining them if he retires. Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander top the list of pitchers. Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg are among those who have opted out, while several other pitchers have the opportunity to choose a club.

All in all, this looks like an extension of the old school, the Cardinals enclosing a stable corner stick in their mid-thirties rather than wagering on a faster and more expensive combination of youth and youth. Athletics. We'll see if going against the tide will help restore their once-seeming perennial presence in the playoffs.