[ad_1]
Almost three years ago, during a rainy November night in Cleveland, it seemed like the Chicago Cubs were preparing to found a dynasty. But that promise is gone. The Cubs had an optimistic chance of playing in the playoffs by 69% on Sept. 17, but a four-game losing streak by their archival rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, nearly ended their hopes. They were eliminated from the playoff competition on Wednesday night. And as the Cubs collapse, the Cardinals are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
While the Cubs' director, Joe Maddon, is often cited as a possible culprit, he is a useful scapegoat: there are many reproaches to share. And perhaps the most important area separating Cubs and Cardinals is pitching. No team has been as productive in the draw as the Cardinals since 2012 – and few clubs have been worse than the Cubs.
Since Theo Epstein was hired to head the Cubs' baseball operations in October 2011, the Cardinals drafts have allowed baseball to win more victories than substitutes (29.2 WARs out of 117 throwers and signatures), while Cubs ranked 25th (2.2 WAR on 105 throwers and signed), according to Baseball-Reference.com data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight.
An important part of the Cubs' rebuilding strategy was to use their high-end picks, the spoils of tanking, on player position perspectives – and then fill in the gaps through independent investment agencies with their big-box dollars. and through transactions. But Chicago produced zero WAR – or worse – of six of the seven projects from 2012 to 2018, putting tremendous pressure on the organization to fill the gaps. Free will is an inherently risky way to improve a team, especially as players are rejuvenating and Cubs have the oldest collection of major launchers with an average age of 31.1 years.
No club has spent more money on payroll this year than the Cubs ($ 128.4 million), and with a modest return on this investment: The Cubs are only 11th in number of wins over the replacement by launchers. The external additions of Yu Darvish, Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels and Tyler Chatwood each have pitch marks independent of the placement of pedestrian zones; none has a grade better than 4.18 on the season. Epstein's quest for "pitching," which he scribbled on a whiteboard at the office in 2016, also cost the Cubs, Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez a lot of hope.
Today's modeling organizations do not just rebuild successfully (see the Houston Astros) – and many do not even have to (see Yankees, Rays and Dodgers). They create drafts and develop success stories. These clubs have proven that they can write well without having to choose the top of the draw, and they can benefit more from major league pitchers they are acquiring, like Houston with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
The Cardinals, with only one losing season this century, did not need to resort to tanking. They used their drafts to select quality weapons – and the value of their local throws was on display last weekend in Chicago.
Thursday, Jack Flaherty helped St. Louis win a victory with eight dominant rounds. Flaherty – drafted by the Cardinals with the 34th overall pick in 2014 – became one of the best baseball pitchers of the second half of the season, owning a 1.00 ERA on his last 15 starts. Michael Wacha, one of the Cardinals' top picks in 2012, started Friday's game and allowed one point to run four runs. Rookie Ryan Helsley, a fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft, took the win with a non-scoring throw-in. Helsley has a test point average of 2.23 to 36 1/3 innings this season. And on Saturday, Dakota Hudson (16-7, 15:45) entered the match.
Kimbrel, who signed a $ 43 million contract in June to help the troubled office in Chicago, was on the other side of Saturday's seesaw. With his team up 8 to 7, Kimbrel participated in the ninth inning and immediately allowed for home runs – a devastating sequence for the Cubs. Kimbrel has a 6.53 ERA over the season.
Cubs are well aware of their pitch deficiency and have taken steps in recent years to improve their drafting and development capabilities. The Brailyn Marquez perspective is a first success story. Darvish has been excellent in the second half of this season, but he should be an ace, given his $ 126 million deal. But other clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros have advanced or have beaten the Cubs.
This group of Cubs will always be remembered for issuing a title, but fans could be more focused today on the dynasty that could have been, had they followed the pattern of rival Cardinals in the editorial and the development of launchers.
Check out our latest MLB forecasts.
[ad_2]
Source link