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Now is not exactly the best time to be Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz QB. The former MVP candidate played miserably in Monday night’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, scoring 22 for 41 with 157 yards (3.8 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception and a 60.7 passer rating. in the first 58 minutes of the match before. supplementing his stats with a totally meaningless TD pass. According to our QB Elo metric, this was Wentz’s ninth below average performance in 11 starts so far this season and his fourth in a row. (The Eagles actually won one of those four, but only because Dallas quarterback Ben DiNucci was just as bad). According to the scheduled added expected points (EPA) adjusted to the per game schedule, Philadelphia saw the NFL’s third worst passing offense of 2020 – only the Jets and Broncos are worse – which is a big reason why the playoff odds of the Eagles are down to 23 percent despite playing in the worst division in football history.
How did a quarterback who was the league’s toast in 2017, starting the majority of games for the team that ultimately won the Super Bowl, hit rock bottom like this? In truth, Wentz’s struggles have been building for some time now. Aside from a brief surge at the end of last season, his QB Elo rating (relative to an average starter) has dropped very steadily from his November 2018 high:
Wentz’s decline accelerated in 2020, however. His total quarterback (QBR) rating fell from 62.8 (11th best in football) in 2019 to 49.6 (27th) this season. On a per game basis, he sees new career worst scores in passing yards (231.0), yards per attempt (6.0), interceptions (1.4), sacks (4.2) and percentage d completion (58.1%). In terms of passer rank, Wentz’s decline in the previous three seasons – from 98.3 for the 2017-2019 seasons to 73.4 this year – is one of the five biggest drops suffered by a QB in the NFL since 1950:
In some ways, Wentz’s descent reflects the overall deterioration of the Eagles roster since Super Bowl LII. A team that once brimmed with talent – built solid from the trenches – is now castaway with wounds, with one of the worst offensive lines in the league, an inexperienced receiving corps, and one of the least profitable rosters in the league.
So no, Wentz doesn’t have much to work on. And coach Doug Pederson’s play appeal didn’t always put Wentz in a position to succeed. But as analyst and YouTuber Brett Kollmann points out in his Wentz breakdown, it also fueled some of the quarterback’s worst impulses. Specifically, Wentz has tended to play entirely too much “hero ball” this season: According to NFL Next Gen stats, he forced 18.5% of his passes to narrow coverage – defined as throws where the receiver was less than a yard apart when the pass arrives – which is the fifth-highest share of any qualifying QB in 2020, and he’s only finishing 37.2% of those passes (well below the average of the league 65.4% on all throws). Overall, Wentz attempted the league’s fourth toughest collection of shots according to Next Gen Stats, with an expected completion rate of just 61.8%.
Unlike Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who also tries tough shots but completes more than he “should”, Wentz actually does a lot less passes than he should – even after adjusting to their. difficulty. According to the Next Gen Stats estimate, Wentz’s completion percentage is 3.7 points lower than we would expect based on the characteristics of his throws alone, the third biggest deficit in the NFL. Due to his poor mechanics, which hamper accuracy – nearly 29% of Wentz’s throws have been off target – and even worse decision-making, Wentz has grown from one of the most promising young QBs in the world. NFL to one of the worst QBs in the league. , full stop.
But due to the way his contract is structured, the Eagles have essentially no choice but to move forward with Wentz in the lead. Philly would face a huge dead-limit penalty if Wentz were cut or traded in 2021, which could explain why Pederson appears determined to deal with rookie Jalen Hurts’ expansion in playing time despite Wentz’s struggles. Instead, the team are trying to figure out how to maximize Wentz’s talent while curbing some of the terrible mistakes that have plagued the majority of his 2020 season, especially in recent weeks.
As we mentioned earlier, the Eagles still have a 23% chance of making the playoffs – which is both disappointing (given the epic weakness of the NFC East) and far greater than a Team 3. -7-1 is entitled to expect. Their remaining schedule isn’t exactly easy, although it’s roughly comparable to Washington’s and the New York Giants. (The Cowboys actually have the easiest schedule by far of any NFC East team, according to their opponents’ opposing Elo average rating, though they are also probably the worst NFC East team.) Despite Wentz’s struggles , Philadelphia can still save its season. But its historic regression has helped turn what could have been a picnic into an uphill battle in the long run.
FiveThirtyEight NFL Elo Rankings
How each team ranks Week 12 of the 2020 season, according to our forecast adjusted by quarterback
| Luck of … | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Starting QB | QB Rk * | Elo Rating | Proj. Victories | Make playoffs | Win Div. | Earn SB |
| 1 | Chefs | Mahomes | 1 | 1762 | 13.9 | > 99% | > 99% | 27% |
| 2 | Steelers | R’lisberger | 5 | 1701 | 14.8 | > 99 | > 99 | 17 |
| 3 | Packers | Rodgers | 2 | 1640 | 11.7 | 99 | 97 | 9 |
| 4 | Seahawks | Wilson | 6 | 1607 | 11.5 | 99 | 68 | 5 |
| 5 | Titans | Tannehill | 9 | 1606 | 11.3 | 97 | 87 | 3 |
| 6 | Invoices | Allen | 8 | 1599 | 10.9 | 93 | 84 | 3 |
| seven | Bucs | Brady | ten | 1585 | 9.7 | 77 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | Rams | Goff | 15 | 1573 | 10.1 | 89 | 27 | 2 |
| 9 | Foals | Rivers | 16 | 1567 | 9.9 | 55 | 13 | 1 |
| ten | Vikings | The cousins | 14 | 1535 | 7.7 | 30 | 1 | <1 |
| 11 | Brown | Mayfield | 24 | 1534 | 10.5 | 79 | <1 | 1 |
| 12 | 49ers | Mullens | 28 | 1530 | 7.8 | 28 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | dolphins | Tagovailoa✚ | 25 | 1522 | 9.3 | 48 | 13 | <1 |
| 14 | The Saints | Hill | 31 | 1519 | 12.2 | > 99 | 98 | 25 |
| 15 | Ravens | Jackson✚ | seven | 1518 | 9.8 | 68 | <1 | 2 |
| 16 | Raiders | Carr | 13 | 1503 | 8.9 | 45 | <1 | <1 |
| 17 | Patriots | Newton✚ | 19 | 1500 | 7.6 | 13 | 3 | <1 |
| 18 | Cardinals | Murray✚ | 4 | 1498 | 8.6 | 51 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Texans | Watson | 3 | 1496 | 6.5 | 2 | 1 | <1 |
| 20 | Falcons | Ryan | 17 | 1492 | 5.9 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 21 | Bear | Tubes | 20 | 1479 | 7.6 | 24 | 2 | <1 |
| 22 | Panthers | Bridgewater | 12 | 1459 | 5.5 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 23 | Broncos | Lock | 29 | 1459 | 5.9 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 24 | Washing. | Black-smith | 21 | 1438 | 5.8 | 29 | 29 | <1 |
| 25 | Chargers | Herbert | 11 | 1435 | 4.9 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 26 | Eagles | Wentz | 26 | 1413 | 5.4 | 23 | 23 | <1 |
| 27 | giants | McCoy | 23 | 1397 | 5.9 | 39 | 39 | <1 |
| 28 | the Lions | Stafford | 18 | 1339 | 5.1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 29 | Cowboys | Dalton | 27 | 1338 | 4.9 | ten | ten | <1 |
| 30 | Jaguars | Glennon | 22 | 1292 | 1.9 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 31 | Jets | Darnold | 30 | 1268 | 0.9 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 32 | Bengals | Allen | 32 | 1259 | 3.5 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Looking forward: Week 13 doesn’t offer much in terms of any real successful contests, but the game that best mixes up good, evenly equaled teams is probably the Bills-49ers – the last of two Monday night football games next week. . San Francisco was struggling hard since regular starter Jimmy Garoppolo was lost in Week 8, but the Niners picked up a surprising road victory over the Rams on Sunday to save a playoff chance. Ranking 13th in the schedule-adjusted EPA and Pro-Football-Reference.com’s straightforward scoring system, San Francisco is better than its record of 5-6 (although backup quarterback Nick Mullens turned out to be nothing if not mediocre). And if nothing else, it should be interesting to see the Niners play “the host” in their improvised setup at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. On the other side, Buffalo has just come off a typical Week 12 outing of its 2020 season: inconsistent, but good enough to win. The 49ers should pose more challenges than the Chargers, however; the big matchup is Buffalo QB Josh Allen against the San Francisco defense, who ranks 11th in the EPA. A win for the Bills would almost clinch a playoff berth, while the Niners could take their playoff hopes to 41% (despite their division stacked) with the win. Elo gives Buffalo a slim advantage here, 54 percent to 46 percent. Elo’s spread: Ox -1
Discover our latest NFL predictions.
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